Blacktype Blog

Big Surprise?

2008-10-14T11:05:00.002-04:00

Nope.

Raise your hand if you're shocked to find out Big Brown is being retired at three due to injury. Looks like we'll never get to see the big Curlin/Big Brown match race we were all looking forward to in this year's Breeder's Cup Classic. But guess what, Big Brown will soon be ensconced in a breeding shed where starry-eyed owners of classic racemares will spend millions for the chance to breed and race one of his sore-footed offspring.

Yay?

Big Brown Got Served

2008-08-13T15:56:00.001-04:00

Dutrow danced, then Jackson danced, and now it's on!

Yeah, yeah...so it's been a while. I've been busy. So shoot me.

Weekend preview

2008-06-13T12:18:00.003-04:00

And if you thought racing was all over for the year after last weekend, well, you were wrong. For your racing pleasure this weekend we have “Stephen Foster Super Saturday” live from Churchill Downs, as well as a bundle of other high class stakes races from across the country. I’ll profile a few of the more interesting ones (from my point of view anyways):

Stephen Foster Handicap

This week’s feature race showcases the triumphant return of Curlin. Fresh off a romp in the Dubai World Cup and with his sights set on Cigar’s all time winnings record, there’s not much to say against the champion. Steve Assmussen groused about the imposition of the relatively high 128 pound weight on his horse, but really, does anyone think he doesn't deserve that kind of handicap? Even if I didn’t love him to death, I’d have to pick him to win.

Primary among the mighty Curlin's contenders is Einstein, who if this race was run on any other surface, I might be backing instead of the favorite. I was truly bummed not to see Eistein on Belmont day and I currently think he's the best turf horse running in America. That being said, he'll be running on dirt come Saturday. His trainer, Helen Pitts of "I used to train Curlin" fame, decided that he needed a race to fit in his training schedule and that the Stephen Foster was it. His last time on dirt (the Donn Handicap last February) he ran an unimpressive, but not awful, sixth. Mind you, he's won over Churchill's dirt track before, so I've decided not to accord the racing surface all that much thought.

Brass Hat has been consistently in the money this year, but hasn't won anything since last September. Sam P, a one time 2007 Kentucky Derby contender, looks to regain his previous form and bounce off of a recent allowance win. Grasshopper underperformed on the Preakness undercard, finishing 5th. Whether that was just a flub or the shape of things to come remains to be seen. Delightful Kiss comes off a second place finish in the one mile Blazing Sword Stakes. Keep an eye on hard knocking former-claimer Red Rock Creek, who is full of consistency.

1. Curlin
2. Einstein
3. Sam P

Northern Dancer Stakes

Everything old is new again as the primary contenders of this year's Kentucky Derby face off in this grade III race on the Stephen Foster undercard. Heading the list of contenders is my one time baby, Pyro. He'll be meeting up with former competitors Visionaire, My Pal Charlie, Texas Wildcatter, Unbridled Vicar and Recapturetheglory. So, I'm taking the track of betting this race as if it were the Derby (minus some significant competition).

1. Pyro
2. Visionaire
3. My Pal Charlie

Fluer de Lis Stakes

I love (love, love) Hystericalady. That being said, I don't think this distance (9 furlongs) is right for her. Meanwhile, Cowgirls Don't Cry comes into the race off a win in the mile long Shuvee Handicap. Peach Flambe impressed me in the Cicada at this very distance, and though she was 4th last out on the Preakness undercard, I'm willing to give her a nod today. Apparently ignored by the cognescenti is Kathleens Reel, who has shown she can fight for the finish of a 9 furlong race before (finishing 3rd in the Sixty Sails Handicap).

1. Peach Flambe
2. Hystericalady
3. Kanthleen's Reel

Affirmed Handicap

All the talk in this race seems to be about Two Step Salsa, who was a solid winer his last time out in the Lazaro Barrera Memorial, but who will be trying distance for the first time today. It's one of my rules not to pick a horse in a route race who's never tried two turns. Now, sometimes this does bite me in the behind and a horse I would have labeled a confirmed sprinter turns out to be able to hold off a late challenge. But, knowing next to nothing else about this horse, I'm going to go with my normal picking style. Meanwhile, Dixie Chatter just couldn't catch up to Two Step in the Barrera. Perhaps an added furlong or two might give him some more time to shine. One horse I do know quite a bit about is Tres Borrachos. He didn't perform like I thought he would in the Preakness, but it took a stumbled start to put him in that position. I think he's got a good chance at returning to top form here. Trevor's Clever won by a neck his last time out at the slightly longer distance of the Alydar Stakes (wouldn't it be funny if he won both the Alydar and the Affirmed?).

1. Trevor's Clever
2. Tres Borrachos
3. Dixie Chatter

Eatontown Handicap

Okay, I'm not actually going to hanicap this one, I just like that one of the fillies is named Beatrix Kiddo. You go girl.

In other news

- If you wanted your own Derby fantasy stable, but were too late to participate in the Road to the Roses, you can now play the Road to the Breeders Cup!

- My Belmont pictures, though now in, were not what I had desired them to be. They will require some cleaning up (and significant whittling down) before I’m willing to post them here.

- Kent Desormeaux and Rick Dutrow have apparently mended their fences about Kent’s ride on Big Brown in the Belmont. For those who were asleep the past week the argument goes like this:
1. Kent pulled Big Brown up in the Belmont, saying the horse didn’t respond to his urging at all and that because of this he thought that there might be something wrong.

2. There was nothing wrong with Big Brown and, in fact, he fought Kent’s braking all through the stretch.

3. A lot of people, Dutrow included, questioned whether Kent really thought there was something wrong with Mr. Big, or if he just pulled him up because he knew he couldn’t win (or even place) and would rather have the race “thrown out” because of the horse’s possible injury than just stand to mark a poor performance by his colt.

Some people have asked my opinion on this situation. My opinion is this- Rick Dutrow is an ass and shouldn’t complain. Yes your horse lost, but it was clear your horse wasn’t going to win at that point anyways. Boo hoo. That being said, I have the sneaking suspicion that Kent’s decision to pull up was not 100% founded upon concerns for his mount. That being said, I refuse to openly criticize Kent, because how am I supposed to know what went on in his mind, and if he did think there might be something off with Mr. Big, than he did the exact right thing. It would take balls to pull up a horse essentially to throw a race, it also takes balls to pull up a horse in a historic Triple Crown performance because you’re concerned for his health and safety. In other words, let’s just move on with our lives people.

This post has two titles

2008-06-09T10:24:00.004-04:00

It's like a choose you own adventure novel! Pick which Belmont story you want to read. I'll give a more comprehensive re-cap later, but I want to be able to upload all the photos I took first. In the meantime, here's the short version(s):

1. OMG! Penny Chenery TALKED to ME!!!

This is the story of the various "Squeee!" type moments I had throughout the day.

So Mr. Blacktype and I arrived early at the track, having met with only one minor mishap on the way there (anyone know what the punishment is for accidentally not paying the toll on the Washinton Bridge?). It was pretty empty, so we were able to get a lot of neat photos. Including one with Hall of Fame Jockey Jerry Bailey, who had just finished a filming episode with co-star Randy Moss (who looked surly, so we didn't ask for his photo). I'd also get surreptitious photos of Hany Goldberg (who cares?) and our man Kenny Mayne. Oh, and this big old guy on a little girl's yellow Vespa. I assumed he was someone important, because only important folks can get away with that sort of nonsense.

But the big news is that Ron Turcotte (Secretariat's jockey, for those not in the know) was there signing stuff. The stuff they were selling for him to sign was pretty expensive, so I didn't bother (if I had known he would be there I would have brought something for signing). Anyways, later I reconsidered my decision, and decided I would go back and at least have him sign my program or something. Well, I walk around the corner and there...there was Penny Chenery (Secretariat's owner, for those not in the know). You'll have to excuse me, but I seriously freaked out for a minute there. Jimmy Gaffney (one of Secretariat's 2 major exercise riders...and no, even people in the know would generally not know who he was) was also there signing. This, I could not pass up.

So, I stood in line (totally missing out on the Just A Game Stakes), to buy an overpriced poster of Secretariat and get it signed by some of my heroes. I ended up having to tell some people not in the know why everyone was standing in line like that. One guy asked me if what I paid was worth it. I answered, "It is for me, because I'm an obsessed horse racing fan." This became a running theme, as people throughout the day kept asking me how I knew certain things (how to bet exotics, the location of Big Brown's birthmark, etc.).

The only thing that would have made this fangirl's day 100% perfect was if there had been a triple crown victory, but that's a story for the other section of this post.

2. Da'Tara- What the Hell?!?

Our tickets were far off on the right hand of the stands as you're looking at them. This put us really close to the final turn, but completely out of view of the finish line. No matter, it was relatively empty and cool there for most of the day, and it served as an excellent "home base" as we wandered around the track seeing different things. The one problem was that it was right by the ESPN broadcast booth. This was neat, because we got to see a bunch of the TV personalities filming, but it was bad because it effectively blocked a significant part of the view of the turn. No matter, I spent the better part of the day figuring out how to set up shots from near our seats so that I was 100% certain to get a good photo of the field as they passed the 3/16 pole. I chose my photo spot carefully and during the post parade I got a slew of shots of various horses from that location, including one of number 6, Da'Tara, who was lathered all to heck.

"Wow," I said to the random woman at my side, "Is that guy fractious." (Note to n00bs: fractious= sweaty and nervous, generally not a good sign).

She replied, "Yeah, a horse sweating that much before a mile and a half race in this heat has no chance."

A moment later she somewhat thoughtfully amended, "Watch him win now just to spite me."

I watched the race, cheering the start like everyone else and following the ant-size horses on their trip around the giant track. I flicked my eyes between their far off forms and the infield tote-board where you could actually see the action on the big screen. For some reason, I couldn't hear the announcer at all. They got to the point where I thought Mr. Big should make his move and under my breath I muttered "Now, go now!" At which point, the horses on the track disappeared from my view. I hunkered down at my rail, camera in place. I focused everything on the pole, ready to shoot the horses as they first came into view. The people around me were shouting, and suddenly a horse swam into my field of vision. I clicked the shutter. Immediately, I started resetting the camera for a second photo, tracking the leading horse. I was completely focused on my photography (it happens to be another obsessive hobby of mine), but I managed to register one fact about the horse in front of me.

He wasn't wearing saddle cloth #1.

A nice man on my left had brought his two young kids to the track. His son, who could not have been more than 7, was standing in front of me. I'm sorry, but I think I may have offended his tender ears.

In the end, it was Da'Tara, a longshot with little to recommend him who was victorious that day. Thanks a lot random woman at the rail, you totally jinxed us all. Or perhaps it was just me, my curse proving true once again. Oh well, better luck next year.

1. Big Brown- last
2. Macho Again- 5th
3. Icabad Crane- 8th

In all honesty, I'm not that broken up about it. Mr. Blacktype was considerably more depressed. I'm glad that I don't have to write this post about how happy I am Big Brown won the Triple Crown, while being secretly a little sad that he did and harboring the silent belief that he didn't really deserve it. And like I said before, now I have a cool T-shirt to wear for Derby day next year (and the year after that? and the year after that?). Plus I have a good reason to drag Mr. Blacktype to the Belmont again the next time there's a potential champion. All in all, it was a great trip and, lack of a crown aside, I wouldn't have missed it for the world.

The last word

2008-06-06T09:57:00.006-04:00

Before I take off for New York, I thought I'd leave you with a parting message intended to make you aware of just how much this trip actually means to me. This is the shirt I've created for tomorrow (so if you see someone wearing it, that's me!):
I've never known a triple crown winner, except what you can glean from grainy black and white photos and thoroughbred biographies. Sometimes I believe it's my curse to never see true greatness in my lifetime (well, that and to have something horrible happen in America every time I go overseas...long story). And I doubt even if Mr. Big was to win tomorrow, that I could really see him in the same way as I do the heroes of my youth. Maybe that's just a prejudice, the way everyone believes things were better "back in the day". People always look at the past through rose colored glasses (or at least, through fuzzy YouTube videos), but that doesn't mean that the past really was any better. If Big Brown takes it all tomorrow, few will say that he could have kept up with the likes of Secretartiat, Seattle Slew or Citation (and they're probably right), but it's entirely possible he could have given horses like Assault, Whirlaway and Sir Barton a run for their money. So he'll belong. Perhaps not in the highest choir of horse racing angels, but certainly up there.

So, if he does win, I'll probably cry. I can be an emotional little sucker like that sometimes. And if he doesn't, well I got a cool shirt out of it all which would remain relevant until next year...or the year after that. There's always a next year in the promised land of the Bluegrass, and that's why I keep coming back to this sport. That's why I keep watching year after year, although nothing in my 28 (soon to be 29) years of life has ever assured me that there would be a Triple Crown winner in my future. That's why I deal with heartrending breakdowns like Eight Belles, becuase I know that without the racing she would never have been given the chance to become more than 'just a horse' in the first place. We don't morn the loss of the pony down the road unless it's our pony; racing lets these horses to belong to all of us. It lets them live forever in our museums and memories and hearts. It gives them the chance, no matter how minute, to be somebody's hero.

So, I'll leave you with what I'd like to see tomorrow, with what we will probably never see the likes of ever again, with what cannot help but make me bawl every single time I see it (or read it, or think about it...yes I'm a sad, sad person).

Greatness is meant for the past, let us live in the now.

Rick Dutrow says something intelligent

2008-06-06T09:18:00.008-04:00

I know, I'm in shock too.

His comments on whether Mr. Big, should he be victorious tomorrow, will not achieve the noteriety of other thoroughbred heroes who have taken the crown:

“I can’t imagine it is important to compare him to horses that have run years ago . . . It might be fun for (the media) to do that. But it just don’t make no sense. He is running with the horses he has been running with and that is all that he can be expected to match up against."

I'm glad he realizes his position. He's sitting on a good horse, a very good horse. But certainly not a great horse. Just a horse who's got some style in a year when very few colts could put up a fight. That doesn't mean he doesn't deserve the crown, heavens no. You race against your generation, and currently he's the best there is in this one. However, in perhaps the most wonderful thing I have ever read him to say, Rick went on to suggest that maybe, just maybe (oh, please), Mr. Big might get pitted against the best of another generation...just to shake things up:

"Hopefully, we get to face Curlin in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. That would be exciting. We are looking forward to that.”

Me too Rick. Me too.

Oh, and incidentally, Suffolk Downs just announced that they will put up a $5 million purse for the Massachusetts Handicap should (1) Big Brown win the Triple Crown, (2) he and Curlin both remain undefeated this year, and (3) they both enter in the race. That's a bit of a tall order, but it's pretty hard to pass up a purse like that should everything else fall into place correctly. This makes me think of the match races of old. You know, despite the lackluster 3-year old season, this very well could end up being a very good year to be a horse racing fan.

Belmont Preview

2008-06-05T16:38:00.011-04:00

As if Big Brown (Boundary-Mien, by Nureyev) needed anything else to boost his spirits for Saturday’s coronation, winning the coveted rail position can’t have hurt. The one spot is the most consistent producer of Belmont winners, and it’s sure to allow Mr. Big the room he needs to get to the front fast. By and large, his competition are closers, so they’re likely to leave him alone regardless. (Speaking of which, where has Spark Candle, Casino Drive’s rabbit, got to? I mean, I don’t think any of us expect that Big Brown won’t push the pace unmolested, but do you want to leave that possibility to chance?) He seems to have recovered fine from his quarter crack. That doesn’t mean that it’s healed, as that will take quite a while, but he did work a bullet on Tuesday, going 5 furlongs in 1 minute and change. He reportedly left his workmate far in the dust. And really, do we expect anything less of him come Saturday afternoon?

Not I.

Mr. Big’s neighbor in the starting gate is a horse named Guadalcanal (Graeme Hall-Bassette, by Quest for Fame*GB). Never heard of him? Neither has anyone else. He’s a maiden (meaning he’s never won a race), and he’s certainly never seen anything like the competition being thrown his way this weekend. Puts me in mind of The Lark Twist (kudos to anyone who picks up on that obscure piece of horse racing trivia). Anyways, he seems to be on the improve lately and the longer the distances get, the better he runs. Last out he was a fast closing second in a mile and a half turf race. That gives him his sole distinction in this field- he’s the only horse to have run farther than a mile and a quarter. Mind you, his Beyer in that race was a ho-hum 82. But in this crazy year, when Derby favorites win from the 20th post position in their 4th lifetime start, can we really throw out anyone? At odds of 50-1, I’ll put a $2 show bet on him any day.

Macho Again (Macho Uno-Go Donna Do, by Wild Again) is, hands down, the most accomplished horse in this field. Sure, Mr. Big has won more, but Macho gets the nod for experience. Do I think he can beat Mr. Big? Hell no, but I am confident that, on a good day, he can show his heels to the rest of this field.

Denis of Cork (Harlan’s Holiday-Unbridled Girl, by Unbridled), fresh off of his third place finish in the Kentucky Derby looks to catch up to Mr. Big this weekend. Can I just say, “Ummm….no.” Sure, he looked pretty good rallying from dead last to finish in the money on Derby Day. But he had a very smooth trip to get there, and really, where did he rally to? That’s right, 3.5 lengths behind a filly who would be dead two minutes later and 8.25 lengths behind his chief competition today. There was a time earlier this year when this guy was looking like one of the best in the country. He still does. Isn’t that sad?

If Casino Drive wins it will be a triumph of pedigree over…well…just about everything else. Casino drive is by Mineshaft, a stallion who, though he did not win the Belmont Stakes (he started his career in Europe and was never entered), is the son and grandson of Belmont winners. His dam is Better Than Honor (who for those of you asleep since 2005, has suckled the last two winners of the race). But it’s hard to get too excited. Let’s face it, a horse undefeated in two starts is still a horse with just two lifetimes starts. Granted, he’s crushed his competition in both of those performances….and its not as though Big Brown had won many more races (try one) before taking the Derby…and his Beyer of 101 (91? 102? Seriously, why can the internets not agree on this number?) in the Peter Pan Stakes is nothing to shake a stick at. If anyone has a chance to put some tarnish on Mr. Big’s crown, it’s this monster.

Da’Tara (Tiznow-Torchera, by Pirate’s Bounty) looked sharp finishing second to Roman Emperor in the Barbaro Stakes on Preakness Day. But this front runner will have Mr. Big to contend with the entire mile and a half around the Belmont oval. If he couldn’t hold on for the win in his previous mile and one sixteenth start, how can you expect him to go even farther on Saturday?

Tale of Ekati (Tale of the Cat-Silence Beauty*JPN, by Sunday Silence) is like a box of chocolates. I’m sure you can finish the quote on your own. On Saturday, will he be the hard closing winner of Wood Memorial? The not to be ignored 4th place finisher of the Kentucky Derby? The abysmal plodder of the Louisiana Derby? Barclay wasn’t too happy with his last workout; and if Barclay ain’t happy, ain’t nobody happy.

Anak Nakal (Victory Gallop-Misk, by Quiet American). In the words of Cloud Strife “…” No seriously, why do they keep putting this horse in stakes races?

Ready’s Echo (More Than Ready-Menekineko, by Kingmambo) is the favorite of my work buddy’s handicapping friend. Apparently his opinion has something to do with the colt’s breeding, which I can’t knock, though I feel its weighted slightly in favor of sprinting (read: not the Belmont). But he's certainly no Casino Drive, or Anak Nakal for that matter, when it comes to the "Who's your daddy?" factor. And I'll admit, he looked good closing in on Casino Drive in the (considerably shorter) Peter Pan Stakes (after an absolutely awful start, too). And...well actually...the more I try to talk about why my friend is wrong to like him...the more I like him. Darn.

I knew Icabad Crane (Jump Start-Adorahy, by Rahy) would do something in the Preakness Stakes, and he ended up doing even better than I thought. WIth a record of 3-0-2 in 5 lifetime starts, it's hard not to like the guy.

I’m gonna go out on a limb here and make a completely silly prediction. I’m going with the same finish we had in the Preakness. Call it woman’s intuition.

1. Big Brown
2. Macho Again
3. Icabad Crane

Betting wise, I think I’ll stick with my gut choices:

$2 on Mr. Big to win (for posterity)
$2 Trifecta of Mr. Big, Macho Again and Icabad Crane
$2 on Guadalcanal to show (for my great uncle who fought at the battle of the same name...mind you, I only have his word for that...and this is the same guy who was convinced that little green aliens/elves were living in his basement)
$2 on Tale of Ekati to show (for my grandmother, who’s 88, and always bets #7)

And some other completely random/weird specialized bet that I haven’t figured out yet, just for the heck of it.

In other news

- Screw the United Postal Service, Kent Desormeaux is shilling for HOOTERS!

- And now for something considerably more tasteful: It was recently announced that Eight Belles would be interred at the Kentucky Derby Museum, joining the ranks of other four prior Kentucky Derby winners. Additionally, Churchill Downs announced that they will be renaming the La Troienne stakes (a three-year old filly race on the Derby undercard) for Eight Belles. I think that’s a great change. I know I groused about the re-Christening of the Sir Barton, but in this case La Troienne (though a fine racemare in Europe) is really best known as a broodmare in the States. Her legacy has been the excellent sons and daughthers she produced, a feat which Eight Belles never got the chance to equal.

The week to end all weeks

2008-06-05T09:39:00.002-04:00

Wow...so this week we have the possibility of:

1. A black man winning the Democratic nomination for presidency

2. The Detroit Red Wings winning the Stanley Cup

3. The first Triple Crown winner in 30 years.

Just...wanted to point that all out. An actual substantive post to come later today (when I'm not so incredibly busy).

Preparations begin

2008-06-02T16:50:00.010-04:00

Some of the bloggers at right have Belmont Day easy. It's just a matter of rolling out of bed and heading to the track for them. We have a good 10-11 hour drive (both ways) to plan, which will necessitate 40 gallons of gas and what looks like two separate forays into Canada. Not that going to Canada is a big deal for those of us born and raised in southeastern Michigan (oh, by the way, GO WINGS!). Anyways, it looks to be a busy weekend, but then that's my favorite type.

-Today we got our tickets to the Belmont in the mail. Miracle of miracles, we appear to have done well in the seat lottery. Here is a diagram of the track with an arrow pointing to the section we'll be sitting in. And right down in front of us (and slightly to our left) is the finish line. Woohoo!
(Okay, actually...turns out it's not that cool. But somebody misspoke when they were talking to me about the tickets over the phone. So, ummm...yeah...we're actually at the top of the stretch...which could be a lot worse...right?)

-I've made up the logo for my shirt, now I have to print it on iron on paper and transfer it. Should have done that yesterday, but I was busy being lazy.

-Ferret boarder contacted (Did I mention I have a ferret? I love her, but she can be a pain.)

-Driving maps to and from NY (and two and from our hotel and the track) printed.

-In the process of figuring out how best to utilize the greater NYC area's transpotation system in order to spend a few qulaity hours downtown (DH has never been).

Still need to obtain: snacks, drinks, rain gear, binoculars (I know I have a pair somewhere), 1000 speed color film for good photos, extra APS film for mini point-and-shoot, small denomination money for toll roads (have no idea how much cash to take in general). Oh yeah, and at some point I should actually try and profile the race entrants (and those of the major undercard races...which look to be full of class).

Comments from the peanut gallery

2008-05-30T08:51:00.001-04:00

Will somebody please put a muzzle on Rick Dutrow?

Horse Racing for n00bs

2008-05-29T15:48:00.004-04:00

Lesson #2- Backstretch Lingo

I’ve had some requests for a brief tutorial in horse racing terminology. I have to admit, the sport does have a language all its own. It’s been around a loooooong time, enough time to develop its own dialect. However, if what you’re looking for is just a basic list of horsey words and their meanings, you can find that elsewhere on the web. Like here. Or here. No, what I’ll provide is a specific subset of terminology that bloggers tend to use, so that readers can better navigate the turbid waters of the internet horse racing community. I’ll start off with a short explanation of the clever names of some of my fellow blogger’s pages (which can be found at right), because they represent an interesting cross section of lingo:

Brooklyn Backstretch- The Backstretch is the term for the stretch of racing surface on the far side of the track (away from the grandstands). It is also used to refer to the barn areas at a track, because these are traditionally located behind the backstretch itself.

Curb My Enthusiasm- A Curb is a type of bit (the metal piece on a bridle that goes in the horse’s mouth). It may also be used as a verb meaning to slow or stop, as basically that is what a bit is used to do to the horse.

Down the Stretch- The Stretch is the piece of track between the two curves which is closest to the grandstand. The finish line is located there. Although they aren’t sloped (usually), horses running the final parts of a horse race are said to be moving ‘down’ the stretch (“And down the stretch they come!”).

Green But Game- A horse who has little training or experience is said to be Green. A horse that tries hard in a race, win or lose, is said to be Game.

Handride- A Handride is a ride performed without the use of a whip. It means that when the horse was racing down the stretch, the jock didn’t feel it was necessary to urge him on to the finish. Basically, an easy win.

Left at the Gate- Horses break from a starting gate in order to maintain some sort of control over the race by having them all theoretically start at the same time. But sometimes the horse just gets caught flat footed when the doors clang open. While the rest of the more precocious field takes off, the sleeper gets Left at the Gate.

Post Parade- This is the name for the walk the horses take from the saddling paddock to the gate. It’s usually done in single file and, for the bigger races, is associated with specific songs (My Old Kentucky Home) and other pageantry. In that way, it is sort of a parade. Basically, though, it’s intended to give bettors (and owners) a last chance to see the horses before the race.

Railbird- The Rail is a term for the fence that runs around the edge of a racetrack. Correspondingly, a Railbird, is someone who’s always sitting at the fence and watching horses…in other words, a horse racing fan.

Superfecta Blog- A Superfecta is a type of exotic bet where, in order to win, you have to pick the first four finishers in a race in order.

Tote Board Brad- The Tote Board is the large screen in the center of a racetrack infield which gives information about wagering, track conditions, and betting pools.

View from the Quarter Pole- This is a reference to one of the many poles situated around the track for measuring purposes. It’s situated a quarter of a mile (2 furlongs) back from the finish line. So when horses hit the Quarter Pole in a race, they have a quarter mile yet to run. There are equally non-inventive names for all the other poles as well (Half Mile Pole,Three Quarters Pole, etc.). Just remember to count backwards from the finish.

And of course…

Blacktype Blog- When a horse becomes a stakes winner his name is forever recorded in breeding charts in BOLD CAPITALS. If a horse places in a stakes race, his name gets written in bold, but without the caps. Collectively, this is phenomenon is referred to as Blacktype. When a horse gets blacktype, or is looking for the same, he’s a stakes quality animal.

El Prado

2008-05-29T11:31:00.005-04:00

Edgar Prado was just named as the jockey for Casino Drive. Although I hadn't mentioned it before, Casino Drive was having a bit of a jockey problem recently. His rider in the Peter Pan Stakes recently was none other than Kent Desormeaux, Big Brown's regular rider. Casino Drive's jock in his only other start was some Japanese bloke, and the owers were concerned about using a jockey unfamiliar with the track or with American racing ways. Up comes Edgar Prado who, if he can pull off a win next week against Mr. Big, will rightfully earn the title (in my mind at least) of Triple Crown Killer. He was also aboard Sarava, who upset War Emblem's bid for the crown back in 2002, and Birdstone, who ran down Smarty Jones in his Belmont Stakes loss.

In other news

-It hasn't been a good week to be a filly. Hell, it hasn't been a good month to be a filly. Nashoba's Key, a quality turf racemare who I was rather fond of, broke her leg kicking the side of her stall in a freak accident and had to be euthanized. To all those racing detractors that say the sport is dangerous for horses, here's proof that just standing in a safe, homely barn can be dangerous to horses. Meanwhile, Panty Raid (and there is an excellent horse name if I've ever heard one), another good mare, was retired from a non-career threatening injury. Why would she be retired from something that was non-career threatening? I have no idea. Her connections say it was because she wouldn't be able to race until fall. Yeah, well, there are races in the fall. There's races in the winter too, and next spring and...oh, just leave it. If they don't try to rush her into a breeding shed for a late cover then I will just have to shake my head in dismay.

-Curlin returned to the track Monday and worked a smooth six furlongs in 1:12.20 in preparation for the Stephen Foster Handicap on June 14th. Wow, a great racehorse not retired before the prime of his 4-year old career. Who would have thunk it?

Next time I think I'll do another Horse Racing for N00bs installment. So which lesson would you rather have: "Who's Your Daddy?", "What's in a Name?", "Horse Race Slang", or "How to Read a Past Performace Sheet".

Fly in the ointment

2008-05-26T11:24:00.010-04:00

Just when you thought it was safe to start talking about the Triple Crown as if it might actually, possibly, maybe (please?) be happening this year, you get news like this. Big Brown, has been diagnosed with a small quarter crack in his left front foot (which for horse trivia nuts, may also be referred to as the 'near fore' hoof). So, what does this mean? Is he out of the game? No probably not, but it is a concern.

A quarter crack, also known a bit more archaically as a 'sandcrack', is basically a split in the hoof wall. Horses hooves are the functional equivalents of the human figernail and although they seem to be made of pretty tough stuff to us (especially when we're getting stepped on or kicked) they really are a piece of soft tissue. In other words, they can split and tear, just like when you break one of your own fingernails. It's not an uncommon injury for a horse, especially given the temendous pressure a thoroughbred racehorse puts on its hooves.

Now, I don't know about you, but when I break a nail I usually just file the rough edges off, and often that is soemthing you can do when a horse gets a little split in its hoof. However, you really can't do that with a quarter crack, because they begin at the coronet of the hoof. That's the name for band of semi-hoof running around the top of a hoof where it meets meets the horse's leg. It's essentially where the hoof is formed, and as I sort of implied above, it's not entirely hoof itself. You could compare it to the 'quick' of your fingernails. So, yes, with a quarter crack the hoof is essentially cut to the quick.

Quarter cracks can vary in severity, and their severity may be measured by both their length and depth. Length as measured by how long the crack appears from looking at it on the outside of the hoof (in Mr. Big's case, about 5/8 of a inch). Depth because there's pretty much no way to tell how deep into the hoof wall a crack goes just by looking at it. It's possible for a crack to split all the way down to where the hoof stops and flesh and bone begins, in which case there is a significant chance of infection. Here's some photos of quarter cracks with a range of severities from Big Brown's personal hoofcare guru (thanks for the link Left at the Gate!).

So, is this life threatening? No. Career threatening? No. Is it painful? Usually not (Big Brown is reportedly fine). Does it hurt his chance of going to the Belmont? Well, his trainer seems to think he's okay to go in now...but these things can change rapidly. Will it hurt his chances in the Belmont? Who can say? This horse has run on cruddy hooves all his life, this shouldn't make for much of a change. He's missing training, and that's never a good thing. His trainer stated in an interview that he may need to blow out the horse on raceday. I think someone must have heard him wrong, because who ever blows out a horse on race day anymore? Regardless, the point is, it's messing with his intensive training schedule, and that, just like with human atheletes, will throw him off his game. Just how much remains to be seen. Rick Dutrow is confident, but then Rick Dutrow's got a nametag that says 'Hello, my name is Arrogant Ass', so that's no big surprise. We'll just have to wait as see if the treament regimen thye've put him on actually works. Only two weeks time will tell.

This is why

2008-05-23T10:10:00.001-04:00

I love The Onion.

What the future holds

2008-05-22T12:00:00.002-04:00

With Big Brown looking to make his 6th lifetime start ever in just over two weeks, with that performance possibly (nay, perhaps likely) to result in the first Triple Crown win in three decades, and with recent confirmation of his stud deal totaling $50 million dollars, the question on just about everyone's mind is what Big Brown is going to do after the Belmont. Clearly, the answer will be different if he loses, but I'm making the assumption at this point that he won't. There will be strong pressure to retire him right away to protect him (and his delicate footsies) from potential injuries that could occur later in the year. Some people would even agree with his connections for making such a decision (note: those people do not love horse racing as a sport).

However, it should be pointed out that there's no reason (other than to avoid potential injury) to retire Mr. Big this early in his 3-year old season. By mid-June all the mares that are going to conceive a 2009 foal already have. So Mr. Big won't have anything to cover until January as it is. Meanwhile, there's some lucrative races coming up that could line his owners pockets a little more. Finally, if Mr. Big does go on to take the crown, there will be only one solitary cloud darkening the horizon of his career (well, aside from his questionable feet), and that would be his failure to meet world-dominating 4-year old Curlin. If the two of them don't gear up for a match in the Breeder's Cup Classic this fall, this fan, at least, will be sorely disappointed. And I'm sure I'm not alone.

No one has yet to make any firm predictions for Big Brown's future, but Rick Dutrow did recently state that he's planning on the Travers and the Classic. Which is just fine by me.

In a completely unrelated matter, I'm thinking about making myself some designer Belmont wear for my big date in New York. Right now I'm caught between two proposed T-shirt ideas:

1. Election themed with stars and stripes (coincidentally mimicking the silks of Mr. Big) and the statement "Big Brown 2008"

2. Three crowns and the phrase "Born in 1979...Waiting ever since"

What do you think internets?

Belmont Bound

2008-05-19T10:12:00.010-04:00

The days are long at Belmont,
Speed they never learn,
And it's many a day since Man o' War
Has looped the upper turn.

Here I am, back to quoting poetry, but it fits, because apparently I'm going to New York. I've been to two Breeder's Cups in my day, but I've never seen a single leg of the Triple Crown while it was happenening. And, though I hesitate to say it becuase of my great fear of hubris, I do actually think it's happening...this year. Oh, yes, we've had close calls in the past, quite a few, in fact, in the last decade. Some, I knew wouldn't make it. When Real Quiet was making his run, I kept pointing at the horse perpetually in his shadow (Victory Gallop) and saying, "Watch that guy, he's gonna nip him in the end." Nip him in the end he did, though just barely. Same with Funny Cide, I really just didn't have any confidence in him. Smarty Jones I thought had a good chance, as good a chance as any I had ever seen. Charismatic was the first horse who ever broke my heart, breaking down in the stretch of that unforgiving mile and a half monster.

But Big Brown...I remember the first Derby edition of the BloodHorse I ever owned had a journalist recapping his favorite Kentucky Derbies. I don't remember the journalist, but I remember what he said about the Triple Crown. He said he thought Secretariat could do it, but he knew Seattle Slew would. At first I took that as him saying he thought Seattle Slew was the better horse, but now looking at it, I think it was really a comment on the various fields they faced. Secretariat knocked heads with Sham (who apart from his disadtrous Triple Crown defeats, was a darn good horse!), Forego (three time Horse of the Year), the persistent Our Native, the speedsters Angle Light and Ecol Etage, and Royal and Regal. Who did Slew face? Quality, yes, but not that kind of quality. And that's why the author thought Secretariat would win, but knew Slew would. It wasn't that the latter was better, just comparatively more dominant in his generation.

And that is Big Brown to a 'T'.

I didn't get to see much of the race, or even the pre-race coverage on Saturday. I was busy being a hostess. But, I did manage to take a few moments out from manning the stove to stand next to a TV turned to the race, and I caught it from about the beginning of the final turn on. I almost immediately was able to pick out Big Brown's now familiar silks. I saw him there, three wide around the curve, and I thought to myself, "Dear God, that horse is loafing." Well, it was either that or he was completely exhausted and being eased by Kent Desormaux, which I thought was highly unlikely. And so, as the field whipped into the straight away I found myself menatlly whispering, "Now. Now, is the time. Go right now!"

He heard me. He went. Race over. All that was left was to lean in close to the screen to hear the final order of finish. Back to the kitchen for the majority of the night. Excitement over.

But then, really, the excitement is just beginning.

1. Big Brown- 1st
2. Gayego- 10th
3. Hey Byrn- 6th
4. Icabad Crane- 3rd

In other news

-My husband kept talking about this race they were showing on Today at Pimlico while I was busy baking. It was an impressive showing in the Peter Pan Stakes by a horse named Casino Drive, who I think you've heard me mention before. Currently, he's being touted as perhaps the last, best hope for knocking some sense into Big Brown. I'm not holding my breath. His jockey was quoted as saying that you often see a horse ship from overseas like that (Casino Drive had just come from Japan the week before his race) and then not do quite as well after they've had a rest. Mind you, his jockey may be biased, as he's got a different horse he'll be riding in the Belmont (cough, Big Brown).

-Okay, so one of my friends recently emailed me saying she heard that Big Brown was doped up during the Derby and was supposed to have been disqualified and now she's all mad because she doesn't think that it's fair he wasn't. To all of you out there in internets land- Big Brown tested clean for all illegal substances after the race. Yes there was some questions because his trainer is scum. We admit that, but that has no effect on how great his horse may be. No, there was nothing untoward. No, Eight Belles hadn't been given anything either. No, it is not the fault of her jockey/trainer/owner that she broke down. It was an awful accident.

Preakness Preview

2008-05-16T09:48:00.016-04:00

I haven't posted here in almost two weeks. I've all but stopped reading other people's racing blogs and my morning BloodHorse update. I haven't even managed to crack the Kentucky Derby re-cap edition of my BloodHorse subscription. It's sitting on my counter at home, gathering dust. Clearly, the Kentucky Derby has left me depressed this year.

And no, it's not just Eight Belles's loss. And it's not the having to explain to my co-workers and friends and random people who find out I'm a horse racing fan that- yes, it is horrible when a horse goes down like that, but accidents happen, and no there's really nothing you can do about it sometimes. And its not finding myself in the position of having to defend my favorite sport and training techniques and suspect racing surfaces and jockeys and less-than-squeaky-clean trainers and greedy owners. No, I've been through that before. I knew it was coming the instant I saw that grey form lying prone on the Churchill dirt.

I think it's more that I hate Big Brown.

I do, I admit it. I always feel a little resentment towards the winner of the Derby (which is invariably not the horse I would have chosen to win), but this year it's been worse than normal. I've had years where I didn't think the Derby winner would go on to win the Preakness, let along the remainder of the Triple Crown. Giacomo would be a good example. But never once have I not wanted the Derby winner to go on to wear the Black-Eyed Susans. So strong is my desire for another Triple Crown winner.

But I seriously want Big Brown to lose.

And it's not his fault. Not the horse at all. He's a cutie! He's got that weird white spot behind his left elbow. And he's done so much in what little time he's been on the track. He overcame what I personally saw as near insurmountable odds (the inexperience, the post position, etc.) to win with style. He went four wide that whole way around the Churchill track, and still finished like a champion. He proved that he was head and shoulders above the other horses in the race that day. And now he's going to Maryland to meet lesser (though fresher) competition.

It's hard to make a case for why he shouldn't win.

And my dear husband has promised, if he does sweep the Preakness, to take me to New York for my birthday present, to see a potential Triple Crown winner run. If only I could get excited.

I guess it's that there's nothing I hate more than arrogance. Nothing I hate more than the self-aggrandizing attitude his connections were exuding before the Derby. Nothing I hate more than people who invite the gods to strike them down for their presumption. And it kills me when people like that win. When it turns out that all their self-proclaimed superiority turns out to be correct. When they do things like deciding to retire their stud at 3, even before he's run his 5th race ever. When they can say, "Not only am I the greatest thing since sliced bread, but also, I told you so!"

But horses don't do that. They just love running. And this is something I just need to get over. And get over fast, because the Preakness is tomorrow. I'll be watching it on the little cabinet mounted TV in my parents kitchen as I roll endless rumaki and stuff countless mushrooms in preparation for my mother's 60th Birthday/Retirement party later that evening. Definitely not how I'd choose to watch the race for the Woodlawn Vase, but what can you do. Mom's only turn 60 once. So, without further ado, here is your Preakness pre-race analysis:

Preakness Stakes

When I started this analysis, Behindatthebar was one of my favorites for the race. However, it now appears he's been scratched because of a bruised foot. Alas, nothing can go right in this Triple Crown season. Thank goodness the Red Wings are still in the playoffs!

So, I've heard there's a horse named Big Brown in this race. Unfortunately, he makes the rest of the players look like amateurs. Undefeated in four lifetime starts, Beyer's consistently over 100, Kentucky Derby champion, blah-blah-blah. Let's just assume he's going in just about everybody's top spots and look at this as a race for second place.

Gayego (Gilded Time-Devil's Lake, by Lost Code) never had a chance in the Derby. He was one of the few horses in the race whose actual performance exactly matched what I had imagined in my pre-race mental constructions. Breaking from post 19, he was cut off by the rocket on his right and got lost in the shuffle of the 18 other horses on his left. He never got a chance to find his stride. But this time, he's on the outside of Big Brown. I think he perfectly represents the good horse with the horrible Derby trip, a not uncommon experience. And if anyone can bounce back from a bad prior performance and take Big Brown while he's busy planning his post-Preakness celebration, I think he's it. It's telling that his connections decided to keep him on the Triple Crown trail to threaten Big Brown when every other Derby starter flinched away to lick their wounds in the corner.

Another top contender, in my mind, is Giant Moon (Giant's Causeway-Moonlightandbeauty, by Capote). I loved this horse way back at the beginning of the season. He put in an awful performance in the mudddy Gotham (g.III), and though he managed to get up for 4th in the Wood Memorial (g.I), it was nothing spectacular. I can't say I really think he would have advanced much (or at all) on the top three Wood horses if given an extra 1/16th of a mile to run at them (which the Preakness would provide), but it did prove to me that his awful Gotham performance was not in the norm. I still like him, and he posted a bullet 4 furlongs in 47 and change on Tuesday to back me up.

I used to like Yankee Bravo (Yankee Gentlemen-Vicky Jane, by Royal Academy) too, but unlike Giant Moon, his recent disappointing performances have been...just that. Disappointing. No excuses. No signs of improvement. He's always there driving at the end, but without any apparent desire to make it there first. Of course, now that I've made this entirely arbitrary (and somewhat character based) assessment of him, he's probably going to do really well.

Tres Borrachos (Ecton Park-Pete's Fancy, by Peteski) made a good racde of it when he finished third behind Gayego and one of my Kentucky Derby favorites, Z Fortune, in the Arkansas Derby. But he likes to be near the pace, and if he does that in here that means he'll be butting heads with Mr. Brown (Mr. B? Big B? Double B? BB Gun? Seriously, Big Brown needs a good nickname). I think he'll lose that pissing contest.

My mom laughed at Icabad Crane (Jump Start-Adorahy, by Rahy) when he won the Frederico Tesio Stakes in an impressive stretch duel. She liked his name. She was an English teacher before she was an administrator and she used to teach American myths and legends to her high school students. I think it would be amusing for Mr. Crane to make an appearance for her retirement party. That and he's won over the Pimlico surface before. I think he pulled a good post position for his kind of running, and I think he was unlucky finishing 3rd in the Rushaway.

Kentucky Bear and Stevil both did pretty well in the infamous Bluegrass (g.I), finishing third and fourth respectively. But the winners of the Bluegrass turned out to be not all that come Derby Day (as I had predcited), so this doesn't mean too much. Mind you, the losers of the Bluegrass didn't turn out to be all that either (which I did not predict), and so I guess I can't really say anything about these two one way or the other. Macho Again is too inconsistent for me to back solidly. Racecar Rhapsody is...actually, I don't know why Racecar Rhapsody is in this race. Same with Riley Tucker.

Finally, Hey Burn (Put It Back- Restraining Order, by Skip Trial). He's been crushed by Big Brown before, but then who hasn't at this point? Before that he was a rapidly improving, rising star of the horse racing world. He came back from his Florida Derby (g.I) to do very well in the Holy Bull Stakes (g.III), admittedly against moderate company.

1. Big Brown (sigh)
2. Gayego
3. Hey Burn
4. Icabad Crane

Oh, and can I mention again how much I hate that they re-named the Sir Barton Stakes after Barbaro? Last year's inaugural winner (well, inaugural in that it was the first time the race had ever been run under its new name) was Chelokee, who was trained by Barbaro's former trainer, Michael Matz. Chelokee broke down in the stretch of the Alysheba Stakes on Oaks Day and is still touch and go. Do you see a pattern here? I think Barbaro, and all things associated with him, must be cursed. Do you know its bad luck to re-christen a ship? I think it may be the same thing with horse races.

What can you say?

2008-05-04T09:36:00.004-04:00

You can say that Big Brown is a true champion. That he overcame his inexperience, a deathly post position and the perils of overhype to win the day and immortality.

You can say that he deserved every once of press he received prior to the race, and he will deserve every iota thrown his way in the aftermath.

You can say that you hope to see him again in two weeks and, though you're not quite sure how things will fall out there, it would be nice to see him win again.

You can say you're sorry that a great filly had to die. That the absolute worst aspect of your sport...the part that makes even the die hard fans turn away with tears in their eyes...the part that makes the greatest critics of the sport justified in their anger...had to mar what otherwise would have been such a fine example of what makes racing great.

Alas, there's not really anything you can say after a race like that. Nothing that matter anyways. That there will be fallout of many kinds following this race is for certain. And it is one we will all remember. Not just for the way it was won, but also, for how it was lost.

D-Day

2008-05-03T10:23:00.006-04:00

For years before I could legally drink, I threw a yearly Derby party. Once I could legally drink (okay, maybe a little before then) I started making mint juleps to fortify my friends through a long day of racing coverage. I learned very quickly that mint juleps suck. No seriously, I firmly believe that no one in their right mind would ever actually drink these horrors on purpose, were it not traditional. Long ago, they were a Southern "medicine", sipped on long back porches by invalids. Everyone knew back then that the worse medicine tasted, the more effective it was. And so why anyone would, in modern times, drink such a concoction for pleasure, continually eludes me. However, after years of trial and error, I finally managed to develop a mint julep recipe which, if not good, is at least palatable.

The key, apparently is good bourbon. During my years living in the student ghetto, I could not comprehend spending $30-$40 dollars on any form of alcohol, and that seems to have been the root of my problem. I now buy Woodford Reserve ($35), which is the official bourbon of both the Kentucky Derby and Playboy, so you know it has to be good. Now, without further ado, here it is:

Becky's Not Too Horrible Mint Julep Recipe

8 cups water
4 cups sugar
2 teaspoons mint extract
Bourbon (Woodford Reserve, or similar good quality)
Crushed Ice
Fresh Mint

Combine water and sugar in a large saucepan. Bring to a boil, stirring occasionally. When water is fully boiled, remove saucepan from heat and allow to cool. Add mint extract. Chill mixture for at least 2-3 hours (I prefer overnight). To make drink fill official 1973 Kentucky Derby mint julep glass with ice. Add 1 part bourbon to 2-3 parts mint syrup. Garnish with fresh mint.

In other news

- On my way home from work yesterday I called my parents, had them put the Kentucky Oaks on their TV, turn up the volume, and hold the phone close up so I could hear the race live. All the way around the track I was hearing my two favorites...Bsharpsonata and Proud Spell...neck and neck for the lead. Until the final furlong, when suddenly I didn't hear my girl Bsharpsonata's name being called anymore. At the wire, it was Proud Spell, followed by Little Belle and Pure Clan. Bsharpsonata was fifth. My co-worker, and man on the ground in Louisville, who had been calling and texting me all day for choices, was displeased. Luckily, I'd also told him to bet on Little Belle (who had also won on mud before). His wife had put her to show, so they won some money. Oh well, good job Proud Spell! Let's see if your stablemate can make it happen with the big boys today.

- On a much more somber note, yesterday Chelokee broke down in the stretch of the Alysheba. His rider, Ramon Dominguez, walked it off. Chelokee was thought to have broke his right front cannon bone and was vanned to Rood and Riddle equine hospital. It must have been like a nightmare replaying itself for trainer Michael Matz, who saw a very similar thing happen to his champion Barbaro two years ago in the Preakness. Chelokee, strangely enough, was also the inaugural winner of the Barbaro Stakes last year. Luckily, it turns out that Chelokee only dislocated his ankle, so it looks as though the tough colt will be all right.

- Hall of Fame trainer Frank Whitely Jr. died yesterday. Famous for training such greats as the ill-fated filly Ruffian, near Triple Crown winner Damascus, and three time Horse of the Year Forego, he will be missed.

Final Analysis

2008-05-01T13:32:00.073-04:00

All right, this is what it has all been about. All the obsessing. All the composing of witty blog posts while laying awake in bed. The dog earred Blood Horse copies. The scribbled upon past performance sheets. The sitting in the shower trying to determine whether or not Visionaire has the guts to really close that final furlong. The pedigree research. The near constant reading of other people's (much better) blogs.

Tomorrow is the Derby, and here is your pre-race analysis.

#1- Cool Coal Man (20-1)

This bay colt out of the first crop by former Horse of the Year, Mineshaft, is looking to be that's sire's first Triple Crown race winner. He's raced three times in 2008; the first was an easy allowance score, but he soon followed that up with a win in the Fountain of Youth (g.II), where he just held on to beat out one of my prior favorites Elysium Fields and co-Derby starter Court Vision. He finished 9th in the crazy Bluegrass, but even if we throw that debacle out, I still have some questions about his ability to run a mile and a quarter. Coming from Mineshaft, you'd think he would be able to handle it, but then he sure looked strained after the Fountain of Youth.

#2- Tale of Ekati (15-1)
This Tale of the Cat colt (out of the Sunday Silence mare, Silence Beauty) was a top colt in his 2 year old season, but has failed to really equal his juvenile form since then. He failed to fire in his first start as a three year old in the Louisiana Derby (g.II). His win in the Wood guaranteed him a spot in the Derby, but it's a questionable win at best. Despite having the pace set up for him perfectly, Tale of Ekati closed in a sauntering14 second final eighth of a mile, and only managed to beat the still game War Pass by half a length, despite the fact that War Pass had injured himself near the top of the stretch.

#3- Anak Nakal (30-1)

Anak Nakal, Indonesian for 'Devious Child', was a monster at two, but has failed to return to that form this year. He has never fared better than 5th place in his three 2008 starts, despite racing at 3 different tracks in an attempt to find a surface/atmosphere/competition mix that he could handle. That being said, there's no question this son of the former Belmont winner Victory Gallop, out of a Quiet American mare, will be able to go the distance. And he did put in a monster work last week over the Churchill surface, running four furlongs in 46 and 3/5.

#4- Court Vision (20-1)

Court Vision is by Gulch, who has previously shown his ability to get a Derby winner out of a Storm Bird mare with his son Thunder Gulch. Court Vision's dam is also by Storm Bird, and if that weren't enough to make you love his pedigree, his granddam is the consummate broodmare Weekend Surprise, a daughter herself of Secretariat and dam of leading sire A.P. Indy. Can you tell I love this horse's breeding?

Though Court Vision has danced every dance this season, coming in third in both the Wood Memorial (g.I) and the Fountain of Youth (g.II), he's yet to cement himself into my heart with a win. He had every excuse in the world after the Fountain of Youth, going 7 wide on the turn and being kept much farther back at the start than he's used to. However, the Wood was set up perfectly for him, with War Pass bobbing heads with the rabbit specifically put in by Court Vision's trainer to push the pace, and he still couldn't threaten the first two horses at the finish (one of which was both exhausted and injured). Although I really (really) like Court Vision, and he has been training extremely well over the Churchill surface, his performance in the Wood has become my deciding factor against him. Now watch him go and win it all and make me hate myself forever.

Photo: EquinePhotoArt.com

#5- Eight Belles (20-1)

Who doesn't love a filly in the Derby? Especially a physically imposing grey filly on the 20th anniversary of Winning Colors' triumph. A number of people have pointed out that she lacks something that all three fillies to ever have won the run for the roses share, that being a previous race against colts. However, Rags to Riches had never raced the boys before the Belmont Stakes last year, and look what happened with her. Others question her ability to go the full mile and a quarter, given that she has never previously raced farther than a mile and one sixteenth. But she's from Unbridled's line, and I can't help thinking, from the way she runs, that she'll just improve with distance. Eight Belles has posted Beyers equalling the best of the boys' this year. She's dominated the girl's division. Putting her in the Oaks would be nothing more than a foregone conclusion. And maybe (maybe) she'll make history.

#6- Z Fortune (15-1)

Z Fortune just can't get any respect. He was undefeated in three starts going into the Risen Star (g.III) this spring, where he ran into a late closing wonder named Pyro. Trying to make a comback (and running to Oaklawn park to escape his nemesis), he finished a tired 5th in the Rebel Stakes (g.II). Making a last ditch effort, he chased Gayego in the Arkasas Derby (g.II), and after going waaaaay wide on both turns, still almost caught the flying west coast phenom. This spring has been a season of learning for him and, I will go out on a limb and say, a season for overall improvement. He's shown me exactly what I want to see in a blooming three year old. This year has been a litany of bad trips and excuses. Either he'll grow up and be a man on Saturday, or he'll slip into obscurity.

#7- Big Truck (50-1)

Although not what one might call regally bred, or for that matter, bred in any way to go the classic distances, Big Truck proved his mettle earlier this year when he burst on the scene with a win in the Tampa Bay Derby (g.III), edging out Atoned and leaving a distressed War Pass in his wake. If one throws out his dismal performance in finishing 11th in the Bluegrass Stakes in his first time over synthetic track, he looks like nothing more than a steadily improving colt sitting on a monster race. And in the picture at left, he looks exactly like what I like to see in a racehorse: leggy, athletic, alert.

#8- Visionaire (20-1)

Another horse not bred along traditional staying lines, Visionaire has been having something of a Cinderella season (the part before the slipper, anyways). He kicked in late in the Risen Star (g.III), a little too late to catch the flying Pyro and the hard knocking Z Fortune. He came back to shock sense into the New York horses, diving like a mud splattered hawk out of the cloudy Gotham (g.III) field to nip Texas Wildcatter at the wire. He, like so many others, failed to show up in the Bluegrass (g.I), but of all the quality horses embarrassed that day, he finished the best. Although very wide on the final turn, he still managed to finish 5th, and was gaining on the leaders at the end. I seriously considered betting him across the board, but my husband doesn't like him at all...and I do respect Mr. Blacktype's opinion.

#9- Pyro (6-1)

The kiss of death for Pyro will not be his failure to get a placing (or even a good workout) from the Bluegrass Stakes (g.I). It won't be the fast pace put up by a Big Brown/Bob Black Jack combo. It won't be the track, whatever the state of the (real) dirt. No, it will be my undying affection for him.

Pyro had what was, in my opinion (and in several others' opinions as well, including that of Randy Moss) the most impressive prep race this whole spring. Yes, even more impressive than Big Brown's cruise to a 5 length win in the Florida Derby. Don't believe me? Just take a gander at the Risen Star (g.III) for yourself. Perhaps, in this 20th anniversary of Risen Star's near Triple Crown triumph, a winner of a race named in that classic colt's honor will take the roses on his behalf.

His breeding for this distance cannot really be faulted, though he may be a tad short on the underside. His Beyers may not be very impressive, but then he has never had to run any faster to beat out his opponents in the final eighth of a mile. He's split horses, he's slipped behind horses and run them down from the outside, he's raced well in mud, he's faced big fields and screaming fans, and he is tried and tested against the best of his generation. The only thing he's done wrong is run abysmally once on a synthetic track that wasn't in any way set up for his style of running.

Randy Moss asked recently which Pyro would show up on Derby Day: the victor of the Risen Star or the also ran of the Bluegrass? The truth is there is only one Pyro, the only question is whether even that will be enough to grab the roses.

#10- Colonel John (4-1)

If Pyro has done only one thing wrong this year, Colonel John has yet to make a single mistake. He won the Sham Stakes (g.III) in a stretch duel against the tough El Gato Malo. He followed that up with a win in the Santa Anita Derby (g.I) over the tenacious speedster Bob Black Jack which, to me at least, looked almost effortless. He's been getting steadily stronger all along. He's bred to go the distance, being by California's favorite son and two time Breeder's Cup Classic winner Tiznow, and he's bred to run on dirt. The fact that he's never given the real stuff a try is, to me, just a formailty. His work of 4 furlongs in 47 and change last week tells me he feels the same way. In his life, he's never been worse than second. You can say you don't think he'll win, but there's no way you can count this horse out of the money.

#11- Z Humor (30-1)

Z Humor, I have to admit, heads my list of horses that really shouldn't be in the Derby. His best race this year is a 3rd place in a questionable Illinois Derby (g.II), over a questionable speed favoring track, against questionable company. His sire, Distorted Humor, has recently been putting himself forward as the sire of the next century and his damsire, A.P. Indy, cannot be faulted as a classic producer. But other than his pedigree and a couple nice races at two (including a Breeder's Cup Juvenile performance where he cruised home in the slop to a 5th place almost 20 lengths behind the winner), what's there to say about him? How about 'What have you done for me lately?'

#12- Smooth Air (20-1)

One week ago today, Smooth Air's connections were terrified their feverish colt wouldn't make it into the Derby field. Now, one week, some antibiotics and a couple of easy works later, he's chomping at the bit. Although not bred to go the traditional distance, he's not slacked off in his two mile and 1/8 starts this year; finishing a solid thid in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, and a not to be ignored second behind Big Brown in the Florida Derby (g.I). Not to be overlooked is the fact that he's two for two over sloppy tracks (though both were, notably, sprint races); and the heavens look to open up on Derby Day.

#13- Bob Black Jack (20-1)

Bob Black Jack is a speed demon. Current holder of the world record mark for 6.5 furlongs, he will blow you by if he gets a track fast enough. The question is, what kind of track will he have on Saturday? Like so many starters this year, he's never felt real dirt beneath his feet. He's certainly never felt the cuppy, energy slagging pull of mud. And can he carry that blazing speed for the full mile and a quarter? I'll tell you, looking at his breeding and figures, I was shocked to see him hold on for third in the mile and 1/16 San Felipe Stakes (g.II). I was still more surprised to see him dig in gamely during the stretch of the mile and 1/8 Santa Anita Derby (g.I), to finish second behind Colonel John. If he makes it all the way around the Churchill Downs oval I'll be surprised once again, but you cannot deny this horse has grit. And that, plus speed, is what the Derby is all about.

#14- Monba (15-1)

Monba had a horrible trip in the Fountain of Youth (g.II). He was squeezed, battered, stepped on, and came home bleeding. If that's not an excuse for his 12th place finish, I don't know what is. He then followed this performance up with a stylish win in the Bluegrass Stakes (g.I). But that was over polytrack, and may just be his grass roots showing.

Monba's sire Maria's Mon is, usually, known as a grass sire (though he proved his ability to get a Derby horse when Monarchos took the 2001 Derby in the fastest running time since 1973). Additionally, Monba's got Derby performer and Belmont Stakes winner Easy Goer as his damsire. So there's no genetic reason he couldn't run well on dirt. But on Bluegrass day when all the classy traditional dirt horses failed, Monba and his stablemate (and consummate grass performer) Cowboy Cal carried the day. I'm sorry, that's a bit too much of a coincidence for me. Toss that race out, there's not much left to say about Monba.

#15- Adriano (30-1)

Adriano's trainer was quoted this week as saying "I must be the only trainer in America with an A.P.Indy that can't run on dirt." It's a good point. Everyone has been saying that Adriano is a grass horse through in through. They cite his high front action, and the fact that he's only ever won on grass and synthetic track. But he certainly was driving in the fake dirt during his Lane's End Stakes (g.I) win. And really, there could have been many factors (like his far outside post-position) responsible for his 9th place finish in his sole dirt attempt.

Or it could just be that he's a grass horse.

#16- Denis of Cork (20-1)

Denis of Cork posted an easy win in his first stakes performance ever earlier this year in the Southwest Stakes (g.III), and he looked to follow that up with equally impressive wins in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby. But then his trainers decided not to put him in those races. They cited the fact that he's not the toughest of horses, and needed a bit of a break. So they found a little race several weeks farther on, which looked to have a field of only moderate quality (and thereby saved their horse from having to face the monsters that were War Pass and Pyro). The Illinois Derby (g.II) should have been a soft touch for Denis of Cork. It was not. He finished 5th in a performance that, if I were a track handicapper, I would label 'floundering'. On the Derby bubble for the longest time, he just sneaked into the gate because of Behindatthebar's late dropout.

#17- Cowboy Cal (20-1)

Cowboy Cal is a turf horse. There's no question here like there is for Adriano. His best performances have all been on turf. He got into the Derby based on his gutsy second place finish to Monba in the Bluegrass (g.I), run over synthetic track. His sire, Giant's Causeway, did his best running on grass, and has sired a significant amount of grass stakes winners. Add to all of this that he needs to be near the front, he grabbed the 17th post position, and that even then he still has 3 speedy horses to the right of him, and I think Todd Pletcher is looking at another bottom finisher this year.

#18- Recapturetheglory (20-1)

Two months ago, in his penultimate race, Recapturetheglory could barely manage a weakening and tired third in allowance company over the turf. One race later, and he's on top of the world, having triumphed in the Illinois Derby (g.II) over the likes of fellow Derby entrants Denis of Cork and Z Humor. He'll have to outrun more than those two pretenders, though, to win the Derby. He also has a solid sprinting pedigree to contend with, not to mention the other speed horses in the auxillary gate. You never know, this may be the year his flamboyant owners recapture the glory they had 20 years ago with Risen Star. If so, be ready for a winner's circle seranade. If not, it's back to the drawing board.

#19- Gayego (15-1)

Gayego was the only West Coast originator to head East to try both the real dirt and the eastern competition prior to the Derby, and he did not disappoint. After finishing a strong second to Georgie Boy in the San Felipe Stakes (g.II), Gayego headed to Arkansas, where he showed that neither the dirt nor the competition in the east would give him any pause. His win in the Arkansas Derby, over a late closing drive by Z Fortune, was impressive. However, one might imagine the number two horse that day catching up to him, if given an extra furlong to work on the leader. And, with post 19 and a definite need to be at or near the lead, Gayego may not make quite as good an impression on the east coast socialites as he may desire.

#20- Big Brown (3-1)

Never has so much been said about a horse that has done so little. Although I hate to agree with Hank 'The Hammer' Goldberg on just about anything, I like his moniker of 'Little Beige' for this thoroughly overhyped colt.

Yes, he ran a darn impressive Florida Derby (g.I). His win seemed pitifully easy, and you cannot deny his Beyer's are the best in the field. Yes, he's won his races by a combined margin of 29 lengths. But really, what have those wins been over

In the Florida Derby he beat Smooth Air. Prior to that, he beat allowance horses, turf horses, who had all been switched to a dirt track because their chosen surface was flooded. Prior to that he broke his maiden...that was in September of 2007, by the way. His pedigree screams sprinting, his feet are questionable. His stellar performance breaking from the 12 post of the Florida Derby does not equate (in any way shape or form) to him being able to win the Derby from the 20 spot. The handicapper's comment after his third lifetime race says it all 'Drew away; greenly'. And his trainer, though understably awed by the horse which has given him his first real chance at the Derby, needs to keep his big trap shut.

If Big Brown wins tomorrow, I will say the nicest things about him that anyone can say about a horse. If not, I'll be smugly silent. Serves him right

1. Pyro
2. Colonel John
3. Z Fortune
4. Bob Black Jack

So eat your burgoo. Drink your mint julep. Let your eyes tear up to the strains of My Old Kentucky Home. This is what it's all about folks, the most eciting 2 minutes in sports.

Etiam delenda est Carthago.

Almost like Christmas

2008-05-01T12:51:00.003-04:00

Seriously finding it hard to concentrate what with all the Derby buzz going around.

-Smooth Air finally worked today, and seems to have come out of his slight sickness last week A-Ok. Although he didn't exactly set the track on fire, one wouldn't really want him to really push himself this close to the race. I think he's got a good chance, especially if the precipitation level is high on Derby day.

- Big Brown, whose trainer is quite possibly the most arrogant person I've ever come across, rebounded from said trainer's surprising choice of post 20 (otherwise known as the Post of Death) for his horse this morning with a true pre-race blowout. The colt went 3 furlongs in a smooth 35 and 2/5th's. Remember what I said above about not wanting horses to tire themselves out just before the big race, well, even Big Brown's trainer has to admit that this was a little faster than he wanted his boy to run. So, let's do a pro/con comparison for Big Brown

Pro-

Unbeaten
Huge margins of victory in his wins
Ran a 110 Beyer in the Florida Derby

Wow...not too shabby. That, you would think, would be a horse worth another look. Now the Con's.

Con-

Only raced 3 times in his life (handicapper's comment from his last race, "greenly")
Beat Smooth Air in the Florida Derby, and that's about it
Pedigree says sprinting all the way
Chronic hoof issues
Inbred 3x3 to Northern Dancer, 3x4 to Damascus
Starting from post of death
Had a perhaps too fast blowout 2 days before the Derby
Morning line odds of 3-1
Nemisis fluttering about his head with a nasty gleam in her eye (trainer apparently has no concept of hubris)

In fencing terms, it looks to me like Big Brown is running on negative 6 indicators. Go ahead and bet him...if you're crazy.

Betting the Derby/Oaks

2008-05-01T11:18:00.004-04:00

I have never bet the Derby. Or the Oaks for that matter. I've never gone, I don't support off-track betting establishments, and I've never been so lucky as to be at an actual race-track on the First Saturday in May. Putting $1 into an office and/or Derby party pool does not count. But this year....this year I have a friend going to the Derby. In repayment for my equine advice to him, and my explaining of how to read a past performance chart, he is willing to put some bets down for me while he's there. As such, for the first time in my life, I've had to think beyond who I think (want) to win and concentrate on what might actually make a profitable bet. He's leaving this afternoon for the rolling green hills of Kentucky, so I've had to set down my bets right quick. Here's what I've decided to spend a whole whopping $20 (it's all I would allow myself) on:

Kentucky Oaks-

$2 on Bsharpsonata to win
$2 exacta box of Bsharpsonata and Proud Spell

Kentucky Derby-

$2 on Pyro to win
$1 trifecta box of Pyro, Colonel John and Z Fortune
$2 on Smooth Air across the board

And yes n00bs, that actually does come to $20. Betting is weird like that.

I've instructed my friend to not cash the $2 win ticket in the incredibly unlikely event that Pyro actually wins the Derby. That ticket would be more precious to me than gold, and certainly worth more to me sentimentally than whatever payout Pyro would have.

Make it so

2008-05-01T09:31:00.002-04:00

And here you have it! The final entrants and morning line odds for the 2008 Kentucky Derby (by post position).

1. Cool Coal Man 20-1

2. Tale of Ekati 15-1

3. Anak Nakal 30-1

4. Court Vision 20-1

5. Eight Belles 15-1 20-1

6. Z Fortune 15-1

7. Big Truck 50-1

8. Visionaire 20-1

9. Pyro 6-1

10. Colonel John 4-1

11. Z Humor 30-1

12. Smooth Air 20-1

13. Bob Black Jack 20-1

14. Monba 15-1

15. Adriano 30-1

16. Denis of Cork 20-1

17. Cowboy Cal 20-1

18. Recapturetheglory 20-1

19. Gayego 15-1

20. Big Brown 3-1

Gentlemen, start your betting.

Doing the Derby

2008-04-30T09:58:00.011-04:00

By now, we're all familiar with the horses. We're scrutinizing their last works with squinting, suspicious eyes. We're holding our breaths for the post position draw. And we're planning our bets, which oftentimes have little or nothing to do with how we actually think (or hope) the race will turn out. Now it's time to examine some questions which have come up in my analysis recently and may, or may not, have any actual effect on the race.

1. What happened in the Bluegrass?

This has got to have been the defining race of the entire prep season. No fewer than 6 Derby entrants were featured in it, and never has so poor an effort been expended by so many good horses. How much credit do you give to the synthetic surfaces? We already know that some horses raised on fake dirt show problems adjusting to the real thing (and what a world have we humans created where our thoroughbreds no longer know how to run on dirt?), but can we really excuse so many dirt performers who spinned their wheels their first time out on the plastic? Big Truck, Cool Coal Man, Pyro, and Visionaire all put in surprisingly bad performances in their first steps on a synthetic track. Meanwhile turf specialist Cowboy Cal and sometime synthetic winner Monba all but collectively wired the field.

If just one good horse put in a bad performance, you could question whether or not to throw out the race with the claim that the change in track affected him. But here we're dealing with a mass defection of the dirt running ranks. Combine that with the apparent brilliance of the two questionable dirt performers. What we're dealing with here does not appear to be just one or two horses not taking to the track, but rather a general change in the quality of the track as a whole. A change dramatically away from that of the Derby.

In other words, I think you have to throw out the Bluegrass. No, not just for Pyro, and not just because my natural affection for that horse makes me want to throw it out. Throw it out for everyone. I might (might) give Monba credit for his performance in it, because we've been seeing a lot of synthetic running horses transfer well to the dirt this year, but everyone else gets it wiped from their slate. The Bluegrass, essentially, has been Black-carded.

So what does that mean? It means Pyro still looks very good. It means Visionaire's Gotham still looks strong. It means Cool Coal Man is still a classy Mineshaft colt running comfortably under the radar. It means Cowboy Cal is still a grass horse. Monba...well...he gets props for having a darn excellent work over the Keenland surface.

2. What factor is the 2007 Breeder's Cup Juvenile?

Generally, I try to ignore a horse's 2-year old career when I'm handicapping the Derby (what happens at two, stays at two). However, it occurred to me yesterday, as I was pouring over past performance sheets, that only three hardy 2007 BCJ veterans have made it to the Derby gates this year. Only three of the 11 horses who, last year, were thought to be the cream of their crop. Pyro, Tale of Ekati, and Z Humor. Why is this important? Two reasons.

First, the BCJ is a high energy, high stress race, full of classy competition. Very rarely in a horse's life will he be thrust into a gate jammed full of the very best horses of his generation, especially in connection with a media frenzy. If the horse lasts past his 2 year old career, the next time he's likely to see anything similar is when heading towards the Derby. So, you could say the BCJ is something of a crucible for testing young thoroughbreds for Derby savvy. Similar to having a junior in high school take college entrance exams once with the idea of putting them into prep classes over the summer and having them re-take the test later on. Doing that teaches a kid how to take a grueling test; similarly, the BCJ could serve as significant preparation for the insanity which is the first Saturday in May.

Secondly, because the last BCJ was contested in the slop.

3. What's the weather like?

Current prediction for Louisville this Saturday? Scattered thunderstorms, with the same forecast for Oaks day as well. So, who's got the mudder cred? Well, Pyro is the only one of the three remaining BCJ entries to have finished in the money in that race, placing a closing second to War Pass. Ten of the 20 entrants have never seen a puddle in their lives. Visionaire recently proved he relished wet going in his Gotham win. Smooth Air has won both times his feet have touched an off track.

You can't just assume that a horse that's never run in mud will perform poorly, just like you can't assume that horses who have never run on dirt or synthetics will automatically have problems when they switch tracks. However, by watching a horse's work schedule, and closely examining his races, sometimes you can get an idea when a horse doesn't like "change".

One horse in the Derby field who doesn't seem to be phased by change is Big Brown. Turf races, dirt races, races switched to dirt from a waterlogged turf course...he seems to have done it all. Colonel John, though he's never been off of rubber running surfaces has trained so magnificently over the Churchill Down's dirt track that I have a feeling that he'll stride just as stoically upon a wet surface. Bob Black Jack, meanwhile, I have the suspicion likes his tracks fast and fake; though I'd be hard pressed to put my finger on my exact reasoning.

4. Who's your daddy?

Much has been made about which horses traditionally have the breeding to run the mile and a quarter distance of the Derby. Basically, this comes down to a question of whether (1) their sires raced successfully at this classic distance, (2) whether their sires have produced horses that successfully ran the classic distances and (3) barring any help from the stallion's quarter, whether the damsire has any distance 'bottom' to offer his grandchildren (note for n00bs- in horses sire=dad, dam=mom, grandsire=dad's father, damsire=mom's father, granddam=mom's mother...the sire's mother doesn't really have a specific term...and no, I don't know why). So, who has a classic distance running pedigree in this field? Which, if the euphemism may be abused, can "go all the way"?

Colonel John's sire, Tiznow, is the only 2 time winner of the mile and a quarter Breeder's Cup Classic, and Colonel John's damsire is Turkoman, another producer of route running offspring; so he's got both sides of the pedigree covered. Monba's sire, Maria's Mon, is often looked at as a producer of grass horses like himself, but already has one representative Derby winning son in Monarchos. Anak Nakal is a son of Victory Gallop (who was second, second and first respectively in his Triple Crown races).

Adriano, as a son of A.P. Indy and a grandson of Seattle Slew, has got the pedigree on the top side, although his dam, being by Mr. Prospector, is a bit heavy on the sprinting side. Cool Coal Man is a son of Mineshaft (and thus also a grandson of A.P.Indy). Although Mineshaft is relatively new to the breeding business, he went the mile and a quarter with style during his own career. Pyro, a son of Pulpit and another A.P. Indy grandson, also appears to have distance covered by both ends of his pedigree.

Court Vision, although descending from traditional sprinting lines on both the top (Mr. Prospector) and bottom (his dam Weekend Storm coming ultimately from the Northern Dancer sireline), his sire was Gulch, who also sired previous Derby winner Thunder Gulch out of a similar Northern Dancer line mare. Tale of Ekati is by Tale of the Cat who, though a fairly recent sire, looks to produce quality sprinters in the line of his own sire Storm Cat, however, Tale of Ekati is backed up on the underside by his Japanese bred mother, Silent Beauty, and her sire and classic distance runner, Sunday Silence.

Who shouldn't, based upon a pure pedigree analysis, run up to snuff beyond 9 furlongs?

Big Brown's sire Boundary is known primarily for sprinters; as is Gayego's sire Gilded Time and Visionaire's sire Grand Slam. None of these three horses have what I would consider a "strong underbelly", meaning distance running support on their dam's side.

Another thing to consider breeding wise is the representation of certain sire lines in Derby winners, which was discussed at length by one of my fellow bloggers. Essentially, two lines which have underproduced in Derby winners, based upon their representation of descendants in the Derby, are Northern Dancer and Damascus. There's lots of Northern Dancer line horses in this years Derby (he's kind of hard to escape in North American racing), but only one horse so thoroughly combines both the "Northern Dancer bounce" and the "Damascus curse" that I would consider dropping him from my lineup based upon this one determining factor (if I didn't already hate his guts, that is). Big Brown in inbred 3x3 to Northern Dancer and 3x4 to Damscus; and that's more than enough to convince me.

In other news

-Post positions for the Oaks have been decided and odds are finalizing:

1. Golden Doc A 12-1
2. Absolutely Cindy 20-1
3. Awesome Chic 20-1
4. Elusive Lady 30-1
5. Rasierra 50-1
6. Country Star 4-1
7. Little Belle 8-1
8. Proud Spell 7-2
9. A To The Croft 20-1
10. Bsharpsonata 6-1
11. Pure Clan 6-1
12. Eight Belles 5-2 (To Be Scratched?)

Derby Update

2008-04-28T14:38:00.001-04:00

Behindatthebar is skipping the roses. That allows Denis of Cork a chance to avenge himself for his poor Illinois Derby performance.

D-day minus five

2008-04-28T09:55:00.004-04:00

The Derby crowd is finally shaping up, both figuratively (we now know that filly Proud Spell is out of the Derby, meaning that lucky Bob Black Jack is now in...Eight Belles is still a question mark) and literally, as the contenders work out over the Louisville track prior to the big day. With Colonel John (5f in 57.8), Big Brown (5f in 58.6), Eight Belles (5 f in 58.2), and Cool Coal Man (4f in 47.4) burning up the training track, it may be easy to ignore the comparatively ho hum performances this morning of my two Asmussen sweeties Pyro (4f in 49 and 4/5) and Z Fortune (4f in 51).

However, I refuse to be cast down by the more precocious morning efforts put out by some Derby hopefuls. I note that Pyro has never been what I'd call a sharp worker. Even his bullet works can hardly carry that title. In fact, just before his impressive Risen Star score, Pyro worked 5 furlongs in 1:00 and 4/5. Certainly nothing to sneeze at, but in no way eye catching. No, I think he's right on track; though Jerry Bailey, who, during the Lexington Stakes broadcast, said that he would be paying very close attention to Pyro's final works, cannot be too pleased with this non-showing combined with the obscurity of his second to last workout (there was so much fog that day that the Keenland clockers could not assign a time to the workout). I would be unsurprised to see this great colt fall in the esteem of that great former jockey by the time the post draw coverage rolls around.

I, too, am in preparations for the Derby. I have purchased my yearly bottle of Woodford Reserve. I am planning the appetizers with great care. My (very classy) emailed invites have gone out.

In other news

-Pepper's Pride made history this weekend; joining Citation, Cigar, Mister Frisky and Hallowed Dreams as the only throughbreds to win 16 races in a row. She looks to break that mark later this summer.

-Harlem Rocker triumphed over the highly regarded (and recent Derby field dropouts) J Be K and Face the Cat. Which, if nothing else, should make one person very happy.

Breakfast of Champions

2008-04-25T08:51:00.012-04:00

I'd like to see a show of hands from those who have been playing The BloodHorse's March Into May game (a sort of March Madness type bracket where horse racing greats are pitted against one another in a public opinion poll of ultimate greatness) who did not think from the outset that the final round would come down to a match race between classic American hero Man o' War and ESPN's 35th greatest athlete of the 20th century, Secretariat. As for me, clicking upon the link to the final round this morning, I was not at all surprised. Notably, I could have also predicted that Seattle Slew and Citation would arrange themselves comfortably into the 3rd and 4th positions; and Spectacular Bid was the only choice to surprise me from the round of 8. Ah, if only real March Madness brackets were this easy to predict, I'd be rich.

It's pretty much undisputed among horse racing fans (at least, those in America) that Big Red was the greatest horse of all time, but the question which does often get bandied about is "Which one?" As I stated, ESPN chimed in with their selection, naming only one racehorse to their top 50 athletes and devoting a hour long documentary to Secretariat, despite cries by sports fans that it was a travesty to choose a horse over a human. The Blood Horse staff had their say in Thoroughbred Champions, choosing the great Man o' War instead.

Both colts were clearly the best of their generation. Both won sprint races and routes, on dirt and grass, against older competition, breaking long standing records and making it all look easy. Both were Horse of the year; neither raced at 4 or beyond. Both were regally bred. They were similar in size; both huge- Man o' War reached 16'2 hands and topped the scales at 1125 pouds, while Secretariat was 16'2 hands and 1200 pounds (remind me to explain about 'hands' someday to the n00bs, let's just say for now that both horses were approximately 5 feet 6 inches at the top of their shoulders). Both passed on their greatness into quality stakes winning offspring. And, though probably the least important comparison, the most often remarked upon: they were both striking chestnuts, glowing like firebrands in their respective eras.

So who do I pick? Well, growing up I was a huge Man o' War fan. It's impossible to ignore a horse with a record of 20-1-0 in 21 starts, a horse that once won a race by a hundred lengths, a horse that, though he didn't win the Triple Crown, almost certainly would have if his owner had actually entered him in the Kentucky Derby.

For here was a horse among horses,
Cast in a Titan's mold
And the slant October sunlight
Gilded the living gold*

And Secretariat? He finished with a record of 16-3-1 in 21 starts. He won the Triple Crown, and set the record time for each of its races (though the Preakness time is debateable). His performance in the Belmont stakes, setting the world record for a mile and a half and leaving his opponets 31 lengths in his dust, still stands at the apogee of many sportmen's greatest moments. If he wasn't "th' mostess horse", then certainly he was his reincarnation.

He's a chestnut colt, and he's got a star-
He may be another Man o' War.

The kicker for me is the fact that the two grew up in vastly different times. When Man o' War was foaled in 1917, there were less than 2,000 throroughbred's registered; a testament to the fact that even the racing elite had something else to think about during World War I. In 1970, when Secretariat was foaled, there were more than 10 times that many foals. That makes for significantly greater competition. Additionally, and probably the final determiner, is the question of medication. And by that, I don't mean the generally benign medication associated with Lasix or Bute. Man o' War was raised in a time when drug testing was an impossibility, and was reputed to be one of the largest heroin abusers at the track. Baseball fans shake their heads at comparisons between the steroid pumped sport-stars of today and the baseball greats of yester-year; with horse racing we have the exact opposite problem.

I choose Secretariat. Feel free to argue with me.

* Taken from "Big Red" a poem originally printed in The Blood Horse in 1937, and which I dutifully memorized as a young girl.

Nay, say it aloud--be shameless.
Dream and hope and yearn,
For there's never a man among you
But waits for his return.

Still waiting...

In other news

- Holy cow, did you see Big Brown? Probably not; he was moving that fast. For those too lazy to click the link, he went 5 furlongs in 58.60. Read below for a more in depth understanding of that sort of speed. I might have to reassess my opinion of him.

- Almost forgot to mention Mr. Mistoffelees (Storm Cat-Country Romance, Saint Ballado), who sold for $1.5 million a couple months ago after breezing an eighth of a mile in 10 1/5 at a two-year old in training sale, lived up to his price tage and took his maiden race field by storm. For his racing debut over 4.5 furlongs at Keenland, he started out with an opening quarter mile in 21.48, followed by a four furlong time of 43.89, and drew off to win by 9 1/4 lengths. A budding superstar? Only time will tell.

The Ghost of Derby's Past

2008-04-24T11:29:00.007-04:00

It's about this time every year that people start to make their tentative Derby predictions. Tentative because everyone wants to see how their favorites perform in their final workouts prior to the big race. Tentative because everyone wants to see the post-position draw before they truly commit. Tentative because you never really know when a horse might bow out to sickness or injury at the last possible moment (look at what happened to War Pass). And tentative because, well, everyone's been burned before.

Ask any number of handicapping fans (mind you, I haven't), what the hardest race in America to pick is, and probably every one would say the Derby. Most of the entrants have never run a full mile and a quarter before, and many never will again. They've probably never faced a field of the size (usually 20 entrants) and caliber that every Derby brings, and they almost certainly never will again. There's questions about the horse taking to the Churchill track (more significant this year with all the synthetic track specialists shipping in), about whether it will handle the travel to Kentucky like a pro, and about handling the heightened pre-Derby stress (trust me, they feel it too, even if just secondhand from their human handlers). It's not the average list of 20 variables, it's a list of twenty variables per horse. How many prior races? How many at 3? What are the speed figures? How did it do in the last race? Who's his daddy and did his daddy go the distance? What about his mom? Wait a minute, this is a filly we're talking about?!

One could go on and on.

So it should be no surprise to anyone reading this that I have never picked a Derby winner. That's right, never. Not in almost 20 years of devoted following of the sport. The only person I know with a worse track record in choosing winners is probably my grandmother-in-law, who in 76 years has never voted for a winning presidential candidate. As such, I thought I'd make all the handicappers out there who are feeling clueless right now feel a lot better by posting my failed picks for Derby's past (those I can remember anyways).

2007- Nobiz Like Showbiz (10th)
2006- Lawyer Ron (12th)
2005- High Limit (20th...god that's embarrassing)
2004- Imperialism (3rd)
2003- Peace Rules (2nd)
2002- Medaglia d'Oro (4th)
2001- Point Given (5th)
2000- War Chant (9th)
1999- Cat Thief (3rd)
1998- Favorite Trick (8th)
1997- Actually, I've no idea...maybe Pulpit? Anyways, didn't win.
1996- Skip Away (12th)
1995- Serena's Song (16th)
1994- Holy Bull (12th)
1993- Prarie Bayou (2nd)
1992- Pistols and Roses/Arazi (hey, so I bought into the superhorse hype...neither won)
1991- Best Pal (2nd)
1990- Pleasant Tap (3rd)....I think...give me a break, I was 11

So do I really have any hopes that Pyro will come in first on Derby day? No, not really. Unless I can somehow convince my grandmother-in-law to put some money on every other horse in the race.

In other news

- Just days after I commented to my husband that the powers that be better darn well award Better Than Honor as Broodmare of the Year, the powers that be acceded. A dam of both last year's speactacular Belmont winning filly Rags To Riches (by A.P. Indy) and the 2006 Belmont winner Jazil (by Seeking the Gold, and now a motion picture star), I can't think of a mare more deserving. The 12-year-old Deputy Minister mare out of the Blushing Groom mare, Blush With Pride, is the only broodmare to ever produce consecutive Belmont winners. And, she has a chance at producing a third since her 3-year old colt Casino Drive (by Mineshaft) has just been shipped over to the States from Japan and is pointing towards a Belmont start by way of the Peter Pan Stakes on May 10th. And if that weren't enough to convince you, her first foal, Teeming (by Storm Cat), was a $1.5 million weanling and a winner at the track. Good job sweetie, it's well deserved.

- Pepper's Pride is making a run for greatness, by attempting to remain undefeated in 16 races. If she's successful in this Saturday's Russell and Helen Foutz Distaff Handicap, run as usual against her fellow New Mexico breds, she will have tied the record of other racing greats in the Sweet Sixteen club, greats including Citation and Cigar. You go girl.

Horse Racing for Noobs

2008-04-22T11:02:00.008-04:00

It was pointed out to me that, for someone trying to get non-racing fans into the sport, my posts are a filled with jargon virtually unreadable to the common man. As such, I've decided to try and provide some layman explanations of terms and subjects which are second nature to horse racing aficionados. So without further ado, here's is the first post in my Horse Racing for Noob's series.

Lesson #1- Horse Racing Math

One of the things I used to find the most difficult to understand about horse racing was the math. I'm a verbally oriented person myself, and though I'd heard the classic joke about figuring out the speed of light in furlongs per fortnight (it's 1,802,617,500,000, by the way), that doesn't really tell you much if you don't know what furlong is. In a room of 6 intelligent folks this past weekend (not counting myself, of course) only one person knew what a furlong was, and he was accused of guessing.

A furlong, very simply, is 1/8 of a mile. Therefore, 8 furlongs (or 8f, as it may sometimes be shortened) is a mile. The American classic distance for a race is a mile and a quarter, or 10 furlongs. The mile and a half length of the Belmont (which is about as far as horses go in the Western hemisphere) is 12 furlongs. The Preakness is an oddball, being a mile and 3/16. That's 9.5 furlongs. Weirded out yet?

Now we bring speed into the picture. When horses work before a race they'll work a certain number of furlongs. Sometimes they'll 'gallop', which, despite being the name for the fastest gait a horse has, actually implies that the horse is going slow and not being pushed. They could also 'breeze', which means they are being encouraged a little, but not pushed into an all out drive. Sometimes they may have a "blowout", which is a fast work where the horse is pushed along a bit, and is often given shortly before an expected race. So how do you know when a horse is actually going fast, either in a race or a work?

Basically, although there is some variation over types of tracks and over the spread of years, it's accepted that a horse is going pretty fast when it runs a furlong in 12 seconds (that's about 37.5 miles per hour). This is somewhat archaically referred to as a "twelve-clip". I don't think people actually say that much anymore, but since I grew up reading books about great horses of the past, I tend to favor an older vocabulary. Most stakes horses should be able to string together at least 4 furlongs in 12, it's when you start getting beyond those distances that things get heavy. Here's the breakdown of times for various racing and working lengths (in minutes and seconds):

4 furlongs- 48 seconds
5 furlongs- 1:00
6 furlongs- 1:12
7 furlongs- 1:24
8 furlongs- 1:36
9 furlongs- 1:48
10 furlongs- 2:00
11 furlongs- 2:12
12 furlongs-2:24

This, of course, should not be taken to mean that the horses actually run 12 seconds every furlong; usually it's less than twelve for some furlongs of the race, more than 12 for others. But basically, if you see horses racing for the half mile pole in a race and the clock stops at 47 "and change" (meaning 47 seconds and a partial second), you know the front runners are not loafing along. If your horse works 4f in 46.60 (as Eight Belles did recently), you know it's blazing along (notably, Eight Belles' trainer thought she might have gone too fast for that workout).

Now, to show you how hard it is to keep this pace up. We'll do this by examining the three very familiar Triple Crown races (run conveniently at 3 different distances). As I said, most good horses can keep up this top speed for a handful of furlongs, but it gets progressively harder the longer you go. The mile and 3/16 Preakness should (if a horse were to keep up a twelve clip the whole time) produce a running time of 1:54. This running time has been equaled or beaten on numerous occasions in the history of the race.

Comparatively, in the 133 years the Kentucky Derby has been run, only 4 horses have ever finished the race with a time of 2:00 flat or better.* The fastest time ever for the Derby was 1:59 and 2/5 seconds (note that, although more sophisticated timers now allow for calculation of running times into the hundredths place, older races could only be determined down to fifths of a second and often people still refer to these divisions when referencing a horse's performance). So, even the fastest time ever for that classic race is only 3/5th's of a second faster than the 2 minute mark. Mind you, this is not the world record performance for a mile and a quarter distance, but given the myriad of difficulties a horse can run into in the Derby, it is by no means unimpressive.

Moving on to the Belmont, which at a mile and a half, is likely to be the longest race an American horse will ever run. The time of 2:24 has only been achieved once in the race, and that performance stands as the world record mark for that distance. The next closest finish for the Belmont is 2:26, meaning that the second best Belmont performer ever would still have finished 2 seconds behind the world record mark.

So what does 2 seconds mean, really? It doesn't seem like that much, but in a sport that measures time by fifths of a second regularly (and even smaller fractions practically), it's a considerable amount. Generally, 1/5th of a second is assumed to equal approximately one horse length. How much is that? Well, it's not an exact measurement. It's supposedly as long as a horse is from nose to tail, basically 8 feet or so. So, if we assume that a horse travels about 5 lengths every second, a horse 2 seconds behind another is cruising along 10 lengths (or 80 feet) behind the leader. More impressively, the horse that actually managed the 2:24 Belmont finished 31 lengths (or 248 feet) in front of the second place horse that day. Man o' War was once reported to have won a race (obviously, over questionable competition) by 100 lengths. Yes, that's 800 feet, or 266 yards (basically, 2 and a half football fields).

So there you have the basic math necessary to understand running times and works. I hope that this has been educational for you all.

* My favorite horse racing trivia trick question is "Name all 4 horses to have finished the Derby in 2 minutes or less." Answer (from fastest to slowest times) in inviso-text below:

Secretariat, Sham (who was 2nd to Secretariat), Monarchos, Northern Dancer

Movie (and weekend) review

2008-04-21T19:48:00.006-04:00

So I went to see The First Saturday in May. I dragged my husband along too, so that I could get the perspective of a relative outsider. Our final analysis? It was a darn good movie.

Allow me to preface any review by saying I am not a Barbaro fan. Yes, he was a darn good horse. Yes, he won the Derby by an impressive margin. Yes, his win, and even his career ending injury, did a lot to promote the sport. However, I was never a big fan of his before the Derby, and my fandom post-Derby 2006 amounted only to that deep urge within me to someday actually see a Triple Crown winner in the flesh, and not from any real belief that Barbaro, specifically, would provide that experience for me. He represents to me all that I do not support in thoroughbred breeding: a horse that flashed brilliance for a short time, but couldn't stay sound long enough to truly make a name for himself. I was appalled when they re-named the Sir Barton stakes in his honor. Thanks for taking the first horse to prove his grit in the American Triple Crown and replacing him with a horse that couldn't cut it. So, I was a tad worried that this movie might end up being the "All Barbaro Show". To my great pleasure (and surprise) it wasn't. My husband even thought that there wasn't enough Barbaro coverage. I, myself, have to admit that I thought they'd at least show him breaking through the Preakness gate, if not his quick cruise to the rear of the pack after Prado realized there was something wrong in the stretch.

This story was about six horses, and not just the eventual winner. More importantly, it was about the two legged companions to the horses, without which they'd be little more than hay composting machines. I thought the Hennegan brothers did exactly what they set out to do; make a movie about the people behind the horses. I loved their coverage of Lawyer Ron's 61 year old groom. You don't rub horses into your 60's for the money, you do it because you love the animals. In fact, that was a running theme among all the players in the movie, which I thuoght was brought out very well. It's a hard life to work racehorses. It's demanding. There's little reward or thanks. But the reward itself is in the horseflesh, and the ability to be near it every day.

One of the parts that almost brought me to tears was when Achilles of Troy's trainer was watching his 11 year old daughter in a horse show. His grooming of the horse and braiding its mane reminded me of how my own father would help me when I was showing. We have never had a great relationship (all right, let's be frank, I really, really don't like my dad), but one thing we could agree on was horses. It was all the more touching because you knew the dad was trying so hard to get somewhere in life so that he could make things better for his kids, and if you remember anything about Achilles of Troy in 2006, you knew that this was not going to be his year.

All of this being said, the brothers didn't forget that the horses, too, were integral to the cast. From the first close up shot of Barbaro's distinctively snipped muzzle, to Jazil holding a mint between his lips (and clearly confused about just what the hell to do with it), the Hennegans captured the fact that each of the contenders was a character unto themselves.

I listened carefully to a lot of my husband's comments. First, he liked the movie, which he stated was unexpected. Secondly, he felt that what the movie did for him was make him realize just how much each of the horses covered deserved to be in the Derby. He stated that he usually only pays attention to the favorites, or the horses I mention to him in passing (being only an itinerant fan himself). He certainly didn't remember Sharp Humor, but after seeing replays of his gutsy races that spring, realized that all the 20 Derby horses are the cream of the crop, and most certainly earned their shot at greatness. Finally, he really liked that the trainers the Hennegans chose to follow were not all the huge mega-stars of horse racing. When Todd Pletcher makes a cameo appearance towards the middle of the film, he seems almost out of place. Like he's on a pedastal that the heroes of the movie all aspire to.

My final impressions:

1. My belief that Kiaran McLaughlin is the nicest guy in horse racing was re-affirmed
2. I had forgotten how much I adored Lawyer Ron that year, and still do
3. I had forgotten about Jazil's where-the-heck-did-he-come-from Wood finish (after which I leaned over to my husband and whispered, "You know who his little sister is?")
4. Loved hearing my husband laugh at all the appropriate parts
5. I suppose I shall have to pick up a DVD copy...it is for charity

In other news

- Tomcito bombed in the Lexington. So did Atoned and Salute the Sarge. Behindatthebar triumphed, but it looks as though the Derby is not in his plans. Likely Derby entrants to come out of the Lexington: 0.

- I turned on the Lexington Stakes coverage a few minutes late to catch a list of horses with graded earnings and immediately thought, "Wait a minute, where's War Pass? He should be at the top." I hurriedly rewound the show to the beginning of coverage (thank you TiVo, I love you) to hear that War Pass was now off the Derby trail due to injury. Horses getting scratched from the Derby is not an unknown, however, it's rare that such a scratch could potentially change the whole character of the race. Here, with War Pass being one of the expected pace-setters, the outlook of the race has changed dramatically. Now who will Big Brown have to run at? Bob Black Jack? Maybe. Or maybe Big Brown will end up being the pace of the race.

- Two days after making his world premier as a movie star, Brother Derek came back after a 14.5 month layoff to grab second place in a one mile allowance race. The game old veteran appeared tired aftre the race, and I think, unfortunately, it may be time to retire the star to greener pastures.

- I'm glad I wasn't the only one heartened to hear Randy Moss say that the time of excessive whipping should be coming to an end. I almost teared up when I heard Jerry Bailey state that most horses will give you their all without a touch of the whip. I have tried again and again to tell this to people who are violently anti-racing, but until people in America recognize this and set clear rules regarding the use of the whip, I pretty much have no legs to stand on.

Revenge of the Mystery Horse?

2008-04-18T17:03:00.004-04:00

This weekend a bunch of horses in dire need of graded stakes earnings will take to the synthetic track at Keenland for the Lexington Stakes. Will the Derby winner appear from this mass of hroseflesh. Eh, probably not, but it's still worth a look

Lexington Stakes

The story, once again, is all about Tomcito (Street Cry-Inside Or Outside, by Eastern Echo). We still don't know what this horse can do, but we're pretty sure he can do something good. You don't win mile and a half stakes races anywhere in the world without having some modicum of talent, the question is: How much? There's also a question of how he'll take to the synthetic track. After last week's Pyro debacle, I'm not trusting anyone to take to Keenland's surface well. But he apparently posted a 46 and change 4f work this past week over the polytrack. Really, I can't fault him here. If he wins, I just might have to start referring to the Derby as "The Mystery Horse Rides Again".

Atoned (Repent-Amidst, by Icecapade) was completely flat in the Illinois Derby, but he certainly wasn't the only one. A bunch of good horses threw a bad race that day, and I'm willing to give a number of them the benefit of the doubt. Prior to that unhappy race he was just nipped by Big Truck's speedy closing drive in the Tampa Bay Derby. Prior to that he was just nipped by Court Vision late closing drive in the Remsen. Seeing a pattern? So are a lot of people. Clearly, Atoned has some ability. Aside from his last race and a maiden race last June, he has been first or second every time out. However, there's that synthetic question again, he's never run on it. Regardless, I'll be looking for a repeat of his prior performances tomorrow.

Big Glen (Cactus Ridge-Zamba Canuta, by Unaccounted For) looked good winning the Rushaway a few weeks back, but I think the competition might be a bit much for him this time. Racecar Rhapsody (Tale of the Cat-Reflect the Music, by A.P. Indy) didn't run all that well over this track in the Lane's End Stakes (he finished 4th).

Salute the Sarge (Forest Wildcat-Dixie Ghost, by Silver Ghost) won his sole race this year, the 6 furlong San Miguel Stakes. One has to question his ability to route, seeing as how he's had only 2 prior starts over distances. But one, the sloppy Breeder's Cup Juvenile, he could blame his poor 9th place performance on the off track. The other was a second place finish in a grade I mile and 1/16 race. I don't see why he couldn't go the distance tomorrow.

Samba Rooseter (Songandaprayer-Illumination, by Devil's Bag) appears to be slowing, but steadily, improving. However, his last race, a second place finish in a mile allowance race, doesn't translate weel to the Lexington. He's never raced beyond a mile, never raced on polytrack, and never raced in stakes company. That's one (or more) question too many.

1. Tomcito
2. Atoned
3. Salute the Sarge

Nope. Nothing exotic there. Well, except that Tomcito is, in himself, exotic.

In other news

-Yes, yes. I got my tickets to The First Saturday in May.

- Court Vision just worked four furlongs in 46.20 over Churchill's track. My, my, my....things are getting interesting.

- Proud Spell. Will she or won't she? Oh come on girls, just make up your minds. It's not buying shoes, you know.

Forget the Derby countdown

2008-04-17T14:02:00.003-04:00

Work has unfortunately gotten in the way again and so my idea of profiling one Derby starter per day in the 20 days leading up to the Derby looks to fall flat. However, one of my co-workers will be attending the Derby this year with some friends and asked me for my picks. Mind you, I really don't want to commit myself this early (hey, we've still got the Lexington Stakes!), but I thought I'd give it a whirl anyways. Here's the very simplified explanation I sent to him:

You asked that I provide some good picks for the Derby/Oaks. I've tried to put in both logical and fun choices (because people rarely bet the Derby sensibly, and usually lose when they do). Finally, I've listed some of the horses that will be played up and bring in low odds (meaning a low payout if they win), but who I definitely don't think are worth a $2 ticket.

Kentucky Derby-

Sensible Choices:

Pyro- This is my Derby horse. Although he finished 10th last weekend in the Bluegrass Stakes, I still love him. I love him almost more now as he won't be going into the race as the favorite. I am willing to throw out his last race and say he didn't like the synthetic track.

Colonel John- This is my #2 horse. The only thing he hasn't done this spring is run on traditional dirt (which is the Derby surface), but he runs as if the switch won't bother him.

Z Fortune- Second in his last race after going very wide on the first turn. I liked this horse months ago before he tailed off in form a bit. He looks to be making a comeback.

Feel good choices:

Eight Belles- This lone filly is still not 100% sure that she'll enter the Derby. If she goes in the Oaks she won't be worth the short price. If she goes in the Derby, she'll make a story of it. This year is the 20th anniversary of Winning Colors' (a famous filly) Derby win.

Recapturetheglory- Twenty years ago the owners and trainer of this horse entered a classy son of Secretariat, named Risen Star, in the Derby. He finished 3rd, but went on to win the Preakness and Belmont and be a real quality colt. His owners bought this horse, and named him, entirely with the idea of once again making a try at the roses.

Tomcito- The Mystery Horse. He's a big stakes winner in Peru and just finished 3rd in his first American stakes race (also, notably, his first start as a three year old). He's won stakes races up to a mile and a half in length (and over older horses) in his own country. The one knock against him is he's going into the Lexington Stakes this weekend because he needs to earn some more graded stakes purses before they'll let him into the Derby field. In other words, he may not even make it into the race.

Don't bother betting:

Big Brown- He'll probably be the favorite, but I think he's just a fad.

War Pass- Also going to be one of the favorites. I am all but convinced he cannot run a mile and a quarter, especially not with a hot pace.

Monba- He had a good last race (winning the Bluegrass), but I just don't think he's a traditional dirt horse.

Kentucky Oaks-

Bsharpsonata- I really like this horse. She was a gutsy second her last race out and I think she will only improve off of it.

Ariege- Has never won a stakes on conventional dirt, but I think she has a good chance.

She's All Eltish- I called this horse to win her last race, which was her first stakes performance, and she brought in a good betting price. I'm now a bit sweet on her.

In other news

- We get two periodicals delivered at my house and in one of them this week Jerry Bailey was interviewed. Strangely enough, not the subscription you would have expected.

- Eight Belles. Will she or won't she? Come on, it's the Derby. Nothing gets owners' blood boiling like the Derby. I'm thinking yes, though I'll hold off on saying whether or not I think it's a good idea.

Weekend recap

2008-04-13T19:29:00.019-04:00

This morning, after getting up and viewing my TiVo-ed recordings of yesterdays races I blinked, shook my head in confusion, and seriously reconsidered the amount of time I spend updating this blog. Well, not seriously...Actually, my husband will tell you that I screamed, "What the Hell!" at the screen, waking him from his otherwise peaceful slumber. Let's just get on with the torture why don't we.

Bluegrass Stakes
Photo: AP Photo/Ed Reinke
Monba proved that he did have a stakes caliber race hiding in him, and although he didn't entirely disprove my belief that he should be running on grass (seeing as how polytrack is almost but not quite completely unlike grass), he did manage to smack me in the face and simultaneously cement himself firmly on the Derby trail. Do I think he has a chance at the roses? Hell no (warning: If you haven't figured it out already, there's likely to be significantly more profanity in this most recent post than you're likely to find in most of my less angrily written diatribes. Cover your young children's eyes). Cowboy Cal wasn't that huge of a surprise to come up for second, making it a Todd Pletcher exacta....which was pretty much the only good thing about this race. The Toddster has been sitting in my RttR stable all year twiddling his thumbs and finally earned a little of his keep. Mind you, he had to do it beating two of my Derby favorites....the bastard.

Photo: Jeff Haynes

Pyro, of course, is the story of the day, finishing 10th in the twelve horse field. Tenth. My initial reaction to that finish (other than the screaming) was to think, "How on earth could a good horse like that finish 10th?" My incredulity was soon echoed by Jerry Bailey, who appears to firmly believe that you can draw a line through this race and blame it on the surface. I have to admit, it had looked to me early on as if Pyro was struggling a bit with the synthetic surface, but then what do I know about how a horse should look running on synthetic versus dirt? Nothing. Having Jerry, who must be an expert at such analysis, echo my instincts made me feel better, but not significantly. My other picks for the race were equally unimpressive and I now officially hate the Bluegrass and the horse it rode in on.

1. Pyro- 10th
2. Halo Najib- 7th
3. Visionaire- 5th
4. Medjool- 8th

Final analysis of the race? Forget it. I still like Pyro. I am willing to believe, despite all my screaming instincts to the contrary, that this was just a fluke. That the horse just really didn't like the surface. I stayed a fan of War Pass after his Tampa Bay debacle, and he paid his fans back with, if not a win, then at least a high quality finish in the Wood. I will stick with Pyro. He is officially, for better or worse, my Derby horse.

So mote it be.

Arkansas Derby

Gayego proved that he could get it done on real dirt this weekend and took the Arkansas Derby for all it was worth. One wonders how Georgie Boy might have taken apart this field. Regardless, Gayego had to hold off a late close from one of my early favorites Z Fortune, who, had he not been held waaaaay wide on the first turn, might have put in a much nicer performance. Tres Borrachos stayed in the mix, just holding on for third. Everybody else pretty much just let me down.

1. My Pal Charlie- 5th
2. Liberty Bull- 12th
3. Z Fortune- 2nd

Photo: Coady Photography

Holy Bull Stakes

Hey Byrn grabbed himself a few more graded earnings and may now be headed for Kentucky. However, this race was not exactly full of class, and represented a significant step down for the horse. Needless to say, the competition on Derby day will be a lot fiercer. Plus, having bounced back into this race only after a 2 week layoff from the Florida Derby, Hey Byrn's Triple crown future will look like this:

Florida Derby - 2 weeks-Holy Bull- three weeks - Derby- two weeks - Preakness - three weeks - Belmont

That's - count em- 10 weeks and 5 races in stiff company. Yeah, the iron horses of the past might have managed that kind of campaign. Not so Hey Byrn. At least he's got me spelling his name right this time.

Dream Maestro and Famous Patriot advanced from their maiden only ranks to a little blacktype of their own, and Bipolar Express proved that naming isn't everything.

1. Famous Patriot- 3rd
2. Hey Burn- 1st
3. Bipolar Express- last

Photo Adam Coglianese/AP

In other news

- Despite articles claiming, after her nice, but not stunning, win over Pure Clan in the Fantasy Stakes that Eight Belles (Unbridled's Song-Away, by Dixieland Band) would be pointed towards the Kentucky Oaks, it now appears as though she might be headed to the Derby after all. Although I would like to see this girl take it to the boys (she does so remind me of the late Winning Colors), I don't seriously think she would be a real contender for the roses. Rather, I would see her move as leaving the way all that much clearer for my Oaks favorite, Bsharpsonata.

- In similar news, Adriano (A.P. Indy-Gold Canyon, by Mr. Prospector), whose connections insisted that they really weren't thinking roses, now also appears to be pointed for the Kentucky Derby. Note to those horses on the graded earnings bubble? Don't hold your breaths.

- In The Bloodhorse special Kentucky Derby preview edition this week there was a story where an old handicapper talked about "visceral handicapping" and how the only way he seems able to pick out Derby horses is by figuring out which one would have the best human interest story upon winning. This interested me because I have absolutely zero luck picking Derby winners and am always looking for an insider's perspective. If the article's author is correct, I think I've found this year's "Best Story" horse. Recapturetheglory, who burst on the Derby scene last week while wrestling the Illinois Derby away from highly favored Denis of Cork. Trained by Louie Roussel III, who co-owns the colt with Ronnie Lamarque, this horse was purchased with the intent of...ummm...recapturing the glory the two old horsemen had exactly twenty years ago, way back in 1988, with a little horse called Risen Star. One of the most famous offspring of Secretariat, he was taken wide that year in the Kentucky Derby, and finished third behind the grey filly Winning Colors and the tough colt Forty Niner. He then went on to win the Preakness and the Belmont stakes by an impressive 15 lengths. He went on to win top three-year old honors and would forever be one of the "what might have been" Triple Crown horses. Could his former owners do it again this year? Only time shall tell.

- I've decided to do a day by day chronicle of all the Derby entrants in the days leading up to the big race, for my own entertainment, and also for the benefit of my friends who I'm trying to encourage into racing fanatics (that is, if they can get past all the jargon). Look for my first installment tomorrow.

AWOL

2008-04-11T10:45:00.022-04:00

I've been absent from the horse blogging recently because I've been letting a little thing called work get in the way. I know, I know...how could I? Meanwhile, I've almost run out of time to make comment on the last week of major prep races for the Derby. Yes, I'm aware that the Lexington Stakes is next weekend and may feature some Derby hopefuls diving at graded earnings and a potential date with destiny (including, perhaps, Peruvian phenom Tomcito), however, I don't really expect that any of us will see a potential Derby winner come out of any race next week. As such, this weekend represents the last chance most 3-year olds will have to prove themselves before a run at the roses.

Bluegrass Stakes

For the first 10 years or so of my horse racing obsession (approximately years 8-18) I used the Bluegrass as my lodestone. Almost invariably, my favorite for the Derby was determined by who won the Bluegrass Stakes several weeks before the big day. Why? No real reason. I mean, it worked for Strike the Gold...and that was about it. I'll never forget the first Bluegrass I watched on television; it was won by Pistols and Roses that year, a beautiful stocky grey who never went on to do much of anything spectacular. Clearly, winning the Bluegrass is not a great determiner of greatness. However, this year I may be forced to look to its winner again for my Derby pick.

Pyro (Pulpit-Wild Vision, by Wild Again) has done nothing wrong this year. Where his chief rival at two, War Pass, embarrased himself in the Tampa Bay and came back to only hold on for second in the Wood, Pyro has proven a winner twice out. Others may turn up their noses at the slow pace of his races, at the relative quality of his opponents, at his less than impressive Beyers; however, I am not one of those people. He has won with ease and class his last two times out, and the switch to synthetic track is unlikely to hinder him. He warms up the mighty Curlin in his workouts (or perhaps it's the other way around?). The only reason I would have for not putting him on top would be my sneaking suspicion that I (if I were a trainer, that is) might want to take this race easy with my star colt and/or try something novel (like sending him to the front early) to test his versatility. If Pyro wins tomorrow he will be my Derby horse. If he finishes anywhere second through fourth tomorrow, I'll probably like him even better, and he'll still be my Derby horse. If he finishes out of the money I'll blink, shake my head in confusion, and seriously reconsider all the time I waste updating this blog.

Cool Coal Man (Mineshaft-Coral Sea, by Rubiano) looked good his last time out winning the Fountain of Youth, but seeing as how it was over the likes of the now less than stellar Elysium Fields and the questionable Court Vision, his stock has lessened considerably. I went back to look at the video, to see if maybe it looked like he was tiring at the end, and the answer is...not really.

Cowboy Cal (Giant's Causeway-Texas Tammy, by Stirke the Gold) is a turf horse making his first attempt at synthetic track. I liked Why Tonto's performance in the Hallendale Beach, and as such I can't help to be impressed by Cal's placing in that race. However, I feel he'll be hurt by the inside post, and may not take to the track either.

Big Truck (Hook and Ladder-Just a Ginny, by Go For Gin) has been driving his way up the Derby turnpike recently, with a clean win over Atoned (and, incidentally, a little horse named War Pass) in the Tampa Bay Derby, and a strong second place behind Fierce Wind in the Sam F. Davis Stakes before that. Mind you, both of those two horses have recently come into question as true contenders.

Halo Najib (Halo's Image-Najibe's Wish, by Sword Dance) was second to Adriano in the Lane's End Stakes recently, proving that my earlier assessment of him was a bit hasty. He's 2-1-0 in three tries on polytrack and, though I don't think he would be a winner in Pyro's company, I could easily see him rounding out the finish.

Stevil (Maria's Mon-Company Storm, by Storm Creek) was apparently entered as an anti-rabbit to deal with Pyro. His connections are quoted as saying:

[T]his is going to be the tortoise theory. We’re going to put him [Stevil] right in front of Pyro, and he’s not going to let Pyro pass him.

Seeing as how Stevil was 5th last out behind Pyro in the Louisiana Derby, one wonders why they didn't employ such strategies back then. Oh yeah, it's because Pyro was too busy kicking Stevil's behind to notice any such interference.

Last out, Monba (Maria's Mon-Hamba, by Easy Goer) was 12th in the Fountain of Youth, a dismal 40 lengths behind eventual winner Cool Coal Man. He's been an indifferent performer on synthetic track in the past. Will someone please get this colt some grass to run on? Miner's Claim (Mineshaft-Sapphire N' Silk, by Pleasant Tap) is something of a synthetic specialist and was second by a neck behind Big Glen in his first stakes try. Before that, he was unbeaten. Kentucky Bear (Mr. Greely-Tate, by Afleet) was 7th in the Florida Derby and a mainden winner at 1 mile before that.

Visionaire (Grand Slam-Scarlet Tango, by French Deputy) has been one of my babies since near the beginning. He literally came out of nowhere to nip Texas Wildcatter by a nose in the sloppy Gotham. In the Risen Star before that he was boxed in a bit, but finished strong and looked good coming in third behind Pyro. I really like this horse, but I'm really not sure if this is his race. The Gotham was and he put out all the stops for it, but I worry that maybe that was his peak, that maybe that dramatic closing gallop out of the fog was a little tiring for him.

Finally, Medjool (Monarchos) proved me right in his last race out when he went from being only maiden winner to finishing 3rd behind Adriano and Halo Najib in the Lane's End Stakes after being held 6 wide on the turn. His record is now 1-3-2 from 7, and even his maiden races have him finishing in the money with the likes of Coast Guard, Tres Borrachos, and Colonel John (who you may remember from last week when he vaulted himself to the top of the pre-Derby standings). I really, really like this horse. I really, really like that he's 30-1. I really, really can't back him with this much proven class in the race.

1. Pyro
2. Halo Najib
3. Visionaire
4. Medjool

This one was a seriously tough call. If I were the betting sort I'd put Medjool across the board, but I don't know what else I'd do.

Arkansas Derby

In recent years, this prep has given us both Lawyer Ron and Curlin, and has found its place amoung the legitimate final Derby preps. This year, the majority of heavy hitters appear to have gone elsewhere, but there's still a significant contingent of real horses to get me excited.

Blackberry Road (Gone West-Strawberry Reasno, by Strawberry Road) has yet to show me anything...ever. He was fourth last out in the Louisiana Derby, behind Pyro, My Pal Charlie (who he faces again today) and Yankee Bravo (who tanked out west last weekend). He has not won a race since June of 2007. Sorry, not interested.

Gayego (Gilded Time-Devil's Lake, by Lost Code) made a name for himself out west by finishing 2nd in the San Felipe behind the now sidelined Georgie Boy. Not too shabby for his first time out around two turns. He's 2-2-0 in 4 lifetime, but this will be his first time on real dirt. Golden Yank (Yankee Gentlement-Golden Charm, by Strike the Gold) was 4th in the Rebel and 3rd in the Delta Jackpot before that. Ho hum.

Liberty Bull (Holy Bull-Lasting Sensation, by Dehere) came back from a disappointing dead heat third place behind Denis of Cork and Sierra Sunset in the Southwest to win the WinStar Derby impressively. One of the two horses that beat him in the Southwest went on to flop, but the other put in a nice win before bowing out due to injuries. Prior to all this Liberty Bull caught my eye in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Let's see if he made a good choice in skipping his daddy's titular race this weekend.

Z Fortune (Siphon-Fortunate Faith, by Fortunate Prospect) really disappointed me by his 5th place in the Rebel. He had looked the best of the rest finishing second behind Pyro's impressive Risen Star charge, and in fact I had entered him in my original RttR stable based entirely on his win in the Lecomte Stakes. Can I just throw out that last race? I really didn't see any reason to excuse his bland performance.

My Pal Charlie completely vindicated my undying affection for Indian Charlie (Shahalo, by Halo) offspring this year with his strong second place behind Pyro in the Louisiana Derby. The handicapers comments say it all "No match; game second." Take the monster Pyro out of that last race, and I'd have no reason to doubt Charlie's performance here today.

1. My Pal Charlie
2. Liberty Bull
3. Z Fortune

Holy Bull Stakes

And finally we have the chaff. Couldn't make it with the big boys, but still need the graded earnings? Try the Holy Bull. With several maiden winners and a couple allowance specialists filling the field, there looks to be little challenge to any of the traditional Derby hopefuls in this race.

Hey Burn is making a quick turn around after his diappointing 4th in the Florida Derby just two weeks ago. There's no way this horse had any chance of bettering Big Brown on that day, but his connections obviously thought enough of his prior performances (winning back to back allowance races by a combined total of 20.5 lengths) to give him another chance.

Web Gem was second waaaaaay behind War Pass in his 2008 walkover opening race, and followed that race up with a 3rd place in an allowance race. His main claim to glory appears to be that he's a son of Fusaichi Pegasus. I never liked Fu Peg, and seeing him in a pedigree doesn't exactly make me do backflips.

Famous Patriot and Dream Maestro look to improve on their recent maiden wins. Both have won at this distance. Between the two, I give the nudge to Famous Patriot, because his last win seems to have come after a slight change in running style, which may suit him well again on Saturday.

Bipolar Express is a Michigan bred (yay home team!) who was 2nd and 3rd in minor Michigan stakes at two. If nothing else, he wins the prize for coolest name.

1. Famous Patriot
2. Hey Burn
3. Bipolar Express

In other news

- Groundbreaking was held this past week for the new Pinnacle Race Course. I'm already planning an opening day extravaganza.

- Fasig-Tipton got sold. To Dubai interests. Not at all sure what to think about that.

- Revised statistics now seem to show that synthetic tracks may actually be safer than traditional dirt tracks, though not by much. Regardless, this makes everyone who was shaking their heads in surprise after recent reports that the fancy-schmancy all-weather surfaces were no better at keeping horses alive than basic dust feel a little bit better. It certainly has got to have the California racing officials breathing easier, after they committed all their state's tracks to going rubber. Unfortunately, the story doesn't seem to say if the numbers regarding non-fatal injuries have been revised as well.

Weekend Recap

2008-04-07T10:04:00.002-04:00

Well, wasn't that interesting. This weekend I actually got my husband to sit down with me to watch the Derby preps and, for the first time this year, he's showing interest. Not much, mind you, but some. He does like to have some knowledge of who's running so that he can make not completely unintelligent picks come Derby day and then rub them in my face when they come in ahead of my own. Bastard. But enough of that. There were many questiones to be answered this weekend, and many answers were given.

Wood Memorial

After this race was won I turned to my husband and said, "Well that answers one question for me." Dearest husband was obviously confused. I elaborated, "Whether War Pass was a mile and a quarter horse."

Answer: No.

However, that wasn't the only question about War Pass to be answered this weekend. People were also wondering whether his depressing Tampa Bay Derby finish was just a fluke and whether he would be able to come back from it. The answer to that was a resounding yes. He is clearly a very good horse, and finished up exactly where I thought he would. He fought hard against the late closing Tale of Ekati (making a showing for himself for the first time this year), even though it seemed obvious to me that it took a lot out of him. Inner Light showed exactly what would happen to him in a race with a real pace, rabbiting up a storm (thank you connections of Inner Light for giving me the chance to explain to my husband the purpose of a rabbit). Also, he was a bit hot before the race, had in fact been so fractious acting up during transport that he ripped open his chin and had to have staples put in. That doesn't exactly speak in his favor. I'm sure we'll see him on Derby day, but will we see him in the horseshoe? I think not.

Giant Moon did just about what I expected him to, and also proved that he's probably not meant to be a ten furlong horse. Court Vision came up nicely, but not nice enough. His closing drive would not have benefitted from an extra eighth of a mile, that stretch was all Tale of Ekati's. Roman Emperor proved I was right to leave him out of my pick 5 this weekend. Texas Wildcatter surprised me, fading early. All in all, it could have been a much worse outcome.

1. Court Vision- 3rd
2. War Pass- 2nd
3. Texas Wildcatter- 8th
4. Giant Moon- 4th

Still don't like Tale of Ekati. Don't intend to add him to my stable (even though I could).

Santa Anita Derby

The question for this race was whether or not Colonel John, recent winner of the Sham Stakes, was the cream of the Californian crop.

Answer: Yes.

Colonel John proved definitively that he was a better horse than El Gato Malo in this weekend's renewal of the Santa Anita Derby. Not only that, his connections had him run out an extra furlong after the finish, just to prove that distance would not be a problem. Now, the only bogie that remains for him is whether he can perform on real dirt. My guess? Sure looks like.

Bob Black Jack continues to impress by running way beyond what one would assume he could physically stand. His connections are thinking roses, but I think they'll stay west were the races are short and the dirt is fake. Coast Guard made a nice comeback, he's certainly worth a second look. Yankee Bravo...ah, well....can't win em all.

1. Yankee Bravo- 4th
2. Colonel John- 1st
3. El Gato Malo- 5th

Illinois Derby

Qestion here was whether Denis of Cork was as good as he looked in the Southwest or whether he'd gone downhill in form since then.

Answer: Somebody get that colt some skis.

Yes, well, I had a sneaking suspicion when, immediately after I added him to my RttR stable, his connections decided to move him out of Arkansas and look for a race that was a "soft touch", that he may not be the world beater we all had hoped he was. Guess that suspicion has been confirmed now. Even giving him a significant layoff and putting him in a race where he was pretty much the only big name around, he still couldn't do better than 5th. Nor, for that matter, did Atoned, the Toddster's last grasp at Derby greatness this year, do anything worthwhile. No, instead we were treated with the sight of 15-1 shot Recapturetheglory cruising fairly easily to the lead and winning his stakes debut by 4. Z Humor managed to get up for 3rd, but was so unimpressive in this mediocre company that I don't think the performance will elevate anyone's opinion of him too much.

1. Denis of Cork- 5th
2. Atoned- 4th
3. Real Appeal- last

Yikes, that's all I have to say.

Ashland Stakes

Longshot Little Belle also managed an upset this weekend over the powerhouses that are Bsharpsonata and Proud Spell. Country Star, who probably needed a prep or two before this race, acted up before the start and was never a factor. Absolutely Cindy failed to repeat her recent impressive win over the boys. In my analysis, Bsharpsonata is still all that. Look for her to head my Oaks trifecta.

1. Bsharpsonata- 2nd
2. Proud Spell- 3rd
3. Absolutely Cindy- 6th

In other news

- Eight Belles (Unbridled's Song- Away, by Dixieland Band) won the Fantasy Staks, cementing herself at the top of the filly standings. Although it looks as though she very well might give the lillies a pass and point at the roses. I gotta say, this girl sure looks like one of the boys, and I'd love to see her try them.

Would you believe...

2008-04-04T10:34:00.010-04:00

...I have 6 RttR horses running this week? Six! That's never happened before. Seeing as how you can only have 5 active horses at a time, I'm actually going to have to boot one of the poor things to the side. What a weekend this is working up to be (though it would be pretty hard to beat the double punch that was Big Brown and Curlin last week)! Let's start with the race which actually has none of my runners in it:

Santa Anita Derby

If sythetic tracks are supposed to be "all weather" why are the majority of them in relatively rainless areas such as Southern California and Arizona? No matter. Any horse who makes his name running on them, no matter how good, will always be suspect in the minds of Derby prognosticators until they actually run a time or two on real dirt. One of the few in this field to have done so and comport himself well is Yankee Bravo (Yankee Gentlemen-Vicky Jane, by Royal Academy). I thought enough of this guy after his strong showing behind Pyro and My Pal Charlie in the Louisiana Derby that I included him in my stable's second round draft. He's something of a closer, and the pace is likely to be hot up front in this race. Although no one has yet managed to tire the speedy Californian's he'll be facing today, it has to happen sometime; and today is just as likely as any other for them to finally bend to the inevitable and get taken from behind.

Among the confirmed speedsters are major Derby contenders Bob Black Jack, El Gato Malo and Colonel John. The latter two hooked up their last time out to fill the exacta of the Sham Stakes. Colonel John (Tiznow-Sweet Damsel, Turkoman) was the easy victor in that one, but he also got the best of the running. He put in a bullet 6f in 1:10 and change earlier this week and looks snazzy. Meanwhile, El Gato Malo (El Corredor-One Bad Cat, by Mountain Cat) was forced wide and then wavered through the stretch. I thought he was the better horse before the race, and if he can keep his wits about him this time I think he may still be. A Hair perhaps devides the False and True. . . so too these colts.

Bob Black Jack (Stormy Jack-Molly's Prospector, by Native Prospector) surprised me in the San Felipe by actually managing the whole 1 and 1/16 distance to hang on for third, but he was in no way the equal of eventual winner and place horses Georgie Boy and Gayego. He held, but just barely. I don't think the added sixteenth of this race will give him any assistance.

Coast Guard (Stormy Atlantic-Vassar, by Royal Academy) was, at one point, also a major Derby contender, but his 8th place finish behind Autism Awareness in the El Camino Real Derby put that pretty much out of everyone's minds. However, that was his sole start on "real" dirt. Prior to that he was 1st or 2nd in every start on synthetic track, including a not to be ignored placing behind Crown of Thorns in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

I'm not too enthralled with the others, but I'm going to keep my eye on Meetingwithdestiny, who just broke his maiden going 1 mile and 1/16 on synthetic track; which came as a nose victory over Screen to Screen. The latter, you may remember, recently finished a not unimpressive second to Liberty Bull in the WinStar Derby.

1. Yankee Bravo
2. Colonel John
3. El Gato Malo

Wood Memorial

Ooh, this is gonna be a toughie. I've got 4 horses in this race, and not a one of them but has something to prove. Also, it's hard to know what to do with all the colts who made their previous
start in the Gotham Stakes. With the fog the way it was, we don't really know how any of the horses performed there. Were those who finished up the track just beaten or was there some crowding on the backstretch that impeded them? Could their performances be blamed on the wet track or was it just a case of lower class horses getting smacked around by their betters? What does it mean that Visionaire has left the field? Arrrgggghhhh!!!! So many variables.

Texas Wildcatter (Monarchos-Mike's Wildcat, by Forest Wildcat) was just nipped at the wire by the late closing Visionaire in the muddy Gotham, and for once we might give real weight to the idea that he didn't see the eventual winner galloping ghostlike out of the mist. There's some real speed in this race and I think it might set things up perfectly for him this time. Fourth in the Gotham was Roman Emperor (Empire Maker-Lady Melesi, by Colonial Affair), but at 9+ lengths behind the top two he might as well have been in a different race. Prior to that mudbath he was a close second behind Barrier Reef (hey, what ever happened to him?) in the Whirlaway and 3rd in the Count Fleet behind the since then discredited Giant Moon and Elysium Fields. I'd love to play him, but he honestly hasn't won anything since December.

And then there's Giant Moon (Giant's Causeway-Moonlightandbeauty, by Capote). Can we throw out the Gotham? If so, why? Because of the slop? It looks to drizzle this Saturday, but he's won before on "good" tracks. Because of Visionaire? That's no longer a factor. Because of the pace? What pace? We couldn't even see the pace! There's sure to be some hot horses this time out to tangle with, with Court Vision's rabbity stablemate Inner Light and the oh so recently deposed War Pass being chief among his competitors. I honestly don't know what to do about this guy. Do I just throw out the last race? I thought so much of him before. But that worries me because I'm afraid I'm just partial, emotionally tied down.

The worst thing one can do in handicapping is like a horse.

Coming to New York after his embarrassing finish in the Tampa Bay Derby is former Derby front-runner, War Pass (Cherokee Run-Vue, by Mr. Prospector). I admit, I laughed at his performance in his first stakes of the season. I love to see a favorite taken down a peg or two (I'll laugh my butt off if/when the day of reckoning comes for Big Brown). However, I have to shake my head at the people who dropped him like a stone after that performance. Handicapping is not a game of hot potato. Horses have bad days. War Pass was bothered at the start, and likely confused by feeling dirt fly in his face for the first time in his life. It's entirely possible that this rough experience will turn him off of racing for the future, at least any racing that doesn't involve a completely empty track before his nose. But it's also entirely possible, nay likely, that he'll take the experience and learn from it. Horses are not static creatures. Before his one slip-up this horse had decimated the best of his generation time and again, and I have to admit I like the game champion more now that he's proven himself human...err...horse....you know what I mean.

He's drawn post 5 for this race, so he's bound to have the same problems that he did in Tampa. Either he'll do it Saturday or he'll die.

Court Vision (Gulch-Weekend Storm, Storm Bird) was an uninspiring third behind Cool Coal Man and Elysium Fields (who we've recently found was not "all that") in the Fountain of Youth, but he went about 7 wide on the turn to get there. Prior to that he had a close win at this same course and distance, beating Atoned, and before that bested King's Silver Son. Mind you, that was all last year. But I can't help wondering if the FoY was a case of him being taken too far back behind too many horses...and still putting in a credible performance. His post position should keep him clear of trouble today.

Tale of Ekati has not done one thing this year to make me look at him twice. His 6th place finish in the Louisiana Derby is hardly worth note. Anak Nakal is making yet another try of it. He was 7th in the Rebel, 8th in the Fountain of Youth. Yawn. Why do people continue to talk about these hroses?

1. Court Vision
2. War Pass
3. Texas Wildcatter
4. Giant Moon

Strangely enough, that is 100% not the ordering I thought I'd end up with when I began my more in-depth analysis. Sorry Roman Emperor, you're booted from the stable for this week. Don't take it personally, it probably means you'll come home in front and I'll be smacking myself for my stupidity come Sunday.

Ashland Stakes

I'm including this race because a whole bunch of quality fillies have been nominated to the Triple Crown this year, and some of them are in this field. While everyone is wondering exactly what Country Star will do, I'm not all that interested. I'm sure she's trained fine for the race, but when I've got strong recent winners to play with, I tend to ignore those whose last race came 4 months prior. Bsharpsonata has, to my estimation, done nothing wrong this year. Proud Spell has also been very consistent. Absolutley Cindy was stunning in her triumph over the boys, but may have just caught a lucky break. I don't know much about Life is Sweet, whose one claim to fame seems to be her half-sisterhood to Sweet Catomine.

1.Bsharpsonata
2. Proud Spell
3. Absolutely Cindy

In other news

- The King has returned. Curlin apparently wheathered his trip back from Dubai well and has earned himself a well deserved rest in the Belmont barns.

Illionois, land of cowards

2008-04-01T14:03:00.006-04:00

With the plethora of exciting races this weekend, I'm going to have to start my analysis early.

Illinois Derby

Here we have the race that Derby hopefuls enter if they don't actually want to face any real competition prior to the first Saturday in May. Crowned, of course, by the king of fraidy-horses, Denis of Cork (Harlan's Holiday-Unbridled Girl, by Unbridled). He's still unbeaten and has raced several more times than last week's phenom Big Brown. His last was an impressive win in the Southwest Stakes in February. More recent winning performances by second placed Sierra Sunset and third placed Liberty Bull have flattered him. His stealthy evasion of all horses who could give him pause all but ensures his good performance here.

Atoned (Repent-Adrift, by Icecapade) was second by a neck last out to the quickly improving Big Truck in the Tampa Bay Derby. Before that he was second by a neck again. Both times fading after having gripped the lead briefly. Not what I want to see in a potential Derby runner.

Z Humor (Distorted Humor-Offtheoldblock, by A.P. Indy; a.k.a. the other Z-horse) was fourth in his recent test in the Fountain of Youth and just doesn't seem to be performing up to the style he projected in 2007. Golden Spikes (Seeking the Gold-A. P. Interest, by A. P. Indy) was 5th in the Fountain of Youth, and second before that to Cool Coal Man in a 1 mile and 1/8 allowance. Unfortunately, I'm not a Cool Coal Man fan, so that record completely fails to impress me.

Instill (Proud Citizen-Eboney, by Sports View) was 10th behind the flying filly Absolutely Cindy in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes. Before that he was 4th in the Smarty Jones. This is a case of "what have you done for me lately?" The answer: Not much. Recapturetheglory (Cherokee Run-Cold Awakening, by Dehere) was 3rd most recently in an allowance race. Ummm....why is he here? Real Appeal (Successful Appeal-Formal Process, by Diabolo) is the new kid in town. He won last out in a minor stakes going 1 mile. He's also put in a bullet work since then.

1. Denis of Cork
2. Atoned
3. Real Appeal

In other news

- This is too much fun. Combining all the enjoyment of a basketball bracket during March Madness with a sport I actually care about.

And they all fall down

2008-04-01T13:08:00.004-04:00

Today's update is brought to you by the sick and injured Derby hopefuls of the world.

- Fierce Wind totally justified my analysis of his performance by turning up hurt. The Daily Racing Form (which I have now just given up and taken a free subscription for) is reporting that Fierce Wind bled during the Florida Derby, and though that doesn't make up for the fact that his chances of getting into the real Derby gate are now pretty much nil, it at least boosts the egos of those of us who were backing him. He doesn't suck, he's just not 100%. Apparently his owner didn't think much of Nick Zito's decision to run him and switched him to relatively unknown trainer Rick Violette after the race.

-Elysium Fields also has something of an excuse as he was apparently on the verge of heat stroke after the race. Ummm...Barclay....that's not cool (pun not intended). Heat stroke doesn't just sneak up on you, and I know he was a tad sweaty beforehand. Did nobody - not his jockey, not his trainer, not the guy on the lead pony - nobody noticed this animal was nearing the distress mark before they got him into the gate?

- Georgie Boy also joins the ranks of those off the Derby trail. He came up with a severe muscle pull after a workout. Ouch.

- Big Brown...okay no, he's not injured. He's still fit and leading the ranks of the Derby contenders. Just kidding you. Or am I? Until this horse puts in another fast work I'm witholding comment on the status of his feet. I have a somewhat firm belief that a horse with hoof problems will always have hoof problems. The best they can hope for is to go into remission.

Oh, Bloody Hell!

2008-03-31T11:12:00.001-04:00

That's it, I'm out of the game. And so, apparently, is Elysium Fields.

That's more like it

2008-03-30T11:25:00.008-04:00

I had a sneaking suspicion that my luck at picking horses earlier this season was nothing more than that...luck. Alas, my hunch turned out to be true. I seem to have returned to my usual position of being usually wrong, with a few flashes of burning insight and the occasional "sure thing" pulling through for me. Let's start our weekend recap with the most heartening of performances.

Dubai World Cup

Having finished 3rd, 1st and 2nd respectively in America's three classic races, having compiled an overall race record of 6-1-2 in 9 previous lifetime races, which includes a win in the prestigious Breeder's Cup Classic, and having been named America's champion 3-year old male and Horse of the Year of 2007, one might question if Curlin had anything left to prove. Here in America he'd already been crowned king, but he still had to prove to the world that he was the best...the greatest...the finest piece of horseflesh prancing upon our tiny globe.

He did not disappoint.

Coming around the curve at the Dubai track, seemingly neck and neck with front runners Well Armed and Asiatic Boy, I have to admit I was concerned for a moment. Paused with the two leaders, having yet to switch his leads properly, the champion looked poised either for a romp or a complete failure. And then, seconds later, a collective sigh of relief could be sensed from thousands waiting with baited breath everywhere from Dubai to California. Drawing away from his opponents with relative ease, Curlin drove forward to win by 7 and 3/4 lengths, the largest margin in the history of the world's richest race.

And he made it look like a walk in the paddock.

None of my other picks even came close to the money horses, but really, who cares? This wasn't meant to be their race. Hell, it wasn't even meant to be the race of the two quality horses that Curlin left in his dust at the head of the stretch. This race belonged to Curlin, and we must thank him for giving us the experience.

Photo: Taken from The Aspiring Horseplayer

Florida Derby

What. The. Heck.

I sat there on my purple couch, watching my favorite Fierce Wind cruising to the rear, and said aloud, "Oh, that's not good." He finished 10th, which is at least one place better than my other favorite, Elysium Fields, who finished 11th in the twelve horse field. I'd call that a perfect storm of suckage. However, I shall try to be kind and not let my emotions take ahold of me and take away from the triumphs of those colts who actually did manage to finish in the money.

Big Brown made himself a perfect three for three with his romp in the Florida Derby. I have to admit, I never saw it coming. I just don't like speed horses this late in spring. I don't trust them to "go all the way". But you gotta admit that Big Brown has class. Unfortunately, it's the kind of class that puts me in mind of Bellamy Road. Remember him from a few years back? No, not really. Case rested.

Meanwhile, Smooth Air put in a nice performance finishing second, and likely buying himself enough graded earnings for a shot at the roses. Tomcito, the Peruvian mystery, was my sole good call. I was actually angry at the commentators before the race who were knocking him. I believe it was Randy Moss who said something along the lines of, "Of course he's never faced the caliber of horses we have here today." Oh, really? How do you know? I'm sorry, that's a tad Amero-centric of you. Maybe Peruvian stakes horses are not exactly the quality of American stakes horses, but South American wonders from the past have proved that this prejudice is mostly unfounded. Certainly, you'd have to admit that Peruvian stakes horses are at least as good as high quality American allowance horses...which is the most that winner and pre-race favorite Big Brown had ever faced previously. Tomcito proved that he had every right to be in this company, and if this hadn't been his first start in a new country (and his first start of 2008), I think he might seriously have given the eventual winner a run for his money.

You go Mystery Horse.

1. Fierce Wind- 10th
2. Elysium Fields- 11th
3. Tomcito- 3rd

And another thing? I still like Fierce Wind and Elysium Fields. I don't know what was up with the former's non-performance, but the way he was slipping steadily towards the back of the pack in mid-race did not look at all normal to me. I would not be surprised if, in the next few days, he turns up injured or sick. Unfortunately, there is absolutely zero chance of him being able to make the graded earnings necessary for a shot at the Derby this year. There goes another RttR slot wasted. As for Elysium Fields, I have absolutely no excuses. He got beat, and I don't know why. But I'm willing to give him another chance. Just one, mind you.

Shirley Jones

For the first time in a long time, a Malibu Moon has let me down. Sugar Swirl, who looked like the class of the race going into it, proved that she was. Baroness Thatcher backed up her dismal recent allowance performance with a second place finish I didn't think she had in her (honestly, I though she was on the slow decline to the breeding shed...my bad). Shaggy Mane put in a good performance, setting an honest pace and holding on to finish third. And Moon Catcher...sigh...can we just get this over with?

1. Mooncatcher- last
2. Sugar Swirl- 1st
3. Shaggy Mane- 3rd

Bonnie Miss

I know I didn't profile this one, but I feel the need to somehow make up for my otherwise crappy weekend. You'll just have to trust me that I liked She's All Eltish, who came in for the win. Really, I swear.

In other news

- Happy Birthday Secretariat. Did you happen to catch that monster chestnut taking on the world and winning with style yesterday? Yeah, I thought you might.

Let's get ready to RUMBLE!

2008-03-28T10:53:00.009-04:00

With this Saturday marking D-35 until the Kentucky Derby, things are certainly getting hot around here. But not as hot as for:

The Duel in the Desert!!
(a.k.a. the Dubai World Cup)

For this race we have a case of taking Curlin out of the mix, and figuring the exacta. I know, I know...a whole bunch of us were doing this very same thing with the Tampa Bay Derby, and look what happened there. Maybe I've just bought in to all the hype, but I seriously don't see Curlin losing. Mind you, if he does, it will be to some fairly stiff international competition.

Sway Yed has got a pedigree I've never even heard of, which may account for why he's 7 years old, still a horse, and not living the life of Riley as a sire. Since 2005 he's never been worse than second (in 10 starts), has never raced less than 1 mile 1/8, and has excelled in both stakes and allowance company. Whoo, boy.

Well Armed gets props for coming in ahead of Heatseeker twice recently, but he's primarily a CA horse and if the switch from the California synthetic tracks doesn't get him, the travel likely will. I would have liked to see him race a little over there first.

Happy Boy seems comparatively outclassed here, and more of a turf specialist. Sorry, I can back only one South American per week, and he's not it.

Kocab at least has a pedigree I can recognize and admire. But his last win, though nice, was only over allowance company. Before that he seems to have struggled.

I really like Great Hunter, but he's already let me down several times this year. I'm afraid he may be losing his touch.

I love Premium Tap. I mean that. He's the definition of a consistent horse. Love him. Loved his daddy way back when. Loved his mommy's daddy even before that. Had him in my trifecta for this race last year, and that panned out well. He may be getting up there in years and not be at the top of his game, but he's never let me down yet. Until he does, he's got a devoted fan.

Vermillion looks like a killer. I question the ability of any dirt horse coming out of Japan, and especially with El Condor Pasa on top. He completely failed in this race last year. He seems to have done well for himself since then, but a close examination of his recent close rivals brings into question why the same names keep coming up again and again. Fighting your friends on your home turf is not like fighting foreign monsters in another country.

Count me among the many who think Jalil is overrated. You'd never catch me spending $9.7 million on any horse. However, he is pretty hard to fault. There's no indication to me that his competition has been anything but top level, and he's won his last three tolerably well. He's had a prep in Dubai, which is more than I can say for most of the outsiders taking a chance here.

Asiatic Boy is a quality horse, but he's never run 10 furlongs before. I need something to whittle down this high class field, and that's enough. Plus I did say I'm backing only one South American this weekend.

Lucky Find gave me a pause. He has the classic look to me of a horse that tried too hard last out, and could easily come back well today. Then I realized that I was coming to the outside posts in my list. Hmmm...nope.

Seriously, how many horses are in this race?

Gloria de Campeao also will not be able to overcome the outside post. Not with so many other good horses who could do it better than him in the race.

Curlin, of course, is next. He requires no analysis.

A.P. Arrow rounds out the field. He's also a pretty boy. I saw a photo of him this week and assumed it was Curlin, then I realized the face markings were totally wrong. Love the pedigree. Not so hot on the second place to Spring at Last in the less than breathtaking Donn Handicap.

1. Curlin
2. Sway Yed
3. Jalil

And because I'm treating this race analysis as if Curlin weren't even there:

4. Premium Tap

And if that's not enough to get you excited, we also have the:

Florida Derby

This one starts off as a pretty easy pick because two of my RttR stable horses are in the race, and I wouldn't have picked them if I didn't think they were among the top 3-year olds in the country. My only concern in this race was who to put on top; the hard knocking Elysium Fields (El Prado-Dreams, by Silver Hawk) or the impressive three for three Fierce Wind (Dixie Union-Post Parade, by A.P. Indy). I was leaning towards Fierce Wind because Big Truck (fast closing second to Fierce Wind in the Sam F. Davis Stakes) just flattered Fierce Wind with his Tampa Bay Derby win. Then the colt drove all questions from my mind by putting in a 46.80 four furlong workout. There you go, exacta determined.

The question remains, which of the numerous fine animals making an appearance in this race can I use to fill out my trifecta?

A lot of attention recently has been paid to allowance company superstars Big Brown (Boundary-Mien, by Nureyev) and Hey Burn (Put it Back-Restaining Order, by Skip Trial). The former is unbeaten in his 2 lifetime starts, with a combined total win margin of 24 lengths. This will be his first shot at stakes company, and his first time on normal dirt. Meanwhile, Hey Burn has won his last two by a combined margin of 20.5 lengths. He's been in stakes company previously, but could only manage a place and 4th. Both of these colts are obviously far above and beyond the quality of the allowance competition they've been facing. Both look likely to have a breakout performance in this race. Both have sires who's classic producing potential is iffy. In essence, I see nothing to separate the two. They are complete equals in my mind, and I can't back either of them. I dunno, I just get the feeling that they cosmically cancel each other out or something. Also, I think it's late in the year to be meeting your first real stakes competition, and given the depth of quality in the Florida Derby field, I think they're going to be outclassed.

Also making a well deserved jump up from allowance company are: Nistle's Crunch, who was 3rd in a turf stakes previously and won a 1 and 1/8 mile allowance race his last out, B B Frank, who came in second to Nistle's Crunch in his recent allowance win, Cool Gator, who scored the show in the same race, and Face the Cat (still a Helen Pitts trainee!), who last out won a 1 mile allowance race in January over the likes of...wait for it...Nistle's Crunch. And if you can unweave that tangle of horses, more power to you. Just keep repeating to yourself, "There is no transitive property of handicapping".

Smooth Air has some real stakes experience, he finished 3rd behind Fierce Wind and Big Truck in the 1 mile 1/8 Sam F. Davis Stakes. He was also first in the 7f Hutchenson. That would generally be enough to put him at the top of my list, but after seeing his races, I honestly think he's more of a 7-8f horse in general. Majestic Warrior has also seen stakes competition, but has failed to live up to pretty much anyone's expectations of him this year.

And then there's Tomcito (Street Cry-Inside Or Outside, by Eastern Echo). What do we know about this Peruvian invader? Bred in Kentucky, from an Irish stallion whose progeny took the roses last year. We don't know who he's faced or the depth of their quality. What we do know is that he's raced 5 times in his life and finished first four times (he has a single place finish). That he's raced and won at everything from 5.5 furlongs to a mile and a half. That his 4 wins give him a combined total margin of 39 1/4 lengths (that's an average of 9 and 3/4 lengths between him and the place horse). That he's faced older competition (because of South American standards), and stakes competition at that. And that his connections thought enough of him to risk shipping him all this way for a chance at America's classic race. Oh, did I mention he worked a bullet 5 furlongs last week?

Give me a button that says "I Like the Mystery Horse."

1. Fierce Wind
2. Elysium Fields
3. Tomcito

Shirley Jones Stakes

I know, why am I not profiling the Palm Beach Stakes? It's got 3-year old colts? Because I don't believe any of the contestants have a chance at the Derby. Plus, this race just looks more interesting. I'm not going to say much (I'm tired of typing as it is) except to say that I always back a Malibu Moon colt or filly when I can. Seeing as how she hasn't appeared since winning the Maryland Million Oaks last October, Moon Catcher is bound to be a hefty price, and she's got my vote. I'm also a fan of Shaggy Mane, who I think likes the track. Sugar Swirl is clearly the horse to beat, let's see if any of these girls can top her.

1. Moon Catcher
2. Sugar Swirl
3. Shaggy Mane

Caption this photo

2008-03-27T09:25:00.011-04:00

Curlin: Oh yeah! I am the stuff!
Grey Lead Pony: Ugh! Gag me with a spoon.

News on the wire is that Curlin has drawn post 12 of 13 for the Dubai World Cup Saturday. Will it have any effect on his performance? I'm thinking no. I am more sure of his victory this year than I was of Invasor's last year. Mind you, the last time I felt this assured of a horse's performance was when Lost in the Fog failed to fire in the Breeder's Cup Sprint. You can put that one in the file of "races that broke my heart." There are just too many high class races in Dubai this weekend, with too many good foreign horses in them for me to focus on any race but this one. And I am apparently not alone in my enthusiasm. However, it has yet to inspire me to make Rocky references.

In other news

- Denis of Cork (Harlan's Holiday-Unbridled Girl, by Unbridled), recent impressive winner of the Southwest Stakes whose connections felt he needed a bit of a layoff afterwards, may not be able to enter the Wood Memorial (g.I) in New York because of "travel complications." Apparently his trainer is having problems arranging for a plane and doesn't want to keep his horse in a van for upwards of 16 hours. Okay, I've had horses...and I've had my share of trailering issues...so I get not wanting to push the horse into an unhappy situation. But are you telling me there are no friendly farms between Arkansas and New York where the driver and his charge couldn't get a night's rest before moving on to the Empire State? I'm thinking Denis' problem is not the drive but a bogie named War Pass; not to mention Court Vision, Giant Moon, Tale of Ekati and Texas Wildcatter...all probable starters for the Wood. Denis' connections now appear to be pointing him towards the Illinois Derby. Who's in that you ask? Well since Denis' stablemate Blackberry Road will now be scratched in favor of appearing in the Arkansas Derby (and why is Denis not just sticking around for that, I wonder), the answer is....ummm...no one.

- The owners of recently retired Rags to Riches have agreed to donate their royalties from the sales of the Breyer model horse in the image of their Champion filly to the Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund. Wait a minute...Rags to Riches has her own Breyer model? Sorry, must stop blogging now and go buy one. Who am I to argue with charity?

Photo: Dubai Racing Club

Thanks for the memories

2008-03-25T07:56:00.009-04:00

The sad news this morning is that champion Rags to Riches (A.P. Indy-Better Than Honor, by Distorted Humor) has been retired and is booked to first class Storm Cat son Giant's Causeway. Retiring with a record of 5-1-0 from 7 starts, which included impressive wins in the Kentucky Oaks (g.I), over the likes of Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies and Champion 2-year old female Dreaming of Anna, and the Santa Anita Oaks (g.I). And of course, there was her history making win over eventual Horse of the Year Curlin in the 2007 Belmont Stakes, where she went eye to eye with some of the most talented colts in America for a mile and a half and made her name as only the third filly to ever win that classic race (and the only one to win it at that distance). She was sidelined last year after fracturing her pastern in the Gazelle Stakes (g.I), which race remains her lone second place, to high quality older mare Lear's Princess. All signs pointed to her triumphant return to Todd Pletcher's stable this season, and a work several days ago seemed to show her in fine form. However, it was not to be. She re-injured her leg and her connections decided to take advantage of the breeding season while they still could.

I do love a good filly, and I will never forget this one. How could I? The image of her battling down the stretch at Belmont with a game partner by her side is seared into my memory forever. I'll never forget my husband's comment at the end of it.

"They should breed."

I had to explain that they shared broodmare sires and that it probably wouldn't be advisable. Before I got into horse racing blogging I thought I was the only person who ever sat down with a stallion register and tried to pick out a worthy match for Rags to Riches. I had thought something in the Unbridled line would suit her well. Giant's Causeway will no doubt do fine, but I feel he brings too much grass into a pedigree made to go the US classic distances on dirt. Additionally, their offspring will be inbred 5x5 to Secretariat and to Blushing Groom. That's a little close for my comfort, but whatever. We can't all be complete outcrosses.

Meanwhile, with her dam having now produced two consecutive Belmont winners, and a potential third in Casino Drive (Mineshaft), we can expect equally great things from her champion daughter.

Good luck in the bluegrass my darling. You will be missed.

In other news

-Curlin is ready to rumble in Dubai. They even have someone blogging about it. Perhaps I'm just buying in to the hype, but seriously, this horse just looks good. He shines in the desert sun like a new penny. His connections in Dubai seem almost at a loss to describe his fitness, and though they try to skirt around the language, essentially catch themselves declaring him to have the "look of eagles".

- Did anyone else catch Fierce Wind's most recent work? Four furlongs in 46 and change! Thank you for cementing yourself in place on top of Elysium Fields for my picks this coming weekend.

- Pepper's Pride (Desert God-Lady Pepper, by Chili Pepper), a New Mexico bred racing primarily in state-bred races just won the Sydney Valentini Handicap to remain unbeaten in 15 lifetime starts. As such, she's brought her lifetime winnings up to $816,665 and, should she be able to hang on for just one more race, will have tied the modern Thoroughbred record of 16 unbeaten starts and share title with such racing greats as Citation, Cigar, Mister Frisky and Hallowed Dreams.

Easter Re-cap

2008-03-23T11:29:00.003-04:00

Good morning! I hope everyone's enjoying their peeps (mine are purple!). Hey, can anyone tell me why Ben-Hur is not playing on any TV stations this whole weekend? Last night The Ten Commandments was on two different stations at the exact same time, but no Ben-Hur. How can you not show Ben-Hur at Easter time? I'm probably the least religious person you'd ever find, but I like me a good Charlton Heston epic film. Plus, its main feature is horse racing, how can you go wrong? Sport of kings indeed. Speaking of which, I didn't win anything this weekend, but I don't think that I did half bad with these races (which seemed fairly open to begin with).

Lane's End Stakes

Adriano (A.P. Indy) became the next turf star to successfully transition to polytrack. He was eased at the finish, having had an absolutely lovely trip around the oval. I won't take anything away from this guy, but I don't think he's Derby material. He absolutely flopped on dirt during the Fountain of Youth. Not far behind him in second was Halo Najib (Halo's Image), who pretty much has to give up his Derby hopes after this. And in third was Medjool.

Okay, I've read several recaps of the race, I've read a bunch of bloggers responses to the race and no one, I mean no one, is talking about this horse. Maybe I'm biased because I thought he had a good chance at winning, but I seriously thought he put in a stellar performance in this race. He was 3 wide through the first turn, settled nicely, challenged going into the second turn (perhaps a tad early), was 5 wide (actually 6, given the large gaps between horses) coming around the final turn, was held out in the middle of the track by the horse just inside him (when he was obviously trying to get in and save ground), and still hung on for a game third. Not bad for a mere allowance winner previously. I said I thought he was a horse just about to break out of his shell...mark my words...give him even a moderately clean trip and he will.

That being said, I have serious concerns about his ability to run on real dirt as well, and at this point it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that he could never get the graded earnings necessary for a shot at the Derby. Ah, well.

1. Medjool- 3rd
2. Cannonball- 6th
3. Halo Najib- 2nd

Rushaway Stakes

Ho hum...do we really care about the outcome of this race? I was busy entertaining my parents with cheeses and other delectable foodstuffs while it was on and it thoroughly failed to grab my attention. That's saying something. Turns out Big Glen (Cactus Ridge) took it from favored Miner's Claim (Mineshaft), who himself proved that he could come back from his career two wins at two to put in a good performance today. I have no excuses for my poor performance in handicapping, except for the fact that maybe I just didn't care enough.

1. Tejano's Eliminator- 6th
2. Big Glen- 1st
3. Targe- 5th

Let's just forget this week. And that's soooo easy to do, because next week is gonna be a doozy: the Palm Beach Stakes (g.III), the Bonnie Miss (g.II), the hotly contested Florida Derby (g.I) and, of course, the official return of Curlin in the Dubai World Cup (g.I). Put on your lucky racing caps, the season is about to begin.

Weekend Preview

2008-03-21T10:09:00.015-04:00

In between the storm of high quality races we had last week and the virtual hurricane of races next week (caused in no little amount by the sandstorm which is expected to follow in the wake of Curlin and the Dubai World Cup) is...ummm...this week. Mind you, I welcome the brake, as last week was just too much for me to handle. Point in fact, I think I'll stick to profiling only Derby trail 3-year olds for a while.

Lane's End Stakes

My dear husband once made fun of this race, laughing at how commercial horse racing has become that a clothing store can now sponsor a race. I told him it was the name of a famous breeding farm, which decidedly cut into his fun. Luckily for him, he can continue to rag me about the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (please kill me).

Twelve middle of the road Derby contenders have entered this race. As the Lane's End is now run on Keenland's polytrack, it's attracted several synthetic and grass specialists who would not normally be trying out a major Derby prep. However, the switch to synthetic does not mean that a serious Derby contender could not come from this field; the Lane's End was won last year by Hard Spun who, if he didn't win any of the Classics, certainly made his name heard in all of them...the definition of consistency.

Among the several horses we've seen before on the Derby trail, and making perhaps his last grasp at greatness, is Halo Najib (Halo's Image-Najibe's Wish, by Sword Dance). He was sixth last out in the Fountain of Youth, but prior to that won an OBS Championship race on synthetic track. Point of fact, this horse has never lost a race on synthetics (although the sample size of 2 races is not what one might consider "scientifically significant").

Turf War (Dixie Union-Grass Skirt, by Mr. Prospector) has also made his name known. He was 9th in the Southwest Stakes, never having been a factor. Before that he was part of the Delta Jackpot dead heat which I have continually ignored. If that pedigree looked familiar it's because he's a full brother to 4-year old Grasshopper, who was recently a hard fighting second to Circular Quay in the New Orleans Handicap (g.II), and a winner in the Mineshaft (g.III) before that.

Cannonball (Catenius-No Deadline, by Skywalker...now that's an interesting background) to date has been something of a turf expert (2-0-3 from 5 starts on that surface). He, Why Tonto (Indian Charlie) and Cowboy Cal (Giant's Causeway) have filled the trifecta their last 2 times out. Prior to that, Cannonball was 3rd in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf. Can he make a successful switch to the polytrack?

Then there's a plethora of lesser knowns, trying to make it to the big time. Adriano (A.P. Indy- Gold Canyon, by Mr. Prospector...lovely) was 9th in the Fountain of Youth, but has raced mostly turf and has one 4th on synthetic track. Chitoz has little to recommend him, but seems to like things wet and wild and may be worth watching if the track is off. Duke of de Buqe is a stakes company newbie, but recently won an allowance race impressively for Todd Pletcher (who I'd like to see actually do something for my RttR stable for once). Racecar Rhapsody was 4th in the infamous Delat Jackpot, but broke his maiden over this same polytrack surface. Macho Again has never won above 7 furlongs and appeared thoroughly outclassed by both Z Fortune and Blackberry Road in the Lecomte Stakes.

Medjool's highest class race before this was a 6th place behind Yankee Bravo in the California Derby. Afterwards he was dropped down in class and finally broke his maiden in a mile and 1/16 synthetic race, winning off by 4 and a half. Yes, he was put in a stakes before breaking his maiden on the basis of three places and a show effort in maiden company including the likes of Colonel John, Tres Borrachos, and Coast Guard. Although he'll be facing a tough test here, he looks to me like a horse just about to break out of his shell.

1. Medjool
2. Cannonball
3. Halo Najib

Bad news is I have no horses running again this week. Good news is, they're finally televising the prep races on normal channels!! That means I actually get to watch the Lane's End!! As it's happening!!

Rushaway Stakes

Although not as prestigious as the Lane's End (which is saying something), there is one other stakes race for 3-year old males this week. No really big horses here, but worth a look anways. Big Glen (Cactus Ridge) looks to be the top horse in the field, finishing 4th last to Absolutely Cindy in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes. Cape of Storms (Cape Town) actaully won the last time out in a one mile test over synthetic track. But prior to that he was a dismal 12th in the Smarty Jones Stakes. He'd probably look to be the class of the field, but he's gone through 8 jockeys in 13 starts...that just seems odd to me. I usually assume jockeys to be nothing more than heavy ornamentation on horse's backs, but when a horse can't seem to keep a regular rider, I start to wonder why.

Holidaze (Harlan's Holiday) returns after ghosting to 6th place behind Visionaire in the fogged-out Gotham. The splits on that are hilarious: __ __ __ __ 6th. Miner's Claim (Mineshaft) is undefeated...in 2 starts last year.

Tejano's Eliminator (Tejano Run) could only manage a 5th place the last time out in a small stakes race at 7f over a real dirt track. Before that, he came in first in a 1 mile 1/16 allowance over synthetic track and prior to that broke his maiden going a mile over the same surface. Targe (Monarchos) also performs well on synthetic track, he was second the last time out at 1 mile, and has won on this track before. Ichabod Crane (Jump Start) also looks to be a synthetic monster in the making. He hasn't run since January, but then he took a mile and 70 contest on synthetic track.

1. Tejano's Eliminator
2. Big Glen
3. Targe

In other news

- It appears that Sierra Sunset, winner of last week's Rebel Stakes (g.II) has been sidelined with an ankle injury and is off the Derby trail. Now I don't feel quite so bad about him shutting down Z Fortune.

- Items from several prominent Claiborne sires are being put up at auction on eBay to benefit the Secretariat Foundation. Oh. My. God. I'll have you know I'm not what anyone would call rich, and I almost never go on eBay, but I have a soft spot for Secretariat memorabilia. I'm the proud owner of an authentic 1973 Kentucky Derby mint julep glass (which gets used only by me...and only once a year). I've also been trying for years to get ahold of mint copies of the Newsweek, Time, and Sports Illustrated editions that feature Secretariat on the cover; I was outbid last year for a collection of all three when I couldn't justify going over $200. I'm aware that there's no way I could ever afford any of these pieces, but a girl can dream can't she?

-Okay, this is probably totally off topic, but Ive decided that Pyro is not pretty. Seriously, I was talking about this with my husband and, though he's certainly not what you'd call a connoisseur of horseflesh, he agreed. He's very angular, especially when compared with his sometime running partner Curlin, who is about as well muscled and rounded as could be. It doesn't sway me from my support of him as a runner, though. Clearly, pretty is as pretty does, and some of the ugliest horses have found the roses on their shoulders come Derby day. Still, is anyone else in agreement with me that his looks leave something to be desired?

Photo: Skip Dickstein

Racing in the mitten state (or how I got into horse racing)

2008-03-20T10:27:00.010-04:00

The first thoroughbred race I ever saw was at Erie Downs, a Pennsylvania track which, I believe, is now defunct. I don't remember much about the experience except that I ate in the clubhouse and that my mom let me pick horses out of the program and bet them for me. The first horse I ever bet was #8. It had a cool name, but I don't remember what it was. My grandmother, who was with us, bet on the same horse. My mom thought I'd have a better chance of winning if she put my bet to show. The horse came in. It was a longshot. My grandmother got a whole handful of dough. I got a couple dollars. It's an event I've never quite forgotten (or forgiven).

The following spring my mom sat me down in front of a TV and told me to watch the Belmont Stakes. I was more interested in cartoons, but she said she had heard there might be a Triple Crown winner (whatever that was) that year, and that this was a part of American history in the making that I should observe. So I watched, and I saw two horses battle down the stretch. One the blue-blooded chestnut beauty from the east coast, the other a wild card black stallion with a curiously shapes stripe down his nose from California. Sunday Silence and Easy Goer. It was like something out of Walter Farley novel, though I hadn't been introduced to those books yet. I don't even remember the race all that much, except that Sunday Silence lost, but something that day snapped inside me and I was never quite the same afterwards.

By the following year I was actually reading Walter Farely novels. And the Misty novels. And the Thoroughbred series. And on top of that I had a healthy obsession with historical novels chronicling the lives of famous race horses from the past. Exterminator. Black Gold. Man o' War. These were fairy tales that were actually true. I was thrilled to go to the track again, this time to Thistledown in Ohio, which is still alive, but struggling.

Eventually, my grandparents determined that my horse racing obsession would not go away, and my beloved grandfather, who was an occasional gambler, decided to take me to a track a little closer to home. That track was Detroit Race Course in Michigan. It was a monstrosity of emotionless concrete. There was no clubhouse, and from what one could see of the confetti of tickets littering the grandstand, not much of a cleaning staff. But I wasn't there for the view, I was there for the horses. And there is where I learned that when you stand next to the finish pole, right up against the track fence, you not only hear the horses pounding down the stretch...you feel them. It vibrates through your lower legs as if the concussions were actually coming from within you. Like the sound of a huge base drum in a gymnasium during a pep rally, which vibrates through your chest cavity is if it were actually your own heart pounding and not the instrument.

And that is when I became completely, 100%, without recourse, crazy about this sport

I would visit the track several times over the ensuing years, but being a kid, I had to wait for someone less fascinated with racing than I to take me. That wasn't very often. When I was a senior in high school I had a bad string of depressing events and my parents were kind enough to offer to do something to cheer me up. I didn't think for more than a second, I asked to go to the Breeder's Cup. It was at Woodbine that year, and I couldn't imagine it ever coming closer to the racing wasteland that was Michigan. My parents were skeptical at first, but it turned out to be one of the best vacations we ever had.

The following year I went to college. The year after that, DRC closed down. I wasn't even old enough to bet yet, and I no longer had any place to do so.

The last time I went to a track was Arlington, for the 2002 Breeder's Cup. I dragged along my then fiance, who had never seen a horse race live. We couldn't get anywhere near the paddock, or the finish line, or really the track. But I loved it, and my husband enjoyed the betting. The last time I bet on a race was the Derby Trial in 2005. I was in Vegas for a weekend with friends, and convinced them to spend a few minutes in the sports book room. Sure, there are harness tracks around where I could watch simulcasting, and there's off track betting places here and there. But for me, it's not about the betting. It's about the racing. And there just wasn't any live racing to be had in a several hundred mile radius from my home. Yes, there was Great Lakes Downs on the other side of the state, but that was still a good 3+ hour trip one way, and it closed down last year anyways.

Then I heard about the proposed Pinnacle Race Course, and I rejoiced.

Located just minutes from my best friends' apartment, a 30 minute jaunt from my place of work, an hour's drive from my house, and approximately halfway between my home and that of my parents and grandmother; it was like the answer to a long unspoken prayer. Please let me feel the earth shake again.

Looks like I will. July 18th. It's a Friday. Guess I'll be taking off of work.

In case you were wondering, the latin phrase on the seal of the Michigan Racing Commissioner is our state motto: "If you seek a pleasant peninsula, look about you."

Sometimes you just have to laugh

2008-03-19T09:38:00.005-04:00

And I did. When I opened up the web browser on my husband's computer last Sunday to look up how my chosen horses had done that weekend and saw that War Pass had not only failed to win his 3-year old stakes debut, but had in fact been beaten badly, I laughed. I laughed because all along I'd had an inkling he was 90% hype and 10% value. I laughed because he couldn't even win against the moderate stakes competition he was completely expected to dominate. I laughed because thousands of unimaginative favorite-players just lost their already grossly undervalued tickets.

And then I remembered I had put him in my stable too. So I guess I'm one of those unimaginative favorite-players. Sometimes you laugh because humor is all you've got. That was sort of my whole weekend. I sincerely hope my horseplaying colleague didn't actually take any of my advice, because I know he's got 3 kids in private school and needs the money.

Rebel Stakes

My streak of bad luck began here when one of my up and coming beauties from the RttR first draft completely failed to fire. Z Fortune was a disappointing and unexplainable 5th. The eventual winner of the race was Sierra Sunset, last seen trailing in second behind Denis of Cork in the Southwest Stakes. I have to admit, that that race actually turned me off of Sierra Sunset, who appeared to be fading in the stretch as opposed to dead heat thrid placers Libety Bull and Sacred Journey, who looked like they could pound on for another furlong if necessary. Turns out it was Sacred Journey this time who, after setting some pretty hot fractions, yeilded to Sierra Sunset's stalking presence. King's Silver Son, coming from the maiden ranks, got the place and proved he has a future and Isabull, who I admit I completely ignored after his 7th place in the Southwest, came up for third.

1. Z Fortune- 5th
2. Sacred Journey- last
3. King's Silver Son- 2nd

WinStar Derby

Let me just say first that I knew Liberty Bull had it in him to win this race. I just thought that Poni Colada had it too. Once again, proving I know jack about handicapping, my favorite came in seventh. However, I did retain some of my clout in this one, as maiden winner Screen to Screen also proved that he has a future, coming in second.

1. Poni Colada- 7th
2. Liberty Bull- 1st
3. Screen to Screen- 3rd

Tampa Bay Derby

War Pass.

War Pass, War Pass, War Pass. What happened? Can a little bump at the start really faze you that much? Does having hindquarters churning in front of you and dirt kicked in your face throw your entire world-view out of whack?

Apparently.

Nick Zito is 'mystified'. As far as he can tell there's no physical reason why his unbeaten, 1-20 (or 1-9, depending on where you look...regardless, who would put money on that?) favorite, presumptive Derby star completely failed to fire. Luckily for him, he's still got a barn of impressive Derby hopefuls to fall back on (if necessary). Meanwhile, Big Truck, who was clearly the class of the field once the 900 pound gorilla was removed from the picture, came on for an impressive win. Even his trainer Barclay Tagg seemed surprised; he'd told the jockey to try for second and hope something happened to War Pass.

Is Tagg Irish? Was this perhaps some St. Patty's day luck coming early this year? The world may never know.

1. War Pass- last
2. Big Truck- 1st
3. Dynamic Wayne- 3rd

San Felipe Stakes

And here we have the route race full of sprinters, most of whom I didn't think could get the distance. Whoops, my bad. Looks like most of them handled the stretch out to the mile and 1/16 without too much trouble. Georgie Boy found a second wind in the late stretch to edge out fellow speed demons Gayego and Bob Black Jack. Still, I would't look for a Derby contender to come from the ranks of the top three here. It's still a synthetic track, and they're still primarily quick front runners who have never much been challenged by a late closer.

1. Georgie Boy- 1st (hey, I actually got one!)
2. Indian Sun- 4th (still loving the Indian Charlie)
3. Shediak- 8th

And that concludes our embarrassing recap of the 3-year old male division. Now let's move on to equally embarrassing (but shorter) recaps of all the other weekend races.

Cicada Stakes

Carolyn's Cat took this one wire to wire. No one else even had a chance of catching her after Dill or No Dill (who had previously beaten the winner in the Ruthless Stakes) chucked the bit. Throbbin Heart experienced some bumping at the start that might have thrown her off course, but then so did the eventual winner. If every horse that got bothered a little out of the gate could be automatically excused for losing...well...then we wouldn't all be shaking our heads about War Pass.

1. Throbbin Heart- nowhere
2. Dill Or No Dill- 3rd
3. Ready for Fortune- 2nd

WinStar Oaks

Okay, Sky Mom did win a division of the Martha Washington...whatever the heck that means. She also won here. My favorite, R Charlie's Angel, cut some near suicidal fractions early on, but held on for third. Whither Grace Anatomy this year?

1. R Charlie's Angel- 3rd
2. Grace Anatomy- nowhere
3. Distorted Passion- 4th

Florida Oaks

In her first time around 2 turns, Awesome Chic came in with her first stakes victory. Never out of the money in her 5 lifetime starts, she broke her maiden with a 17.5 length win last year...which is information I could have used last week.

1. Calico Bay- 4th
2. Unfolding Wish- 7th
3. My Baby Baby- 3rd

Hillsborough Stakes

Okay, Lear's Princess is officially 'on notice'. Once again she lost to perpetual rival Dreaming of Anna (who, one must admit, is one heck of a rival), but this time she couldn't even make a good show of it. Couldn't handle the track my butt.

1. Lear's Princess- 4th
2. Dreaming of Anna- 1st
2. Mary Louhana- 3rd

Skip Away Handicap

Gottcha Gold came off of a dismal 9th place finish in the Sunshine Millions to take the race. Longshot (40-1) and leader for most of the race Mr. Umphrey held on for second, while Hunting came in for the show. Seriously, can we just finish this parade of poor picking performances?

1. Frost Giant-4th
2. Dr. Pleasure- 7th
3. Hunting- 3rd

Total points gained in my RttR stable this weekend? Zippo. Better luck next week. Perhaps I should stick to show bets for a while. I had 7 out of 9 of my show bets finish in the money, and some were not exaclty short priced.

Rebel Rouser

2008-03-15T10:17:00.007-04:00

I bet you think I forgot this important Derby prep? Yes, well, you'd be correct. I didn't exactly forget that it existed, nor that it was going on this weekend, but somehow I forgot tho include my analysis in yesterday's preview. So, I decided to go a bit more in depth and make it pretty, to make up for my stupidity.

Rebel Stakes

With Denis of Cork flying off to New York (hah, that rhymes!), the character of this race has completely changed. However, there are 9 horses remaining to play with

Isabull

Isabull is apparently a somewhat popular name for AKC registered bull mastiffs and bull terriers...which I found when trying to get a good picture of him. He's on the left in the picture, shown being just beaten out by his close relation Liberty Bull in the inaugural Smarty Jones Stakes. By Holy Bull out of the Miswaki mare Miss Isadora, he could only manage a 6th place in his last time out in the Southwest Stakes (g.III). He's shown he's got some run in him, but in all honesty, he hasn't actually won anything since breaking his maiden last year.

Photo: Coady Photography

Sierra Sunset

Though thoroughly beaten by Denis of Cork as the place horse in the Southwest Stakes, Sierra Sunset (Bertrando-Toot Sweet, by Pirate's Bounty) showed he has some ability. The annoying thing is how long it's taken him to prove it. This will be the 3-year old's 11th lifetime start, which is a considerable number in this day and age. I mean, look at Pyro, who's likely to be stuck in the breeding shed before his 4-year old season and may never see 10 starts in his life. However, with those ten previous starts he's had, Sierra Sunset has only managed a lifetime record of 3-3-1. Still impressive, since the majority of his races were in stakes company. Personally, though, I just don't think he'll make it today.

Stone Bird

This horse is being touted as D. Wayne Lukas' last chance at the Derby this year. I was, at one time, a huge fan of Lukas. I actually took a covert photo of him in the paddock of the 1996 Breeder's Cup, and it's sad to see how the mighty have fallen. However, I wouldn't count him out yet. He's got a few good years left in him still. Meanwhile, Stone Bird (Grindstone-Birdcage, by Kris S.) won a one mile race in the OBS championships by an impressive 5 and a half lengths. Prior to that, he was a maiden winner of little distinction, but a nice pedigree.

Sacred Journey

Before his last trip in the Southwest Stakes I questioned whether Sacred Journey (Unbridled's Song-Thiscatsforcary, by Storm Cat) could go the distance. Prior to that he was just an allowance winner at 6 furlongs. He sort of proved himself in that matter by dead heating for third place with Liberty Bull. If one takes into account the fact that the race was his first around two turns and his first time in stakes company, the poor thing was dealing with several new variables he'd never seen before, and still acquitted himself well. I said after that race that he was a horse to watch, I meant it.

Golden Yank

Golden Yank (Yankee Gentlemen-Golden Charm, by Strike the Gold) was unbeaten in two minor stakes races at a mile before taking third in the mile and 1/16 Delta Jackpot. I may have mentioned that race previously, and my complete lack of interest in the dead heat winners thereof, Z Humor and Turf War. I've been proven correct about those two, as they've turned up less than impressive following their mutual victory. Golden Yank, who was only a neck behind the two in a blanket finish, was clearly close on their heels. But if they couldn't get it done in later races, why would I assume he'd be any better?

He's Eze

Great, here's another silly name, at least this colt can blame his dam. He's Eze (Silver Deputy-Eze, by Williamstown) has not been performing up to the potential his 2-year old season might have suggested. He was fifth in the Southwest Stakes, fourth in the Lecomte, and hasn't really shown any improvement.

King's Silver Son

Now here's a horse I'd heard nothing about until this week, and one may wonder why. By Mizzen Mast out of River Dyna by Dynaformer, this colt is only a maiden winner at a mile. He won his first race after being a bridesmaid 5 times, finishing 4th once and second 4 times in succession. That's the definition of consistent, even if it's only in middling company. Although he's never seen anything like stakes company, he's had a good long layoff since his win and has been training well. He posted a bullet earlier in the month and Steve Asmussen would not just put a former plodder into this type of quality stakes without good reason.

Anak Nakal

I'm sure I've profiled this guy before. And I'm also sure I've never picked him. I'm not entirely sure why I don't like him; by Victory Gallop out of Misk by Quiet American, his pedigree is nice for the Derby. He was badly beaten in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but that was a pretty odd race and I'd generally be willing to throw it out. Before that he was first and second in his two stakes tries at two. I don't know, he just completely fails to spark my interest.

Photo: EquiSportPhotos.com

Z Fortune

A somewhat surprised looking second his last time out in Pyro's dynamic Risen Star (g.III), this colt was clearly the best of the remainder that day. Prior to that he took the Lecomte Stakes (g.III) and won two lower class races. Being undefeated but for a second place to Pyro, he's inserted himself as the likely third favorite in everybody's Derby fantasy stables. Denis of Cork would have given him a run for his money, but Denis just isn't up for a challenge today. Even then, I would have given the edge to Z Fortune. By Distorted Humor out of the A.P. Indy mare Offtheoldblock, he's bred to run all day. And another thing, the pretty little grey puts me in mind of the late Winning Colors; their body types and running styles are completely different, of course, but the Jackson Pollack splash of white across the face is what does it

Photo: Vanessa Ng

1. Z Fortune
2. Sacred Journey
3. King's Silver Son

Weekend Preview

2008-03-13T12:28:00.012-04:00

So, my co-worker who actually bets on horses, and who I've been asking again and again all spring "Hey, did you see that last race!" finally came into my office to talk horses. Apparently, he's in the market for tips and likes that I waste my time looking up tons of horse related trivia so that he doesn't have to. I hope I can give him some good advice, becuase then at least I'll be doing someone monetary good (or not, as the case may be). Regardless, his enthusiasm gave me a good reason to start analyzing all the weekend's premier races a bit early this week.

San Felipe Stakes

For a 1 mile and 1/16 race we sure seem to have a lot of horses here that have never gone two turns. That, actually, makes my decisions a little easier. It eliminates Gayego, Go for Cover and Bob Black Jack. I saw Bob's world record setting move during Sunshine Millions Day (thanks TiVo!), and I was never less impressed by a record setter. That track was criminally fast. I'm amazed he got out of that race with his sesamoids intact. Regardless, I don't think he's built to go a mile, let alone the longer distances required by the spring classics. Southwest was 3rd in his last start (on turf) and was 8th behind Yankee Bravo before that. He hasn't won since October, and I don't look for him to do so here.

Meanwhile, Georgie Boy (Tribal Rule-Ippodamia, by Peterhof) has never gone beyond 7 furlongs, but he's got a much more relaxed manner that makes it look like he could go farther. Plus, those last 2 stakes at 7f, he's won handily. Indian Sun (Indian Charlie-Unequivocal, by Alleged) is worth a look if only because of the amazing streak I've been having recently with his sire. Last out he won a mile allowance race (notably on the turf), and as such is one of the field's few two turn horses. Prior to that he was 4th in the Robert B. Lewis and 2nd behind El Gato Malo in the San Rafael. Shediak (Selkirk) was one of France's top 2-year olds last year. They must have seen something in him to bring him to the States. He hasn't raced in a looooong time, but he's won up to 7.5 furlongs previously, and he's got Julien Leparoux (who knows how to handle a quality horse from the continent) on his back.

I seriously could not find any information on the other contenders.

1. Georgie Boy
2. Indian Sun
3. Shediak

WinStar Derby

This race is ungraded (an ungraded $600,000 purse race, what the heck?!) and the talent which has showed up to it is hovering just around that non-level. As such, don't go expecting your Derby favorite to come out of this field. That being said, there are a couple of hard headed horses in here who look like they can maybe get it done.

Poni Colada (Volponi-Coconut Willamina, by Pleasant Colony), a cutesy named local favorite won his last time out over this track by 8 lenghts. The extra 1/16 of a mile doesn't look to disturb him either. His major knock is that he was 6th in the Smarty Jones Stakes, but I'm willing to throw that performance out. Ablaze With Spirit's (American Spirit) main claim to fame is being Poni Colada's lesser regarded stablemate (although he also won the Jim Orbit Stakes at a mile recently). Cape Time and Banker's Way were second and third respectively to Poni Colada in his Borderland Derby romp.

A winner over Poni Colada in the Smarty Jones Stakes was Liberty Bull (Holy Bull), who I was briefly fond of because I like the way he hunkered down and fought for victory (and possibly because of the similarity between his name and that of a horse I happen to own a part of...no, not a race horse...I wish). Though I was not completely turned off of him following his dead heat third place effort in the Southwest Stakes, I certainly wasn't impressed.

Screen to Screen is a maiden winner, and normally I would pay him no more heed than he deserved. But he was nosed out for first in his last race, an allowance at 1 mile and 1/16, and given the ho-hum quality of the rest of the field, I've a mind to take a chance on his long price. Winsome Charm (Silver Charm) was second last out to Bob Black Jack's world record performance, which is still not something to shout about in a route race.

1. Poni Colada
2. Liberty Bull
3. Screen to Screen

Tampa Bay Derby

Ah, you were waiting for this profile weren't you? Well, so was I. And I think we've all been waiting for the top horse in the field to finally be making his appearance. Enter War Pass, stage left.

This from The Blood Horse this morning:

Handicappers who take on the $300,000 Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III) will probably
find their challenge not in choosing a winner, but in selecting the order of
finish behind Robert LaPenta’s War Pass.

I don't think I could have said it better myself. Except that I would't ever say something like that. Call it a foolish prejudice. Call it intentional blindness. Tell me I'm a fool and a horrible handicapper to boot. I hate favorites. I hate favorites at three who essentially haven't raced since their 2-year old season (a walkover allowance race does not count!). I hate classic speed horses in route races. Well, that's not true. I love speed horses. Nothing gets my heart pumping better than a beautifully muscled thoroughbred going all out for the turn, ears pinned, jock low on his neck. I have this old video of Native Diver that shows him in a morning workout...it's enough to make one cry at the beauty of it...but I'm getting off topic. The point is that I just cannot, for the life of me, put my heart and soul on a speed-demon wonder-horse 2-year old making what amounts to his firt real 3-year old start. I felt the same way about Street Sense last year. Oh, I had him in my stable. Everybody did! But he was my least favorite horse on the trail. I couldn't have cared less about him, and I still feel that way.

Mind you, Street Sense won the Derby last year, so that just goes to show you what silly things prejudices are.

War Pass (Cherokee Run-Vue, by Mr. Prospector) has done everything anyone has ever asked of him. He's won on good ground and slop. He's won from 6f to a mile and 1/16. He's won against the best horses of his generation: Pyro, Z Humor, Kodiak Kowboy (also making his comeback this weekend). He's trained sharply for this contest. He's never let anyhorse put a nostril in front of his. His past performace chart shows a succession of one's - first at the start, first at the half, the three-quarters, the finish. Perhaps Pyro could catch him if given another chance. Perhaps Bob Black Jack would rabbit him to exhaustion. Visionaire, Yankee Bravo, and Z Fortune have all shown promise and might be a concern. Heck, Indian Blessing, were she 100%, might show him her haunches.

And none of those horses are in this race. In fact, everyone has been so terrified of War Pass that the Tampa Bay Derby is all but a void. A step up from the allowance of two weeks ago? Hardly.

Atoned (Repent-Amidst, by Icecapade) hasn't raced since since November (where he was a close second behind Court Vision in the Remsen (g.II)) and hasn't won since last August. Big Truck (Hook and Ladder-Just a Ginny, by Go For Gin) was a hard closing second behind Fierce Wind in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. He was 4th behind Court Vision and Atoned in the Remsen. Dynamic Wayne (Eltish) won a mile and 1/16 allowance over this track and followed it up with a 4th place in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Gentlement James was 2nd in the Pasco Stakes (at 7 furlongs) back in January. None of the remainder have ever done anything in stakes company, or since breaking their maidens.

So, here I am. Forced to play a favorite against my will. Sigh.

1. War Pass

2. Big Truck

3. Dynamic Wayne

Sunland Park Oaks

And here we find all the fillies too chicken to go up against Indian Blessing and Proud Spell. But really, who can blame them. R Charlie's Angel (Indian Charlie-Yes Ma'am, by Cormorant) should get my nod if only because her sire's been so good to me recently (yes, that is getting a tad old). To add to this she recently won the Island Fashion Stakes at a mile (over Snake Proof, another member of this field), and before that broke her maiden in an impressive 5.5 lengths win.

Meanwhile Grace Anatomy (Aldebaran-Propriety, by Storm Cat), while not exactly performing as she did last year, finishing a disappointing 5th in the Las Virgenes (g.I) last month at a mile and 2nd in the 1 mile and 1/16 San Ysabel in January, is still something to look at. Distorted Passion was second in a 1 mile allowance in January and has some nice breeding about her. Despite what The Blood Horse would have me believe per their article yesterday, Sky Mom did not win the Martha Washington Stakes.

1. R Charlie's Angel

2. Grace Anatomy

3. Distorted Passion

Florida Oaks

And on the undercard of War Pass's presumptive romp, we have yet more fillies. Elusive Lady was eased after her last attempt in the 6.5f Old Hat Stakes (g.III), which has been her only start this year. Calico Bay recently won a mile and 1/16 race in the OBS Championship by 8 lengths. Awesome Chic and Unfolding Wish are both trying a route for the first time. Unfolding Wish is 3 for 4 lifetime, and making her first start this year. My Baby Baby, No Use Denying and Dee's Rose were second, third and fourth respectively, in a one mile Suncoast Stakes that was won by a monster (not here today) who set a track record.

1. Calico Bay

2. Unfolding Wish

3. My Baby Baby

Hillsborough Stakes

I backed Lear's Princess (Lear Fan- Pretty City, by Carson City) over Dreaming of Anna (Rahy-Justenuffheart, by Broad Brush) in the Endeavour Stakes a couple weeks back, and it turned out to be a poor decision. Mind you, my choice lost by only the barest of margins to the former juvenile champion filly. It's true, Dreaming of Anna has appeared all but unbeatable on turf, but again, I'm going to back her rival. Perhaps I just want to be contrary.

1. Lear's Princess

2. Dreaming of Anna

2. Mary Louhana

Cicada Stakes

I honestly don't know much of anything about the horses in this race, so instead I'll tell you what I do know about Cicada (Bryan G.-Satsuma, by Bossuet). She was a champion race mare for the Meadow Stud in the 1960's, winning, amongst other fine races, the Kentucky Oaks. Being from the Meadow's fine line of blue hen mares (descending from their foundation mare Hildene) and being a stakes winner herself, she was sent to the prime stallion that they could afford at the conclusion of her career. As such, she became part of the Meadow Stud's infamous "coin flip" deal with Ogden Phipps, whereby the Chenery's would send two top quality mares to the Phipp's top stallion Bold Ruler for two years running, and the owning parties would then flip to determine who got first choice of the ensuing offspring. A bit of a tangle, as breeding arrangements go, but not completely unheard of. It was a great way for the Phippses, who didn't have too many quality mares of their own, to get fine babies out of their champion and multiple-time leading sire, Bold Ruler. The system would, however, eventually fail them.

Cicada was sent to Bold Ruler in the spring of 1969 as part of the coin flip deal, however, she failed to conceive. The other horse sent that year was another blue hen Meadow mare named Somethingroyal. Somethingroyal had also been sent to Bold Ruler the year before, and produced an uninspiring filly from him that spring. She would, of course, produce a chestnut foal from him the following season. The Phippses won the coin toss in 1969, and chose the unispiring Somethingroyal filly (the Meadow Stud, by default got a Bold Ruler-Hasty Matelda colt named Rising River). However, by the rules of the game, the Meadow Stud came into possession of Somethingroyal's chestnut colt the following year, as the Phippses were required to automatically select Cicada's non-existent get.

Thus, does Cicada fit into one of the most famous stories from American horse racing history.

1. Throbbin Heart

2. Dill Or No Dill

3. Ready for Fortune

Okay, I admit I had to look up her pedigree info, but the rest I knew.

Skip Away Handicap

I won't say much about the older boys, but I've always been something of a fan of Frost Giant (Giant's Causeway) and I'd like to see him make a triumphant retun here.

1. Frost Giant

2. Hunting

3. Dr. Pleasure

In other news

- It appears that Kingmambo (Mr. Prospector-Miesque, by Nureyev) is back on stud duty. This pleases me, because I think he is one of the most consistent sires out there, and unfortunately is sometimes overlooked in the States because of his penchant for getting grass horses. Plus, I get a certain perverse joy from seeing stallions perform as they should, both on the track and in the shed. My dear husband will never forget the Derby morning (I'd been up watching the TV coverage since 9am) when I shouted for him to come in to the family room. He raced in to see what was the matter. "Look," I said, pointing to the screen with joy, "A Storm Cat cover!"

- Trouble appears to be brewing around Thistledown Racecourse in Cleveland, Ohio. Apparently, the track can't come to an agreement with the state regarding how many days of live racing to host in the coming year. I think the state needs to get a grip here. Do they really imagine that Thistledown wouldn't keep itself open more days if it was at all possible? Do they not understand that horse racing, though dear my heart and the hearts of any who would bother to read this blog, is in essence a niche sport? That we're doing our best to drag in the crowds, but sometimes it's just not possible? Thistledown was the 2nd track I ever visited, and as such it has a special place in my heart. I would hate to see it closed for a simple failure to negotiate.

Now what's that supposed to mean?

2008-03-12T11:10:00.003-04:00

Buried towards the bottom of my morning thoroughbred news was the nuggest that Denis of Cork (Harlan's Holiday-Unbridled Girl, by Unbridled), three for three lifetime after his solid Southwest Stakes (g.III) win, will not be going on to perform in the Rebel Stakes (g.III). Rather, he'll be pointed at either the Wood Memorial (g.I) or the Illinois Derby (g.II). My question is...why?

Usually, when a trainer decides to uproot his three year old in the middle of the Derby prep season and ship them to an entirely different track, there's a pretty good reason. Although they generally take it well, no horse likes being bounced around in a trailer for hours without good reason. In fact, there's usually only 2 reasons a trainer would do this: (1) to get his horse used to a different type of track (which these days means switching from synthetics to a true dirt track similar to Churchill's) or (2) they're looking for lesser competition in order to get their horse a win (and maybe some graded earnings). As the Rebel would be run on good old fashioned dirt, one would assume that the second option was the one appealing to Denis' trainer. Hey, it worked well for Visionaire!

And certainly, Arkansas is a hotbed of talent. It's become a traitional route to the Derby recently, and the Rebel Stakes last year was won by Curlin himself. This year, Z Fortune will likely be there, trying to follow up his strong 2nd place performance to Pyro in the Risen Star. Then there's the Bull Twins, both of whom Denis handily beat in the Southwest Stakes. Also Sierra Sunset, who was second to Denis of Cork in the Southwest and Sacred Journey who dead heated for 3rd. Who else? Stone Bird, an impressive allowance winner and Lukas trainee? Anyone else? Anyone? Beuler?

Doesn't look like there's a whole lot going on in Arkansas now that Denis has left the building. Certainly nothing like what they're facing down in Florida.

And for comparison, who is Denis likely to face in the Wood? Well, possibly Visionaire, if his connections don't decide to give him a layoff. Giant Moon is almost a lock for this race, and he'll be looking for some redemption after his embarrasment in the slop during the Gotham. Also the rapidly improving Texas Wildcatter, the surprisingly not bad Larry's Revenge, the still hanging in there Roman Emperor...and perhaps Ling Ling Qi, Holidaze, Southern Terminus, or Laysh Laysh Laysh (the performances and/or scratching of which in the Gotham may also have been caused by the off track). Last week New York may have been the weak state, not so now. And oh yeah, War Pass is eyeing the Wood as well.

As for Illinois, there doesn't look to be too much competition there, but it appears to be a better fit for Denis' floundering stablemate Blackberry Road. So he'll likely be going in the Wood...but I still don't know why.

There is, of course another possibility. If Denis of Cork goes for the Wood he's likely to have only 2 starts at 3 before the Derby. His trainers have noted as much, saying that he's not a big horse who can really take a heavy schedule. That's the sort of comment I don't like to hear from trainers. Can the Derby be won off 4 lifetime starts (and only 2 at age three)? Yes, it's been done. But I personally don't consider it preferable. It seems to be taking uneccessary chances.

In other words, it's seems like something you do if your horse doesn't come out of his last race wolfing down his feed. If he's just a little off. If you think he really needs (not just would like, but physicially needs) an extra couple weeks of rest. I took a look at the reports after the Southwest, and there's no indication from the trainer that Denis came out of it in anything but fine form. However, there's also none of the usual "He looks great!" and "He's eager to get back on the track!" comments like you usually see either. Just vague references to the trainer's intentions to keep him in Arkansas. Suspicious. Not very, just enough to fill me with a nagging unease.

And right after I added him to my stable. Perfect.

Eating Crow

2008-03-10T10:50:00.006-04:00

This weekend, I went with several friends to a Brazilian steakhouse and was visited time and again by waiters carrying steaming skewers full of various and sundry meats. Little did I know that crow was on the menu. Towards the end of the protein filled evening, I mentioned that I had several horses running that afternoon and that I would like to know how the Gotham had gone. This prompted one of my friends to whip out his brand spankin' new iPod touch and link up to the internet. It was thus I got the majority of my racing news for the weekend.

El Camino Real Derby

I start with this race not because I was particularly impressed with the finish, and not because I think the winner has any real chance at the Derby this year, but becuase I am forced by the outcome to make an apology. Autism Awareness, I apologize for making fun of your name. Mind you, I still don't think it's a terribly good name, nor do I think it's a particularly good way to raise awareness of autism, but what can I say? Paying $126 to win, Autism Awareness (Tannersmyman) came in first a length and a half in front of Nikki'sgoldensteed (who was apparently jumping shadows on the curve and having trouble settling down), with Tres Borrachos in third. I realized I should start posting my picks from earlier in the week with how the horses actually finished up:

1. Nikki'sgoldentsteed- 2nd
2. Coast Guard- Waaaay back
3. Tres Borrachos- 3rd

And in case you were wondering, Autism Awareness has a full sister named Cure Autism.

Gotham Stakes

And in another embarrasing performance of handicapping, we have the Gotham. In weather so foggy that most of the race could not be seen, and over a sloppy track, Visionaire (Grand Slam) came home to nose out Texas Wildcatter in the final strides. Now, I know what you're thinking. How can you complain when one of your stable horses won? Well, that's because I had three (yes 3!) horses in the race. Where were my other 2 horses? My New York specialists? The only comfort I have is that the off track might have affected their chances (goodness, I hope that's what was wrong). Apparently, Visionaire is heading back to Florida to train, but given Michael Matz's clearly ingenious move to slip his prime Derby prospect out of Pyro-land, he's likely to return to NY to race in the Wood Memorial (g.I). Saratoga Russell set nice fractions even given the slop, and will hopefully be put back into some sprints where he can shine.

1. Giant Moon- Last
2. Visionaire- First
3. Roman Emperor- 4th
4. Texas Wildcatter- 2nd
Photo: Coglianese Photos

Fair Ground Oaks

Next on the list is the Fair Ground Oaks (g.II), and would you believe it, I called the trifecta! Which is, of course, a terribly difficult thing to do in a field of four. However, I was 100%, absolutely, without a doubt wrong about Indian Blessing winning it. The poor girl had to taste defeat for the first time in her life, and to her long time rival Proud Spell (Proud Citizen-Pacific Spell, by Langfur). Bob Baffert, of course, knew his filly had it in her all along. Indian Blessing, apparently, failed to rate on the backstretch and fought her rider, tiring herself out before the end. Guess she's still got some learnin' to do.

1. Indian Blessing- 2nd
2. Proud Spell- 1st
3. Acacia- 3rd

Duncan F. Kenner Stakes

Surprising pretty much no one (except those who purposely didn't pick him because they thought they were already backing too many favorites as it was), Euroears won the Duncan F. Kenner. Mind you, I can't seem to find much other info on it. Oh, and is Euroears supposed to be a Disneyland Paris reference of some sort? It is kind of a funny name.

New Orleans Handicap

And rounding out the field of bad weekend picks, Circular Quay (Thunder Gulch) stalked the pace, circled 3-wide, and fought Grasshopper to a place in the stretch. I never liked Circular Quay much. I still don't. Especially now that he's made such a fool out of me. None (none!) of my horses were even in the money. Even the game old Brass Hat was "never a factor", coming in 4th.

Louisiana Derby

Finally, I did something right. But it's not all about me. In fact, it's not about me at all. It's about the horses, and in this case one horse in particular. That horse being Pyro. Pyro who had a bunch of people questioning whether his last to first Risen Star finish was just a fluke. People questioning whether the slow pace of that former race had just made everything too easy and set him up for a perfect trip. People whose questions have now, hopefully, been answered.

Pyro (Pulpit-Wild Vision, by Wild Again) is for real.

I had to watch the replay as soon as I heard abut the outcome, so I took over my friend's computer. The early fractions were (to my mind anyways) still slow, set by My Pal Charlie (Indian Charlie), who aquitted himself well in his first stakes race. Instead of placing himself dead last, as previously, Pyro arranged himself comfortably in mid-pack. He then looked to be almost caught behind horses in the early stretch, but managed to find a hole and plow through it. He won by 3 lengths...certainly not winning with a Curlin sense of easyness, but making a statement nonetheless. Yankee Bravo proved that he can switch to real dirt and that he has some class. As I'm now allowed to add three new horses to my RTTR stable, he's got himself a stall.

1. Pyro- 1st
2. Yankee Bravo- 3rd
3. My Pal Charlie- 2nd

There is, however, one question remaining, and it's one we'll all likely be pondering until the first Saturday in May. Who's the better horse, War Pass or Pyro? Will War Pass tire out at the longer distances? Will Pyro be able to spring a patented come from behind, field looping move to catch up to the blazing speedster? Will, as is equally likely at this point, they both end up with metaphorical egg (and non-metaphorical mud) on their faces as some other talented colt leaves them in his tracks. I, for one, am on pins and needles.

Oh, and here's a funny story. So, after I hijacked my friends' computer and forced them to watch this race they asked me how much I had won. I blinked at them. What, me put money down? Where? With what time? Don't get me wrong, it's not that I'm against gambling, I just don't myself care all that much for the betting. To me it's all about the horses. So, I checked out the stats for this race and noted that, had I actually taken the time out to place a $6 boxed trifecta bet at some off-track betting spot, I would have brought home $250. Everyone encouraged me to actually put my money where my mouth was. I'm still skeptical (see above horrid failures).

Photo: Alexander Barkoff

Mervyn Muniz Jr. Memorial Handicap

Hah! I called Proudinsky (Slivano-Proudeyes, by Dashing Blade) in this one too. Thus have I redeemed myself with older males on turf (okay, not really).

In other news

- Hystericalady (Distorted Humor-Sacramentada, by Northair.), who I've been a fan of ever since last year when she posted a blazing work that made me blink and question whether I was seeing things, won the Azeri Stakes. It was her first win in a while, and her first time on dirt for a while. One might hope her connections would keep her there.

Yet more weekend previews

2008-03-07T13:59:00.006-05:00

I've been stuck at a fascinating seminar (those were sarcastic italics, in case you couldn't figure it out) the past two days and haven't been able to feed my addiction.

Fair Grounds Oaks

There are all of 4 horses to choose from in this race. Is it even worth calling a trifecta? Probably not.

Pretty much everyone is in agreement that champion Indian Blessing (Indian Charlie-Shameful, by Flying Chevron) is a lock to remain undefeated. So far she's won on regular dirt and synthetic surface, she's won in sprints and has stretched out to the 1 mile 1/16 distance of this race previously. She's performed on fast and off tracks. She's faced stakes competition at every asking since she broke her maiden. She's defeated the talented Proud Spell twice. The damn filly just won't let anyone get a nose in front of her. In all honesty, what could go wrong? She could break down. She could get tired. She could run out of luck.

But most likely she'll win.

Her premier competition in the race is Proud Spell (Proud Citizen-Pacific Spell, by Langfur). Proud Spell has also performed well in sprints and routes, in on and off tracks, in quality fields. In fact, the only thing that has ever appeared to stand in the way of Proud Spell's total domination of her contemporaries is Indian Blessing.

The media is playing this up as a match race between the two, and that's always a worry. Match races rarely ever turn out to be what everyone thinks they will be. But the field is so small, and the remaining two horses such non-comparable competition, one could hardly imagine the race turning out any differently. Acacia (Cherokee Run-Checkered Flag, by A.P. Indy) has a late February maiden win to her name (in five starts). Meanwhile, Wisconsin Lady (Stephen Got Even-Tomisue's Pleasure, by Seeking the Gold) was second in allowance company her last out, third and fifth before that, and won her maiden race last November. Do you hear that noise? That's two trainers rubbing their hands together in anticipation of 3rd place money.

Proud Spell's trainer has stated that he's going to change tactics with his charge this time, and send her at Indian Blessing sooner. He also stated that, if he had a rabbit to use, he would. It seems to me a poor choice to announce one's intentions to the world, but I guess he feels comfortable having the only filly who can manage even to sweat in Indian Blessing's shadow. He knows that eventually, the champion will slip up. She'll run out of luck. And then he'll be able to say he knew his horse had it in her from the start.

1. Indian Blessing
2. Proud Spell
3. Acacia

I seriously feel dirty even for making these picks. Let's move on to the old men, shall we?

As others have pointed out, it's highly unlikely that all of the five presumptive favorites from this week's races, despite their recent domination, will come in first. I've now chosen three favorites in Pyro, Giant Moon and Indian Blessing. Likely, one of these three will fall, making me look silly. However, I'll compensate a little for my non-originality, by playing up some high priced horses in the following races.

Duncan F. Kenner Stakes

There's quite a bit of speed in this race, lead, of course, by the undefeated Euroears. Someone (likely, several someones) will challenge him today. And with the extra furlong, he just might get beat. Sempahore Man (Formal Gold) is coming off a nice win and has been posting bullets. Same with Noonmark. But here again is speed and more speed.

Truelyonbroadway (Yes It's True) has shown he can rate and, though he lost to Euroears last out, it was his first time on turf and he was run quite wide. Roi Maudit (Elusive Quality) can close and, though he lost to Noonmark last out, it was on a sloppy track he didn't seem to relish. King of the Roxy (Littlexpectations) was my Derby second choice last year. I liked his style. He's been off recuperating since August, and he didn't look all that great before his layoff. But I still have a soft spot for the old guy.

1. Truelyonbroadway
2. Semaphore Man
3. Euroears

New Orleans Handicap

I feel better betting against Grasshopper than I do betting against any of this weekend's other favorties. I think he's hit his apogee and has nowhere else to go but back down in the ranks. Meanwhile, Brass Hat recently finished 4th in a Donn full of class. He's a game old boy. I was never much of a fan of Circular Quay. Encaustic looks to be scratched. Silver Lord and Magna Graduate both looked good following Grasshopper in the Mineshaft, and there's nothing to suggest they won't put in a similar performance in this race.

1. Brass Hat
2. Silver Lord
3. Magna Graduate

Mervyn Muniz Jr. Memorial Handicap

Given my recent "luck" with turf males, I'm pretty much staying out of this one. But I do kinda like Proudinsky.

You may have noticed

2008-03-05T19:48:00.003-05:00

Even though I promised to profile the 3-year old boys I left a not insignificant Derby prep off of my list earlier today. The El Camino Real Derby (g.III). That's because I don't have anyone running in it. Also, I do have to work sometimes and I regretfully had to log off in order to look up information on redemption dates for commercial property. It's days like this when I hate being a lawyer. Anyways, here's my call for the final little boy's race of the weekend:

El Camino Real Derby

The El Camino Real is a lesson in poor horse naming. No, I'm serious. People have been giving race horses funky names pretty much since the dawn of domestication. And though some of these names have been...less than respectable (Pot-8-O's comes to mind)...generally, by now, people know how to name a racehorse. No so in this race. You'd think finding a good horse name would be easier with the magic of the internet to help people along; that you shouldn't be getting too many 6th choice "why on the earth didn't the Jockey Club okay that one" names (Secretariat comes to mind). But then, who am I to talk. I was always going to give the hypothetical offspring of my beloved riding mare Silbaska and the farm's premier stallion, Dru, the name Druzil...which was also the name of an imp in a not particularly well written book I read once. Perhaps we should focus on the racing.

Heading up this field of ten is Coast Guard, who's removal from the Sham Stakes I lamented last week. Second last out to Crown of Thorns in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, he had some heat and his connections decided to take it easy and wait another week. They also might have been eyeing the somewhat less deep field of the El Camino as a place where their golden boy could shine.

Nikki'sgoldensteed (Formal Gold- Dawn of Promise, by Tank's Prospect), has won two in a row; one of which was a stakes (though admittedly minor) at this same distance. Here we have the first of the naming offenders; who breaks two cardinal rules by both consisting of a phrase of words mushed together, and containing punctuation. The occasional Man o' War we can take, this, however, is a bit much. None of that, of course, changes the fact that this horse likes to go to the front and stay there. There's been a dearth of good speed horses on the Derby trail this year (well, aside from the all but idle War Pass), and this one deserves a look.

Bamaha Breeze is a local favorite who is undefeated in three 6 furlong starts. We'll see whether he can step up to stakes company and keep the home fires burning through 2 turns. All signs point to probably not. And not to belabor the point, but this horse's name runs perilously close to mimicking that of a somewhat popular, Caribbean cooking themed restaurant. That or a colorful Applebee's tropical drink. Perhaps something that Behindatthebar would whip up for you (yes, that sound you heard through the internets was my eyes rolling).

Tres Borrachos hasn't been doing all that well for himself recently, but at least he's been trying in stakes company. Last out he was 4th behind Yankee Bravo, and he's been working well. A sleeper perhaps? At least his name doesn't suck. Several commentators have been playing up Pleasure Grounds, who has been slowly making his way up the quality scale. He'd be worth a second look, if he weren't such a confirmed speed horse. As it is, he's going to run into Nikki'sgoldensteed, and I think the latter will win that pissing contest.

It is, however, Autism Awareness who is the true offender in the naming raffle. Seriously, even if this horse were clearly the class of the field, I could never vote for him. One imagines him circling in the paddock, his head low with shame as the other horses in the race laugh at him behind their bridles. In A Year At The Races, noted horse racing author Jane Smiley recounts her discussions with an alleged "horse psychic" who tells her that her budding turf horse Hornblower wants to be called Wowie, because otherwise the other horses won't respect him. Do I believe this sort of nonsense? Of course not. But I believe that a name can be a very powerful thing.

1. Nikki'sgoldensteed
2. Coast Guard
3. Tres Borrachos

My cup runneth over

2008-03-05T10:10:00.010-05:00

Coming off of last week's pointless (for me anyways) Derby preps, I have no less than 4 horses running this weekend. Luckily, they're not all running against each other. Not only that, but we get the return of Oaks favorite Indian Blessing in the Louisiana Derby undercard. Regardless, it promises to be an exciting weekend. I'll preview the ladies and the older horses later in the week, right now, let's focus on the boys...the 3-year old boys.

Louisiana Derby

The major question that will be answered by the running of this race is whether or not Pyro (Pulpit-Wild Vision, by Wild Again) is just a one trick pony. Was that eye popping last to first move at the head of the Risen Star's stretch for real? Was the plodding pace to blame for the finish? Was every other horse just caught completely off guard, or was Pyro just that good? We've seen quite a few tremendous closing drives in recent Derby preps, but those all came on the unpredictable polytrack. What does it mean for Pyro to have done the same, but on real dirt? Can the budding superstar lather, rinse, repeat his way to a win in LA? Is Elvis still alive and flipping burgers at a fast food joint, humming Love Me Tender? Some questions are never meant to be answered. Luckily, questions about Pyro will, most assuredly, be resolved this weekend. Meanwhile, he's in my stable and I'm sticking to him. It only remains to choose his followers. Z Fortune (runner up in the Risen Star) is strangely absent from this group, so I'll have to dig deep.

J Be K (Silver Deputy-Major Wager, by Valid Wager) is undefeated, a claim that's getting rarer and rarer as the 3-year old season progresses. However, he's undefeated in 2 starts, and neither longer than 6 furlongs. Sure, the wins were impressive (he's got a combined winning margin of 12.5 lengths and a track record to his name). And prior rider Shaun Bridmohan dropped him like a rock to ride Pyro. Let's take that as professional disassociation from a talented sprinter being wedged into a route race. Unbridled Vicar (Vicar-Unafordable, by Unbridled) was fourth behind Pyro in the Risen Star and, though he's been wonderfully consistent throughout his career, hasn't won anything since September 2007.

Tale of Ekati (Tale of the Cat-Silence Beauty, by Sunday Silence) was a promising 2-year old last year and finished 4th behind War Pass, Pyro and Kodiak Kowboy in the muddy Breeder's Cup Juvenile. A lot has been written about his chances, but it's hard to escape the fact that it's rather late in the season for him to be making his 3-year old debut...that is, if he wants to run in the Derby. His one time out previously around two turns, he never really had a chance in the slop, and he's been posting bullet works recently. Perhaps all he needs is some extra distance on a dry track. And perhaps he never had a chance the last time out because the other horses were just that much better. Also making his first start at 3, also in the "couldn't touch War Pass and Pyro" camp, and also played up by the media (though I'm not sure why), is Majestic Warrior (A.P. Indy-Dream Surprise, by Seeking the Gold). Nice pedigree, but races aren't won on breeding alone. Come on, even War Pass found a way to sneak in a "prep" before this coming weekend, and you're telling me that neither of these two was ready to race before now? Two months until the Derby, folks...tick...tock.

I literally have no confidence in Blackberry Road (Gone West-Strawberry Reason, by Strawberry Road). I know the commentators think he's got a good chance at the Derby, but I have yet to see a single performance from him that I thought was impressive. Nor has he looked like a horse that could improve upon a just-miss finish. Maybe I'm just prejudiced.

Stevil hasn't won anything since breaking his maiden in October. He's never faced stakes company prior to this. One assumes that Nick Zito knows his job and has a capital reason for including this horse here (it will be his first time in blinkers). Or maybe he just felt left out, seeing as how none in his giant stable of classy runners is in the race.

Now, Yankee Bravo (Yankee Gentlemen-Vickey Jane, by Royal Academy), I'm afraid of. He's unbeaten in 3 starts, succesfully transitioned from turf to dirt, has won at this distance (in this year), and has shown an ability to navigate a crowded field to victory. Rounding out the field is My Pal Charlie (Indian Charlie-Shahalo, by Halo), who is making a step up to stakes company after a comfortable allowance win over moderate company in February. What's to like about this horse? Well, there is that Indian Charlie lucky streak going on...but didn't I just say horses don't win on pedigree alone...I think I did...I really should listen to myself...sigh.

1. Pyro

2. Yankee Bravo

3. My Pal Charlie

Gotham Stakes

Finally, finally, Giant Moon (Giants' Causeway-Moonlightandbeauty, by Capote) is back in the game. And comparatively, he's got a lot bigger question mark next to his name than Pyro does. The undefeated colt (that's going to get old real soon) is coming off a nice win in the Count Fleet Stakes. Unlike many in this race, he's gone beyond two turns...and won...and in stakes company. So what's the big question? He's running in New York, and as yet, has not faced the kind of competition other young 3-year olds have been getting in Florida, Arkansas, or even California. Well, the gravy train stops here. Quality horses are shipping in from all over to try the "easier" fields of the Gotham Stakes (g.III) and, one would assume, the follow up Wood Memorial (g.I).

One of these quality shippers is my boy Visionaire (Grand Slam-Scarlet Tango, by French Deputy), who is coming up from Florida to escape the "monsters". Despite his fearsome competition in the Risen Star (he finished 3rd behind Pyro and Z Fortune), I think he did pretty darn well in his stakes debut. Plus, I have a fondness of old for his trainer, Michael Matz. Barbaro who? I'm talking about the former Olympian and rider of Heisman, who won my heart by wresting victory from the hands of Budweiser Gem Twist.

Hey, racing's not my only game.

Also in my stable (and with the most to prove) is Roman Emperor (Empire Maker-Lady Melesi, by Colonial Affair). Second to Barrier Reef in the Whirlaway. Third behind Giant Moon in the Count Fleet. He, like Thursday's child, has far to go.

The remainder of the contenders appears to be a tad confused as yet, but we're likely to see Eaton’s Gift, Holidaze, Ling Ling Qi, Saratoga Russell, Southern Terminus, and Texas Wildcatter. Saratoga Russell seems to have some followers, although he's never won beyond 6f, and seems to be partial to a damp track. Eaton's Gift was first in the Swale Stakes last out, and came in second to Into Mischief in the mile and one sixteenth Cash Call (which is perhaps not as bad an inidcator of quality as I have previously suggested), so at least he's been around two turns before and kicked it up in stakes company. And Texas Wildcatter was third in the aforementioned Whilraway. The remainder are not really a concern.

1. Giant Moon

2. Visionaire

3. Roman Emperor

4. (if I had to choose) Texas Wildcatter

Ups and Downs

The racing gods can't seem to make up their minds about how to treat the fillies recently. We have to compare the recent triumphs of Absolutely Cindy and Indian Blessing to the let down of losing Winning Colors. Perhaps its cosmic backlash against the "Ladies Classic". Today I read that champion Miss Alleged died as a result of complications while foaling. The baby is apparently on a nurse mare. One of only two female winners of the Breeder's Cup Turf (g.I), she also bested the boys in the Hollywood Turf Cup Stakes (g.I).

Also of sad Distaffer news, it seems that Oprah Winney has been retired; thus depriving television commentators of an easy human interest story.

Final Weekend Update

2008-03-03T10:19:00.003-05:00

And Bsharpsonata takes the Davona Dale! Making for an interesting weekend which ultimately affected me not at all. Not so next weekend.

Photo: Jim Lisa

Let's hear it for the girl!

2008-03-02T12:41:00.010-05:00

Whoo boy, I do so love to see a filly whip a bunch of startled boys at their own game, and this weekend, the previously uninspiring Absolute Cindy delivered. Let's recap:

John Battaglia Memorial Stakes

This race started pretty much as you would have expected with Mr. Harry taking the lead and setting respectable fractions while the rest of the field arranged themselves behind him. It was a perfect set up for Your Round (my favorite for the win) who, as expected, came around the far turn and put himself comfortably ahead of the tiring pacesetter, with nothing but clear stretch in front of him.

Oh, and then this no-name filly came out of nowhere and stampeded down the center of the track to catch the entire field flatfooted and win off by 1 and 3/4 lengths.

Absolutely Cindy (Arch-Ms. Boucheron, by L’Enjoleur) was absolutely stunning in this race and really makes one wonder exactly where she was previously when finishing sixth in Indian Blessing's Siverbulletday Stakes (g.III) and a less than striking 3rd to Bsharpsonata in the Tropical Park Oaks. Who would have guessed she'd pull it off today (at $41.60 to win, the answer is "Not many")? Maybe she was trained perfectly for this contest. Maybe she's just coming into her own. Look out Oaks field, you've got a new contender. Oh, and boys? You better keep your eyes peeled as well. You never know when the ghost of Winning Colors might be coming up to nip you on the hindquarters.

Photo: Pat Lang

Sham Stakes

Although it wasn't a surprise that Victory Pete took the lead early in this 5 horse field, it was something of a surprise that he was so lazy about it. After such relaxed fractions early on, just about everyone had some gas left over at the end. Colonel John (Tiznow-Sweet Damsel, by Turkoman) pulled to the front and stayed there. El Gato Malo was clearly frustrated and stuck behind horses and, once he managed to shake himself free, visibly lost focus and started drifting aimlessly in the center of the track. His jockey finally got him back to business, but it was far to late to catch up to the well rested, cool as a cucumber, Colonel John. I'm no fan of either of the first two finishers here, but I can't help thinking the winner had a perfect trip and that the place horse could be a monster once he gets a little seasoning.

Santa Anita Handicap

Well, in all honesty, I thought this race was a toss up from the start. Fourteen horses, none of whom you could automatically eliminate, pretty much all of whom had faced one another at least once before. Eh, so my record of trifecta calls has been proved a glitch (as I much suspected). But I did get the winner. Heatseeker (Giant's Causeway) came home with the win, passing the tiring Monterey Jazz (who it turns out should not have attempted a repeat of his Strub Stakes win in this longer route) and holding off a late but determined charge from recent Sunshine Million's winner Go Between. Champs Elysees was perhaps the most interesting finisher of the race. Guess Bob Baffert wasn't entirely crazy to put his grass horse into a tried and tested synthetic loving field. He finished third, and served official notice of his versatility.

Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap

Former claimer Ever a Friend (Crafty Prospector) took this contest by 3 and 3/4 lengths, posting a fairly impressive final time of 1:33.37 on firm turf. Where was recent Sunshine Millions Turf winner War Monger? What about my good money choice, Out of Control? That's right, nowhere. Didn't I recently say I wasn't going to try to call turf races anymore? Perhaps I should listen to my own advice.

Gulfstream Park Handicap

And finally I did something right again. Sir Whimsey (Jump Start-Apogee, by Star de Naskra) vindicated me just a little by coming off of a strong January allowance victory and holding off a determined stretch challenge from race favorite Fairbanks to win this 1 and 3/16 mile race.

In other news...

Still waiting on the Davona Dale. It's probably a cop out to vote for Bsharpsonata (Pulpit- Apasionata Sonata, by Affirmed) in this one, but I'm doing it anways. Recap tomorrow. Oh and Malibu Moonshine (Malibu Moon-Time to Coast, by Coastal) took the Stymie Handicap...which I wasn't even aware he was running in. If I had, I would certainly have mentioned him, because I absolutely love his sire, Malibu Moon. Love, love, love his sire. An no, it's not entirely because of his one time owner Josh Pons' heartfelt admissions about life on a thoroughbred farm that were published periodically in my favorite magazine (though it certainly has aided with my affections). I just love to see a relatively cheap sire who gets stakes winners like he's managed to. And remember, everything you've seen so far of his is from his Maryland circuit. Now that he's been mounting Kentucky quality mares for a couple of years, who knows what he'll do.

Big Weekend for Races, No Points for Me

2008-02-29T11:13:00.011-05:00

Well, there is a lot going on in the racing world this weekend, too bad absolutely none of my RttR horses are in anything. Ah well, could be worse.

Sham Stakes

This classic g.III rated west coast tune up for the Santa Anita Derby goes off this Saturday on Santa Anita's still somewhat suspect synthetic track. Not suspect anymore because of its complete inability to drain (a problem which looks to have been mostly cleared up), but because you really can't compare horses running on polytrack with those running on more traditional dirt surfaces. Although everyone's a little confused about what synthetics are actually like for the horses (good/bad, more turf like/dirt like, speed favoring/closer favoring), everyone seems to be in agreement that running on real dirt is somehow significantly different. So, even if some horse makes a name for himself this spring in California, even if some colt, like Sham himself, proves themselves the master of their western domain, that winner will come into Louisville with a huge question mark hovering over his head.

El Gato Malo (El Corredor-One Bad Cat, by Mountain Cat) tore up the track in the one mile San Rafael (g.III) last month, winning with a 6 1/4 length margin in a time of 1:33 and 1/5. His three victories thus far give him a combined winning margin of 16 lengths. Not up to Fierce Wind's antics, but still impressive. He shows no sign of slowing down for the addition of an extra 1/8th of a mile in this contest.

Colonel John (Tiznow) is hot property in Derby picks right now after his second place finish to Into Mischief in the Cash Call Futurity in late December. I believe I've already expressed my views on the Cash Call and its field, so I'll let you draw your conclusions from that. Reflect Times, a Japanese bred colt by French Deputy (out of Franca, by Seeking the Gold), was third in the Robert B. Lewis, and I liked Crown of Thorn's performace as the winner in that race enough to give this guy a second look. I also have an inkling his pedigree might do well on the synthetic track. Victory Pete (Five Star Day) was third last in the California Derby, losing by only a length to the undefeated Yankee Bravo (who I happen to think is a pretty good horse).

My two would be favorites for this race, Crown of Thorns and Coast Guard, were both scratched.

1. El Gato Malo

2. Victory Pete

3. Reflect Times

John Battaglia Memorial Stakes

Also runnning on synthetic surface, though curiously not in California, is this as yet ungraded 1 1/16 mile prep for the Lane's End Shakes (g.II). Not only do I not stable any of the runners, I haven't even heard of any of them before in my life (which just goes to show how green I really am). It seems a lot of them might be Turfway Park specialists, as 4 of them raced previously in the WEBN Stakes earlier this month. That race was won by Big Glen (Cactus Ridge) who is the presumptive favorite here. However, one should not overlook the second placed horse in that race, Your Round (Distorted Humor), who could only manage 8th in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf, but has done much better after a switch to dirt. Synthetics should do just fine for him. Also, I like his pedigree and his recent close losses have all come at the expense of wide trips. Third in the WEBN was Mr. Harry (Flatter), who looks to be snuck up on as a front runner on polytrack. Sixth was Dixie Decision...who doesn't seem to bear much mention here.

Briarwood Circle (Smart Strike-Fleet Road, by Magisterial) is something more of an unknown. He also started on turf, and in Canada. He was a close second in his last start, the Display Stakes last November, and will be making his three year old debut here. Why include him? Well, his pedigree mostly. What can I say, Smart Strike has made an impression on me. And just to throw a wrench into everything, there's a filly in the field. God, I love a filly who races the boys. Absolutely Cindy (Arch) was 6th last in the Silverbulletday Stakes (g.III), won by Indian Blessing, but is otherwise fairly consistent, with a record of 9-2-2-3.

1. Your Round

2. Briarwood Circle

3. Big Glen

Santa Anita Handicap

Now, the Big Cap is this week's big deal. With a 14 horse field full of class, the possibilities for bettors are nigh endless. I could write a whole post about this one race, but I won't....cause I'm lazy.

Awesome Gem (Awesome Again), the presumptive favorite, was third behind Curlin and Hard Spun in the Breeder's Cup Classic (g.I), was third in the San Antonio Hanicap (g.II) in early February, and recently posted a bullet work at Hollywood Park. Strong stuff, but I wonder at a horse who was third last out over the same track being a presumptive favorite. Awesome Gem's trainer, Craig Dollase, also has the presumptive 2nd choice in the race, Monterey Jazz (Thunderello). Monterey Jazz lead wire-to-wire in the 1 1/8 mile Strub Stakes (g.II) earlier this February, which is a somewhat strange tactic for a horse that's now 3 for 3 over two turns. Will the additional distance hamper him this time around? Maybe not, but the stampede of classy closers behind him sure might!

Finishing ahead of Awesome Gem in the San Antonio, and as a close closing second to Well Armed after having a somewhat troubled trip, was Heatseeker (Giant's Causeway). Prior to that, he won the Native Diver Handicap (g.III) at Hollywood Park. He recently breezed a mile in an easy 1:00. Do I need to tell you more?

Student Council (Kingmambo-Class Kris, by Kris S., and do I even need to point out the lovely grass pedigree? Gosh, why am I such a breeding snob?) also beat Awesome Gem, but that was waaaay last year in the Pacific Classic. Coming off a disappointing 8th in the Japan Dirt Cup, Student Council (who I was something of a fan of last year) was only able to get a 5th in the San Antonio, behind Awesome Gem, Heatseeker and Big Booster (another horse in the Big Cap, who I'm dismissing out of hand...sorry).

Go Between (Point Given), was a recent impressive Winner of the Sunshine Millions Classic over the same distance, and would be an excellent choice. But this confirmed late closer, though he's shown excellent ability to go wide on the turns and still finish strong, will likely have 13 horses ahead of him to contend with. That tends to make for a not insignificant wall. Meanwhile, Celtic Dreamin (Game Plan), who was outrun by Go Between in the stretch of the Sunshine Millions has hooked up again with his replacement rider from that day, Alex Solis. This horse is 5-4-0 in 9 lifetime starts. Have you heard me mention before how much a love a consistent horse? It bears repeating; and at 20-1 this boy would round out anyone's trifecta perfectly.

Tiago (Pleasant Tap) has never been one of my heroes (though my co-worker liked him a lot last year when he was big). He was third in the San Fernando Stakes (g.II) and second in the Strub Stakes (g.II) over the same track already this year. Certainly not inconsistent, and any other day I'd use him to pad my trifecta, but not with this field.

Champs Elysees (Danehill-Hasili) is a horse I've always liked. He's got a killer female family with grass written all over it and he just came off a win in the San Marcos Stakes (g.IIT). One might wonder why he's being tried on dirt. Oh sure, polytrack is supposed to be very "turf-like", but I question why they don't keep him where they know he can perform. Trainer Bobby Frankel's flippant answer leaves something to be desired. Also coming off the turf is Medici Code, who was third last in the San Gabriel Handicap (g. IIT) in December. He's won before on synthetics in England and has trained well here, but I think he just has too many hurdles to get over in this one.

Great Hunter, though one of my Derby favorites last year, has failed to do anything impressive since. Seminole Native was third in the Sunshine Millions (behind Go Between and Celtic Dreamin...there is such a tangle of horses in the west coast older male division it's crazy), but tiring after that mile and an eighth distance doesn't bode well for this weekend's mile and a quarter.

I could go on....

1. Heatseeker

2. Celtic Dreamin

3. Monterey Jazz

And furthermore...

I'm not going to spend the time or energy profiling the other races of this week, but let's just say I like Bsharpsonata in the Davona Dale (g.II). Though I think War Monger is the best choice in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap (g.IT), I'd put money on Out of Control (who looks to pay significantly better). And for yet more older horses on the dirt, I like Sir Whimsey in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (g.II).

In other news...

- Curlin surprised pretty much no one when he cruised to an easy 2 1/4 legnth finish under the lights of Nad al Sheba in the Jaguar Cup. A little rank early in the race (hey, wouldn't you be after nearly a 4 month layoff), jockey Robby Albarado settled him just behind the front runner Familiar Territory, and left enough run in the colt to draw away from the crowd (with loose reins) in the stretch. Not quite as yawn-worthy as War Pass' recent paid workout (did I mention Curlin carried 132 pounds and spotted the next horse 15?), but still an easy win. And the racing world marks March 29th on its calendars as the date for Curlin's next expected win.

- Scratched from the Sham Stakes was Coast Guard (Stormy Atlantic), who previously finished 2nd behind Crown of Thorns in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (g.II) at the beginning of February. The colt apparently had some heat in his ankle after a workout and his connections decided to hold off until next week's El Camino Real Derby (g.III). Why is this news? Because the number 1 and 2 horse of the Robert B. Lewis have now been sidetracked because of injuries. This race was run just before the improvements to fix up Santa Anita's track were implemented. I'm sorry, it's just suspicious. So synthetic tracks are supposed to be better for the horses, right?

- Everybody seems to have an opinion about the recent decision to move all the filly and mare races on the Breeder's Cup program to the Friday card, and to refer to the Breeder's Cup Distaff the "Ladies Classic". First allow me to say I am totally against moving all the girl's races to Friday, only because I was totally against putting any of the Breeder's Cup races on a Friday in the first place. Hello, some of us work. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that most of us work. And Friday is a work day. You want to add races and put them on Sunday, making a weekend of the Breeder's Cup? More power to you. I'd love a whole weekend's worth of camping out on the couch with muchies while the world's greatest thoroughbreds trot past on my flat screen tv. But as it is I have to rely on TiVo for the Friday races, and I was only comforted last year by the fact that the Friday races were, in general, the "lesser" contests. Now, you're going to put the Distaff, there? One of the most important races in this country? And how, pray tell, other than abstaining completely from internet news the entire day am I to remain unspoiled as to the outcome until I can make it home and watch the replays? I'm still pissed about finding out about Roses in May winning the Dubai World Cup from a CNN ticker before the race could even be shown on US tv (seriously, who would have thought CNN would care about this sort of thing?).

That being said, I don't find anything particularly insulting about changing the name (although I think the "Filly and Mare Classic" would be a better name). I don't personally consider "Ladies" to be an offensive term. And though I suppose I could understand how others might have a problem with it, I question whether they know the true meaning of the word "distaff". I happen to know it's not just a funny name for a mare's race only because I'm something of a history buff and, personally, I do think it's an offensive term:

Distaff –noun

1. a staff with a cleft end for holding wool, flax, etc., from which the thread is drawn in spinning by hand.

2. a similar attachment on a spinning wheel.

3. Archaic.
a. a woman or women collectively.
b.woman's work.

–adjective

4. Sometimes Offensive. noting, pertaining to, characteristic of, or suitable for a woman; female.

So really, I'm not too bothered by the name change.

They race on Thursday?

2008-02-27T09:32:00.008-05:00

Not that we don't race on Thursday's in America, and likely even hold stakes races on that day of the week, but my apparently ethno-centric view of sports has resulted in shock that Curlin (Smart Strike- Sheriff's Deputy, by Deputy Minister) will be making his 4-year old and Dubai track debut tomorrow in the Jaguar Trophy, and not on a weekend when sports events are sensibly supposed to be held. The race will be 1 1/4 miles on the dirt, a distance we know Curlin knows and likes, with a purse of $175,000. His four opponents for the race are Familiar Territory and Imperialista, both trained by Saeed bin Suroor (a five time winner of the World Cup...which is a more impressive factor when one considers it has only ever been run 12 times before), Arqaam, Engrupido, and Jet Express. I know absolutely nothing about these horses...except that they will pretty much have to bank on Curlin not having taken the trip overseas well in order to bring home the bacon. Unfortunately for them, Curlin seems to have settled in well, was not fazed by the long plane ride, and worked easily in the unfamiliar Dubai starting gates (thank you over-coverage of the horse racing media for making sure I am aware of Curlin's every move).

This race is, of course, intended to be a prep for the March 29th, $6 million dollar Dubai World Cup. That race, which is also run at a mile and a quarter, was won last year by Invasor (Candy Stripes-Quendom, by Interprete), champion in two countries. Finishing second in that race (and unfortunately pretty much forgotten) was Premium Tap (Pleasant Tap-Premium Road, by Thirty Six Red), who I personally have a very great liking for. It will be interesting to see what the end of March brings for Curlin. As for tomorrow, well, I certainly wouldn't call the Jaguar Trophy a 'soft touch' for him, but I don't expect his competition to give him too much trouble.

In other news

Someone in Texas found a good home for his no longer race ready Mailman Express, when he gave the horse to a waitress as a tip. A winner of $15,000 at the track, the 5-year old gelding will now live a life of comparative ease as a pleasure horse for his new owner. Let's hear it for another racing veteran avoiding the slaughterhouse.

Weekend in Review

2008-02-25T10:06:00.010-05:00

I would have been happy with my two RttR horses finishing anywhere in the money in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (g.II). And they did. So it's not really for me to complain that they didn't finish exactly as I expected them to and that they got beat by a horse I certainly didn't think would come back from a 7th place in his previous stakes performance. But let's save the analysis for its proper place.

Fountain of Youth

Cool Coal Man (Mineshaft-Coral Sea, by Rubiano), a Nick Zito sleeper, followed up his recent allowance victory with his first stakes win. I must admit, I had this horse pretty much nowhere on my radar, and though I can't argue with plain facts (he won the race, I saw the replays) I'm still not convinced of his ultimate superiority. The pace for this race was essentially non-existant, making it hard for any closers to shine, and Cool Coal Man, breaking from the one spot, received a perfect trip under Kent Desormeaux. Even still, the colt was only just able to hold off a late charge by none other than...

Elysium Fields (El Prado- Dreams, by Silver Hawk)! Yes, my shot in the dark pick proved he's got some talent, stalking the pace, making his move early on the turn (possibly a little too early) and then almost coming back to catch the winner after switching from an inside track to the outside halfway through the stretch. Cool Coal Man went from leading by 2.5 lenghts in mid-stretch to besting him by only half a length, which makes one wonder what would have happened with an extra 1/16 of a mile to run? Or farther? Oh yes, Elysium Fields is firmly ensconced in my stable now.

Good boy!

And who was that limping along in third place 5 and 3/4 lengths behind the number two horse? Why Court Vision, putting in a less than stellar performance. In his defense he came on in a rush from last place to get where he ended up and with the pace being sloooooowww he didn't have much of a chance to catch the leaders. Sure, he should have made his move sooner, but I think we can chalk that mistake up to inexperience (it was his first 3-year old start). I'd like to see him try this distance again, or even a little farther. I'm not giving up on him yet.

And from the annals of horses one should give up on? Z Humor. Yep, no big surprise that he couldn't recover in 8 days to come back with a stakes win. In fact, the big surprise was that he finished in the money at all, coming in fourth behind Court Vision. I was actually rather impressed by his finish (given my total lack of confidence in him otherwise). Unfortunately, I think he's just too green still to be on the Derby trail, but he's got the makings of a good racehorse to come. Similarly, Halo Najib failed to turn things around after his 13 day layoff, and now looks to be a Derby prep footnote.

Anak Nakal was a pretty big disappointment, but it means I made the right choice for my RttR stable. Strangely, Anak Nakal killed Cool Coal Man last year in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (g.II). But here he could only manage 8th...never firing. Seriously, does Nick Zito even know which of his multitude of talented colts is the best?

We apparently can't say anything one way or the other about Monba, who was bumped and faded to last. His connections are likely to blame the interference on his poor performance. I'll reiterate that I think he should be sent to the turf.

Regardless, good race. Good horses. I'm happy to add 16 more points to my stable (overall ranking- tied with lots for 1621st place). I like that my horse (Elysium Fields) came out of the race looking like a better prospect than the eventual winner. I am, in general, pleased with the outcome. Not so much my attempt at calling the turf races.

Photo: Coglianese Photos

Gulfstream Park Turf Stakes

Einstein (Spend A Buck- Gay Charm, by Ghadeer) showed that my complete lack of faith in him was misguided, becoming the first horse to ever win the grade I turf race for the second time. Sure, he looked like the class going into the race, but every once and a while I go out of my way to convince myself that the favorite is not actually the best horse. It's something of a prejudice I have, not wanting to believe in favorites. Anyways, that appears to be what happened here. I dismissed absolutely everything in Einstein's favor and went with (what appeared to be ) a promising colt (Shamdinan) who finished...what...ninth?!? Out of 10?!? What the heck!! My other picks, Cougar Bay, Dave and Zann, couldn't manage better than 5th, 6th, and 7th.

So....ummmm...right, no more turf races for me.

Meanwhile, let's all give a shout out for Helen Pitts for winning it with the game old veteran. Get a clue folks, this woman trains stakes winners. Maybe if you could get your noses out of your good-ol-boy playbooks you'd see that. Heaven forbid that a woman be allowed to train a Derby hopeful through his spring preps. Sigh.

In other news . . .

In the least surprising performance this entire weekend, War Pass (Cherokee Run- Vue by Mr. Prospector) wired the field in the one mile allowance race that followed the Fountain of Youth. He won by 7 1/2 lengths going away to remain undefeated in 5 lifetime starts (including last year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile, g.I). Never challenged by his 4 rivals, who have been generously described as 'overmatched', he ran his race is a fairly liesurely 1:36.38. One wonders if he broke a sweat. That being said, I don't genrally look to front runners to win the Derby (though it happens) and I don't normally look to horses that open their 3-year old season in late February with an allowance race against meagre competition period. Sure he's in my stable, he's in just about everyone's stable, but he sure isn't doing us any good there staying out of stakes company. Can he prove another Street Sense and capture both the juvenile championship and the roses? Who knows at this point. His true ability remains to be seen, and I'll withold comment until I actually see him fight for a win.

In completely unrelated news, I just realized I have commentors! Awesome. Thanks for actually looking at my stuff.

We now return to our regularly scheduled program

2008-02-23T10:27:00.012-05:00

So, back to three-year olds on dirt. There's only one prep race this weekend, but it's a biggie with a field of 12 Derby hopefuls trying to keep themselves on the path to glory.

The Fountain of Youth

My picks this week are made somewhat easier by the fact that two of the entrants are in my RttR stable. Court Vision (Gulch-Weekend Storm by Storm Bird, and can I just say I love this breeding for a classic distance horse?) is 4-3-1-0, because he wisely skipped out on the Breeder's Cup Juvenile where every other quality juvenile was left churning in War Pass' muddy wake. His last race was a win in th 1 1/8 Remsen Stakes (g.II) back in November, so he'll be putting in his first 3-year old performance today. However, he's talented and beautifully bred, and if he doesn't trip over himself he'll do well.

My other horse, Elysium Fields, is something of a shot in the dark. Today will mark his first attempt at stakes company. He placed in all his starts last year, and finally broke his maiden this year in a 1 1/8 mile allowance race over the Gulfstream track. He likes the track, he goes the distance, and he's by El Prado so he's bred to go farther. Sooooo, he'll either prove himself today, or I'll probably have to make myself a new RttR stable (I can't afford one injury and one non-performer...plus I've got Giant Moon sitting there on his haunches doing nothing as it is). Oh well, best of luck my friend.

Also entered are Monba (Maria's Mon- Hamba, by Easy Goer), who was last 4th behind Into Mischief in the 1 1/16 mile Cash Call Futurity (g.I) in December. Now, I refused to put Into Mischief into my stable because I thought he looked too much like a sprinter who got lucky over a mile. I don't know what I think about anyone who finished behind him, except that they got outrun. Monba just looks to me like a horse bred to go green (read: run on grass) and I can't support his Derby bid.

Anak Nakal will also be making his 2008 debut and is most people's first or second choice. He's 3-2-1-0, but just about all the quality juveniles coming back for their first 3-year old start will look that good on paper (especially if they passed on the Breeder's Cup). He's by Victory Gallop (who was second, second and first in his own Triple Crown attempt) out of Misk by Quiet American (curiously, the sire of Real Quiet, who was first, first and second in Victory Gallop's Triple Crown attempt). In other words, this guy has Derby written all over his pedigree, and in any other year he'd be on my list. There just wasn't room. Trust me, he's number 11. Well, actually, I guess he's #10 (damn you Crown of Thorns!!!). I really can't say anything bad about him, except that his last win (the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, g.II) was 1 mile and 1/16 while Court Vision's was the longer 1 1/8 mile distance, so Court Vision gets the nod.

Halo Najib (Halo's Image) was a recent stakes winner at a mile and a sixteenth...very recent. He raced 13 days ago in the Darley OBS Championship stakes. I salute his connections for going back to the old iron horse tradition, where Whirlaway was given an allowance race in between his Preakness and Belmont wins. However, I do question their motives as it appears he's only in this race for the money (well, for the graded earnings he needs to get into the Derby). I've got Derby mania myself, but I wouldn't kill a good quality horse for it.

Z Humour is the surprise entry here. Hey, didn't I already talk about this guy recently? Yep, his connections have put him back in a race just 8 days after his disappointing 5th place finish in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Perhaps the horse needed that race as a tune up. Perhaps Bill Mott has seen some marked improvement in the colt that makes him think it's worth giving him another chance. Heck, perhaps Z Humour had a mouth abscess that wasn't discovered until after the Sam F. Davis which was the sole cause of him backing off the bit (nod your head if you recognize that bit of horse racing trivia). But sorry, this just looks like desperation to me. It's entirely possible that Z Humor will win by ten lengths going away today (hey, anything's possible). Either that or he's finished.

I've heard there are other horses in this race, but in all reality I don't expect much from them (of course, having now said that, just watch the Trifecta fill with names unmentioned herein).

1. Court Vision
2. Anak Nakal
3. Elysium Fields

Now there's a playing favorites pick if I ever saw one. Ah well, sometimes it just turns out that everyone agrees with you regarding the horses you think are the best.

In other news

War Pass (Cherokee Run- Vue by Mr. Prospector) will be making his 3-year old debut this week, but not in the Fountain of Youth, or any stakes level race for that matter. He's been entered in a one mile allowance race on the undercard of the Fountain of Youth. The champion two-year old male and Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner is undefeated in 4 starts and looks to decimate his company. Clearly his trainer wants to take it easy with his prize horseflesh and give him a slow tune-up for his likely Tampa Bay Derby entrance in March. He doesn't need the graded earnings that most of the other horses on the trail need to make up, so why push him?

Because he's a race horse. A stakes race horse. And I question the motives of any trainer who holds his alleged best three-year old back in allowance company. Well see in March what War Pass has in store for us, but until then...well...I have to say, I'm in doubt of his fitness.

It's not all 3-year old's

2008-02-21T10:18:00.019-05:00

Though you might find this hard to believe in early spring in America. It's so easy to get focused on the Derby preps that you almost forget there are older horses running out there. In fact, about the only thing that can drag my eyes away from descriptions of how the current crop of 3-year olds is progressing are pictures of the adorable foals that are dropping to the ground in droves this time of year. Yesterday, I actually squealed at a photo in The Blood Horse. "Oooohhh, look" I said to my very patient husband, turning the magazine around for him to see, "Baby Curlin." Actually, although the picture of the champion was undeniably cute, a second look had me blinking at his hind legs and wondering if he was just standing weird. Or maybe his conformation leaves something to be desired. I've never heard anyone disparage his form, and it's rather hard to tell from the brief glimpses one gets on TV, or from pictures of him frozen in full gallop at the wire. Lovely shoulders...but those hind legs...hmmmm. Regardless, although it helps, conformation in itself does not win races. Horses do. And although conformation may have much to do with how well a horse can keep himself together for a career beyond his three-year old season, it's not definitive. Which, of course, is why Curlin is now a 4-year old cantering through the deserts of Dubai and pointing towards the richest race in the world.

Which brings us back to our original point about there being more than just 3-year old Derby (and Oaks) preps in the spring. One of these is the Gulfstream Park Turf Stakes, which is being run this coming Saturday.

Now, I'm American, and that means that I know Jack about turf horses compared with the rest of the world, but I do try to pay attention. I do try to read the stakes records from other countries where just about everyone runs on grass (and in the wrong direction, and sometimes over hurdles), but in all truth, I'm a bit lost. So, it should be a good exercise for me to take a look at this race (knowing comparatively little about the contenders and nothing about the course) and attempting to pick a runner or two. So, I've decided to do a little profile on the race itself. Prepare to be educated:

The Gulfstream Park Turf Stakes is a grade I rated race for 4-year olds and up on the turf. It is a mile and 3/8 long (or 11 furlongs), which puts it smack dab in between the a mile and a quarter length of the Kentucky Derby and the mile and a half of the Belmont. It was previosuly run at the shorter distance of a mile and 1/16 (which is a much more common length for an American race), and in 2006 was run at a mile and 7/16....which is a sixteenth of a mile longer than it currently is. One assumes they cut the length down to its current size because 1 and 7/16 is just too cumbersome a description for turf writers. All runners carry 123 pounds.

The record time for the race of 2:10.73 was set by a horse named Yagli (whom I've never heard of, but that's not surprising) in 1999. Given that a horse running eleven furlongs at a twelve-clip (the timing of 12 seconds to the furlong which is usually considered to be a good basic pace for a stakes race) would finish the race in 2:12, Yagli has set a fairly high standard...especially when one considers that the pace of most turf races is generally slower than that of races run on dirt. Curiously, Gulfsteam Park lists its record time for 1 and 3/8 on the turf track as being set by another horse (Prince Arch) and being only 2:11.4....which is a tad confusing. Regardless, the race was won by Jambalaya (by Langfur) last year and by Einstein the year before that (note this for later on).

The horses contesting this year's $350,000 in prizes are:

1. Dave

This 7-year old New York bred gelding by End's Well is trained by Barclay Tagg (of Funny Cide fame). Dave, who suffers from an unbelievably boring name, had his last start in December in the 1 1/2 mile W. L. McKnight Handicap (gr. IIT) , where he finished fourth. Prior to that, he won the 1 3/8-mile Red Smith Handicap (gr. IIT) in November. He is 6-10-3 from 35 starts, which gives him a 17% win record, and puts him in the money a good 54% of the time.

2. Thorn Song

Thorn Song is a 5-year old by Unbridled’s Song out of Festal by Storm Bird. Thorn Song was 4th last in the 1 1/16 mile Canadian Turf Handicap (g.IIIT), leading most of the way and fading in the stretch. Prior to that he won the 1 1/8 mile River City Handicap (g.IIIT) in November. His record is 4-4-2, though I can't seem to find a total race record for him...and he really only seems to have come into his own at 4 (i.e. last year) anyways.

Photo: Churchill Downs/Reed Palmer

3. Zann (photo unavailable)

Zann (a 5-year old son of Dynaformer) was a hard closing second, losing in a photo finish in his last trip out in the 1 mile 1/16 Citation Handicap (g.IT), but that was way back in November. Zann was a hard closing second, losing in a photo finish in his last race previous to that, the Oak Tree Mile (g.IIT), but that was way back in October. Are we seeing a pattern here? He's got a new trainer in Kiaran McLaughlin and a new jockey, Elvis Trujillo, since then. He's been a victor in 3 of his 13 starts, giving him a 23% win rate, but his close closing seconds keep his connections placing him in progressively longer and longer races, hoping to wear down the front runners.

4. Einstein

See, I told you to take note earlier on. Yes, Einstein (Spend A Buck- Gay Charm by Ghadeer), a 6-year old gelding, won this race once before in 2006. However, that was the one year when it was run at a crazy 1 mile and 7/16. Last year, he finished 3rd. As such, we know he likes the track, and we know he can go the distance, but we don't know much more. No horse has ever repeated a win in the Gulfstream Park Turf. His last race was the Donn Handicap (g.I) on the dirt, in which he finished a tired 6th. Prior to that he went wire to wire in a 1 mile turf allowance race. Prior to that he was taking an 8 month sabbatical in a pasture. He's trained by Helen Pitts, who is currently the least lucky person in horse racing, having trained Curlin last year only to have him removed from her barn when he started to hit the big time, and who had the exact same thing happen this year with Derby hopeful Face the Cat (more on him tomorrow). Einsten is owned by Midnight Cry Stables, which is currently the least lucky stable in the world, seeing as how its owners screwed over a bunch of injured plaintiffs and are now embroiled in a huge lawsuit. Neither of these human issues have any effect on how he will run this weekend, but they certainly make the race more interesting.

Photo: Equi-Photo\Matt Dean

5. Dancing Forever (photo unavailable)

Dancing Forever (Keeper-Forever Dancing) is a stakes winner from New Zealand. You want more info? There's not much. He appears to be fresh off the boat from down under, but he ran there on December 31st and won the Southern Trust Handicap. I presume that the race was on turf, but at what distance, against what company, or anything else about this horse's past is just a big unknown.

6. Stream of Gold

This 7-year old gelding by Rainbow Quest was second in the W. L. McKnight won by Dave above, and runner-up to English Channel (2007 Champion Turf Male) in the 1 mile and 1/2 Turf Classic Invitational (gr. IT) before that. He's unraced in 2008.

Photo: Terrence Dulay

7. Shamdinan

Shamdinan (Dr. Fong-Shamdara by Dr Devious) shipped over from France last fall and promptly made an impression on American soil, winning the Secretariat Stakes (g.IT) in his graded stakes debut. He went on to finish second to English Channel in the 1.5 mile 2007 Breeder's Cup Turf (g.IT). He finished 7 lengths behind English Channel, but, as I'm sure I've mentioned previously, it's hard to take anything that happened in the Monmouth mud seriously. Shamdinan did hold off third placed Red Rocks, who was the defending Breeder's Cup Turf winner. This will be his first start as a 4-year old, though .

Photo: Four Footed Fotos

8. Palace Episode

Palace Episode, a 5-year old colt by Machiavellian out of Palace Weekend by Seattle Dancer has only one allowance victory from six starts in the US after shipping here last year. Previously a Group I winner in England (like a g.I here, but with an accent), he's been stakes placed in America, but was seventh as the favorite in what appears to have been his last time out (circa October). Most interesting tidbit is his broodmare sire Seattle Dancer, famous for being the highest priced yearling ever sold at auction ($13.1 million) who was a failure at the track and not much better in the breeding shed. He's the The Green Monkey of the 1980's.

9. Notable Guest

Notable Guest (Kingmambo-Yenda by Dancing Knave) is a 7-year oldwho has been stakes placed in 4 of his 5 finishes since coming to the US for the 2007 season. It's hard to find much info about the colt (who doesn't seem to have actually won any stakes races since he came to America)...or maybe I'm just getting tired over all the research for this extremely long blog piece. He certainly has the pedigree for grass racing. Apparently, he's been sold as a breeding prospect to investors in Brazil, so you better get a look at him now before he says "Adios!"

10. Cougar Bay (photo unavailable)

Rounding out the field is the 5-year old Daylami gelding, Cougar Bay. He's also trained by Barclay Tagg and he ran last in a one mile allowance race in mid January. Once again, he's a stakes competitor overseas (like most good grass horses), but it's hard to find any info on him that's recent. Man, I must be getting tired of writing.

On to the analysis!

Okay, Einstein likes the track and the distance, so he's clearly going to be in the mix, but I don't think you can just throw out his last race (the Donn) by saying he doesn't like the dirt. A lot of class horses don't like dirt and still can manage better than 6th place. His prep for that race was also nothing to shout about. Meanwhile, I thought English Channel's win in the Breeder's Cup turf was aided significantly by the soft ground and can be discounted, while my pick for that race (Red Rocks) got just edged out by Shamdinan. The only thing he's got going against him is this being his first 2008 start, and that's not a big minus to his credit. Meanwhile, Zann looks better and better the longer he runs. I don't know how he'll react to the change in rider and trainer, but in general horses seem to get better rather than worse once they show up in Kiaran's barn. However, his last two close finishes make me think that maybe he likes a little side by side running action more than he likes winning, so I'm not going to give him the win. Dave has been about as consistent as you can get, and I do love a consistent horse. He's also shown he can win over 1 3/8, which I like to see when I'm picking winners for a big route race. If I had to pick a 4th, I'd go with Cougar Bay. His record's not that impressive, but Barclay looks to have been pointing him to this spot specifically.

1. Shamdinan
2. Zann
3. Dave

Like Clockwork

2008-02-20T13:59:00.007-05:00

And today, as has happened every year I've played the Road to the Roses game, I lost one of my fantasy stable picks to injury. Crown of Thorns (Repent-Crowning Touch by Thunder Gulch) has been sidelined because of a shin injury that will keep him completely out of the Triple Crown picture. Crown of Thorns had previously made a name for himself winning the g.II Robert B. Lewis Stakes in only his thrid race (and second win). Poor boy, we hardly knew you.

Other than this depressing snippet, the only news today seems to be the racing media's gushing over Curlin cantering (yes, cantering) over the Dubai track. Look, he's a good horse. I love him too, but I really don't need to know about every single step he takes in the desert. You can writte about him when he runs his next race or, seeing as that's likely to be against low level company, when he runs in the World Cup. Otherwise, we don't really need an update.

Eh, Not So Much

2008-02-19T11:08:00.003-05:00

Well, I could have called that one better. Guess I used up all my racing luck on the weekend. Still it was an eventful Southwest Stakes!

Denis of Cork (Harlan's Holiday-Unbridled Girl by Unbridled) proved that he's not just a pretty face, winning in style in front of some classy contenders and remaining undefeated in 3 starts. His closing move, if not as earth shatteringly impressive as Pyro's last to first romp in the Risen Star, was considerably more professional in appearance. Between the two of them, we can hopefully look to have an exciting Derby finish. Liberty Bull, my pick for the win, finished third, and he had to share that too, dead heating with Sacred Journey. The latter, I have to admit, did better than I thought he would. He lead pretty much the whole way, with fractions of 22.7, 45.3 and 1:10.8 (that are nothing to sneeze at), and still held on to be in the money in his first time beyond 6 furlongs. He seemed bewildered by the distance in the replay and I think, next time out, he might put in a better performance. And my show pick, Isabull? Umm...yeah. Nowhere to be found. Oh well, could have been worse. I was totally right about Turf War, who didn't race anywhere near his Delta Jackpot form.

So what will happen in the future? Well, the Southwest is just the opening volley of the Oaklawn triple (followed by the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby), which may be lengthened to a four race Derby prep schedule if the Smarty Jones Stakes takes off. There's no good reason for most of these horses to leave (aside from not wanting to face one another again). Liberty Bull has already won once over the track and come close a second time. He's more than likely to stick around for the remaining races. If I were Sacred Journey's trainers I'd want to give the track another go. Will Denis of Cork stick around? Depends. He seemed a little slow in his closing drive, despite confidently overtaking the leaders, and his Beyer figures leave much to be desired. He might benefit from a move to a polytrack course like Keenland. We'll see come March 15th.

In other news...

The great racing filly Winning Colors (Caro-all Rainbows by Bold Hour) was humanely euthanized yesterday, after suffering complications from colic. Most famous for being only one of three fillies to ever win the Kentucky Derby, she also won the Santa Anita Derby and placed third in the Preakness (all, of course, against colts). She failed to come through in the 1988 Breeder's Cup Distaff against her own sex, losing out to her primary female rival, Personal Ensign. She never amounted to much as a 4-year old or as a broodmare, producing only one stakes winner in Japan.

I just finished reading Gold Rush: How Mr. Prospector Became Racing's Billion Dollar Sire (I'll review in a later post), and I find it topical, given that Winning Colors beat both Forty Niner and Seeking the Gold. Both Mr. Prospector sons were great racing colts (Forty Niner is in the above photo, shown losing the Kentucky Derby by a neck to Winning Colors) who ended up founding their own breeding dynasties. Tells you something about the filly's character and abilities.

Sadly, I never knew Winning Colors. I watched my first horse race in the summer on 1988, after the close of her Triple Crown bid, and I didn't see a race on TV until the following year's Belmont Stakes. By that time, Winning Colors was out of the picture. I can't help thinking how much, if I'd even known she existed, I would have loved this hardy, grey beauty who wasn't afraid to take on the boys.

Photo: CDI

Booyah!

2008-02-17T11:36:00.000-05:00

So all did not go as my picks would have suggested, but that's to be expected. However, it's possible that things actually turned out for the better. Let's recap:

Sa m F. Davis Stakes

For this race I predicted that the favorite, Z Humor, would not put in the performance everyone was expecting him to. And I was right, he came in a disappointing fifth. I also thought Smooth Air, most people's second choice, wouldn't take to the added distance, and I was...well...somewhat right. He came in third. Showed he could make the distance, though, and might be one to watch for possible improvement. My instincts about Honey Honey Honey were completely unfounded. Setting a fairly quick (though not blistering) pace early on, he faded to last after the second turn. Oh well.

But I was dead on with Fierce Wind.

The colt by Dixie Union out of the A. P. Indy mare Post Parade (curious how easy it is to find his dam info now that he's actually won a stakes race) stalked in 4th for most of the trip before taking the lead three wide on the far turn and holding off a late closing drive from relative unknown Big Truck. Remaining a perfect three-for three, Fierce Wind's 1/2 length lead over the second placed horse gives him combined winning margins of 15 and 3/4 lengths in his career, making for an average of slightly over 5 lengths. Not quite up to the numbers Curlin was posting this time last year, but darn close. This coming week, his name will be on everybody's lips. Yay me!

Photo: Tom Cooley

Halledale Beach

As I predicted, the outcome of this race was not all that surprising. The three top colts entered finished one-two-three. The only small surprise was that the order got a bit mixed up and Todd Pletcher won with the wrong horse. Cowboy Cal, who pretty much cemented the fact that he's not really a Derby quality horse, was completely outrun in the stretch by his stablemate Why Tonto. Cannonball weakened towards the end, but put in a good performance otherwise, finishing more than 4 lenghts in front of the 4th horse. The big story of the race? Indian Charlie, the sire of Why Tonto (out of the Northern Baby mare Why So Much).

Indian Charlie (In Excess- Soviet Sojourn by Leo Castelli) has just been having a breakout year at stud. His daughter Indian Blessing (out of Shameful by Flying Chevron) was just voted Juvenile Fillies champion of 2007 and is still unbeaten, having just won the Silverbulletday Stakes. Another daughter, Fleet Indian (out of Hustleeta by Alfleet), Champion Older Female of 2006 who suffered a career ending injury in the 2006 Breeder's Cup Distaff, just produced a Storm Cat colt. Indian Charlie also has 3 stakes placed runners so far this year, one of whom, Indian Sun, was second in the g. III San Rafael and (an admittedly dismal) 4th in the g.II Robert B. Lewis stakes; and, as such, is another valid Derby contender. Indian Charlie finished out 2007 as number 2 on the list of leading sires of 2-year olds and number 38 on the overall leading sires list. Not too shabby.

Endeavour Stakes

Turns out Dreaming of Anna didn't have any trouble coming off her layoff and, instead, managed to nose out Lear's Princess for the win. In my defense, it was a near thing. And who was in third? That's right, Meribel. That's gut handicapping for you. Mind you, Take the Ribbon looks to have been scratched, and her absence might have made things a tad easier for everyone else.

Regardless, that makes 4 stakes (if you count the Risen Star last weekend) and three trifecta calls for me. So do I deserve a blog of my very own? Who knows. I certainly don't feel as knowledgeable as all those folks whose blogs I check religiously, but I do feel more confident in myself after this weekend. Might as well keep going now.

In other news...

Golden Dawn (Hennessy-Paved in Gold by Carson City) took the Barbara Fritchie handicap over defending winner Oprah Winney. Although I had always though the latter was little more than a clever name, I was sad to see her eased and walked off the track. Let's hope she recovers to amuse her namesake again.
Surf Cat surprised the heck out of me, having not won a thing since May of 2006, by winning the San Carlos Handicap (g.II). By Sir Cat out of the Centrust mare, Trust Greta, he's anything but royally bred. However, he's apparently very consistent, holding a record of 8-5-1 in 16 starts.

Looking Forward....

Tomorrow marks the running of the Southwest Stakes (now with g.III!), which in recent years has proven to be a quality prep race for Derby starters (2007-Teuflesberg, 2006-Lawyer Ron, 2004-Smarty Jones) . However, I have absolutely none of the entrants in my fantasy stable. As such, I'm as impotent as...say... War Emblem. However, that doesn't mean I can't make some predictions. Turf War's (Dixie Union-Grass Skirt by Mr. Prospector) claim to fame is his dead heat against Z Humor in the recent Delta Jackpot. However, as we just saw above, Z Humor may not be "all that", and a dead heat win in Louisiana is really nothing to shout about. Denis of Cork is everybody's (well, except me) dark horse for the Derby. The undefeated Harlan's Holiday colt has proven himself at 2 turns and in the slop during a recent allowance race. There's still a question of whether he'll perform as well in stakes company. My instinct? He's too pretty to be good. Sacred Journey is also undefeated in allowance company...but at 6 furlongs. So let me get this straight...they're trying him for the first time at two turns...at stakes company...and giving him a completely new jockey for this test. Ummm...no. Silver Edition was less than impressive during his 4th place in the Swale Stakes, and did nothing to suggest he'd improve with added distance. Meanwhile, we've got both Liberty Bull and Isabull, who I think I'm going to start referring to as the Holy Bull Twins (like the Wonder Twins, but cooler), who finished first and second in the inaugural Smarty Jones Stakes. Yeah, I think I know who I'm pulling for:

1. Liberty Bull
2. Isabull
3. Denis of Cork

Okay, here's something amusing that I found while looking for a non-password protected website to link to detailing War Emblem's failed career at stud.

Weekend Preview

2008-02-16T10:33:00.000-05:00

Well, there's only one major prep race this weekend, and I've only got one horse in it. Still, it gives me something to talk about

Sam F. Davis Stakes

Everybody seems to like Z Humor (Distorted Humor-Offtheoldblock by A.P. Indy) in this one, and I do have to say he looks good. He certainly has the pedigree to stretch out, and he's been fairly consistent in his previous races (though notably not as consistent as War Pass and Pyro); but what can I say, I chose his stablemate (the other 'Z' horse) for my fantasy stable, and there's pretty much no going back now. Meanwhile, I took a chance on the Nick Zito trained Fierce Wind (Dixie Union, you'd be surprised how hard it is to find pedigree info on non-stakes horses), making his first start in stakes company today, because who doesn't love a spring three year old who wins a mile and an eighth allowance test going away. Mind you, after today, he very well may make a great allowance horse (which isn't saying much). But, you gotta have some untested runners in your stable because someone always comes out of nowhere to be a contender. Remember Curlin this time last year? No not really, he'd just made his first (albeit impressive) start. Everyone's holding their breath to see if Smooth Air can stretch out to two turns. My initial guess? No. Honey Honey Honey (Awesome of Course-EJ's Honey by Honey Jay) knows the track, likes it, and has proved himself nearby in a 7f stakes. Other than the ignoble pedigree, what's not to like?

1. Honey Honey Honey
2. Z Humor
3. Fierce Wind (just cause he's in my stable doesn't mean I think he'll win)

Hallendale Beach

Okay, this is a turf race, and although I usually pay about as much attention to turf races before the Derby as I do to steeplechasing, Babaro unfortunately proved that you can't count the grass runners out of the Triple Crown. Heading up this one is Cowboy Cal (Giants Causeway-Texas Tammy by Seeking the Gold), who some are surprised is being kept in grass company, given that Todd Pletcher seems to be pointing him at the Derby. I don't call that surprising, I call that not actually pointing the horse for the Derby. But, whatever. The horse certainly has the pedigree and the background to win this race, so he's pretty hard to ignore. Plus, I'm not suspecting any surprises. Meanwhile, Why Tonto is worth a look, if only because his sire (Indian Charlie) has just been having a banner year so far. Cannonball hasn't been out of the money since they put him on turf and, though I hate to back a gelding pre-Derby, he's looked good in New York. In all honesty, I know next to nothing about the rest of the field, so here's the picks:

1. Cowboy Cal
2. Why Tonto
3. Cannonball

Endeavor Stakes- notably, not a Derby prep

As much as I like Dreaming of Anna (Rahy-Justenuffheart by Broad Brush), she never seems to do all that well after a layoff. I won't count her out, I just won't put her at number one. Lear's Princess (Lear Fan-Pretty City by Carson City) is coming off a disastrous Breeder's Cup Distaff finish (10th), but really, can we count anybody's performance over that slop? Before that she was 2-2-0 in stakes company and had just beat champion Rags to Riches (possibly injured) in the Gazelle. Take the Ribbon will likely be up there, but I like Meribel. Why? Well, sometimes I just don't have a good reason.

1. Lear's Princess
2. Meribel
3. Dreamining of Anna

In other news, J Be K (Silver Deputy- Major Wager by Valid Wager) was a rousing winner in just his second start, going 6f in 1:10. Pressed early by Escrow for a half mile in a sharp 45:03, he pulled away from the other contenders easily and won by 7 and a half going away to remain a perfect two for two. And it wasn't even a synthetic racetrack (point of fact, he was one of the horses recently ripped from Baffert's stable by his owner to escape the southern California debacle). It's hard at this time of the year when everybody's thinking "Derby, derby, derby" to get hot on a sprinter, and really, that's all this horse ever looks to be. But there is one connection: he was ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan, one of my Road to the Roses jocks, and the pilot of Pyro in last week's Risen Star. I've never cared for jockeys much, but I could grow to like this guy.

Premium Tap (Pleasant Tap-Premium Red by Thirty Six Red) , another consistent horse whose career I followed closely, could only manage a 4th yesterday in the G1-KSA Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup (note: still in the money, I do love this horse). However, what's this all about?

"Premium Tap, now named Allam, was defeated by just over three lengths."

They changed his name? How did I miss this nugget previously? Don't they know you don't change a horse's name midstream? I mean, isn't there a superstition against that sort of thing like there is for ships?

Settling into the "not surprising" category, Etched (Forestry-Unbridled Elain by Unbridleds Song), an impressive two-year old in the states last year, was fourth in Thursday's G3 UAE Guineas S. in Dubai. Previously undefeated, Etched lost to the (get this) 4-year old Honour Devil. Okay, I know I'm not the only one who thinks shipping a 3-year old to Dubai is not a good way to train him for a classic Triple Crown run in the states. But seriously, who runs a baby in his first start as a three year old against older horses? Mind you, Honour Devil does appear to have been bred in the southern hemisphere, so we may have a timing issue going on here, but still...